Scientists solve 1840s space weather mystery
Scientists solve 1840s space weather mystery
科学家破解 19 世纪 40 年代的太空天气之谜
The infamous Carrington Event of 1859 has long been considered the first extreme space weather event, but there have been reports of minor disturbances to telegraph equipment during geomagnetic storms since the late 1840s. 臭名昭著的 1859 年卡林顿事件（Carrington Event）长期以来一直被认为是第一次极端太空天气事件，但自 19 世纪 40 年代末以来，一直有关于地磁暴期间电报设备受到轻微干扰的报道。
In 2013, scholars discovered an anonymous report published in 1871 in Nature describing how a “very intense magnetic disturbance” disrupted rail travel in Exeter on the southern coast of England in October 1841. If accurate, this would be the earliest such account. However, according to a paper published in the journal Space Weather, that 1841 date is most likely a typo, with the real railway disruption occurring several years later. 2013 年，学者们在 1871 年出版的《自然》杂志上发现了一篇匿名报道，描述了 1841 年 10 月英国南海岸埃克塞特（Exeter）发生的一次“非常强烈的磁扰动”，导致铁路交通中断。如果属实，这将是此类事件最早的记录。然而，根据发表在《太空天气》（Space Weather）期刊上的一篇论文，1841 年这个日期很可能是笔误，真正的铁路中断事件发生在几年之后。
“Space weather is often discussed as a modern challenge because of our dependence on technologies such as satellites, communications systems and electricity networks,” said co-author Jim Wild of Lancaster University. “What this study shows is that society has been experiencing the effects of space weather on technology for almost as long as electrical technologies have existed. The Exeter train delay is a fascinating story because it sits right at the point where emerging technologies first began to encounter the realities of the space environment.” 兰卡斯特大学的合著者吉姆·怀尔德（Jim Wild）表示：“由于我们对卫星、通信系统和电力网络等技术的依赖，太空天气常被视为现代挑战。但这项研究表明，人类社会在电气技术诞生之初，就已经开始受到太空天气对技术影响的困扰。埃克塞特火车延误事件是一个引人入胜的故事，因为它恰好发生在新兴技术首次开始面对太空环境现实的节点上。”
The Carrington Event remains the most powerful geomagnetic storm in the scientific record, with strong auroral displays occurring all over the world, causing sparking and even a few fires in telegraph stations. Some of the auroras were so bright that people reported being able to read the newspaper by their light. 卡林顿事件仍然是科学记录中最强大的地磁暴，当时全球各地都出现了强烈的极光，导致电报站出现火花，甚至引发了几起火灾。有些极光非常明亮，以至于人们报告说可以在极光下阅读报纸。
The telegraph was a relatively new technology at the time, having first emerged in the 1830s, and the geomagnetically induced current—from a likely coronal mass injection from the Sun—knocked out telegraph systems. Some operators found they were still able to transmit and receive messages even after disconnecting the power supply, relying just on the powerful auroral current. 电报在当时是一项相对较新的技术，始于 19 世纪 30 年代。由太阳日冕物质抛射引起的地磁感应电流导致了电报系统的瘫痪。一些操作员发现，即使在断开电源后，仅依靠强大的极光电流，他们仍然能够发送和接收信息。
Were a similarly intense geomagnetic storm to occur today, it would likely seriously damage the electrical power grid, causing widespread outages and blackouts, as well as disrupting satellite communications. That’s why scientists are so keen to learn more about past geomagnetic disturbances: It will help them strengthen future predictions in order to mitigate any damaging effects. 如果今天发生同样强度的地磁暴，很可能会严重破坏电网，导致大范围停电，并干扰卫星通信。这就是为什么科学家们如此渴望了解过去地磁扰动的原因：这将有助于他们加强未来的预测，从而减轻任何破坏性影响。
Wild and his co-authors were intrigued by the anonymous Nature report of a geomagnetic disturbance on October 18, 1841. Most emerging railway companies had incorporated electrical telegraphs to provide signals for train control systems to avoid collisions. The alleged 1841 disturbance was significant enough that it caused a 16-minute delay in the departure of a 10:05 PM express train at Exeter, because the telegraph operator couldn’t determine whether the rail line was clear or occupied by another train. 怀尔德和他的合著者对 1841 年 10 月 18 日那篇关于地磁扰动的匿名《自然》报道产生了浓厚兴趣。当时大多数新兴铁路公司都采用了电报来提供列车控制系统的信号，以避免碰撞。据称，1841 年的那次扰动非常严重，导致埃克塞特一列晚上 10:05 出发的特快列车延误了 16 分钟，因为电报员无法确定铁路线是畅通的还是被另一列火车占用。
Searching the archives
查阅档案
However, Wild et al. questioned the accuracy of the report. Not only was the author anonymous, but the Nature paper had been published 30 years after the claimed geomagnetic disturbance took place. A search of historical archives revealed that the South Devon Railway Company built the tracks between Exeter and Plymouth in stages—and construction was not approved by Parliament until July 1844. The relevant section of track didn’t open until May 30, 1846, five years after the reported delay. So the anonymous Nature report could not be accurate. 然而，怀尔德等人对该报道的准确性提出了质疑。不仅作者是匿名的，而且这篇《自然》论文是在声称的地磁扰动发生 30 年后才发表的。查阅历史档案显示，南德文郡铁路公司（South Devon Railway Company）是分阶段修建埃克塞特和普利茅斯之间的轨道的，而该工程直到 1844 年 7 月才获得议会批准。相关路段直到 1846 年 5 月 30 日才开通，比报道中的延误时间晚了五年。因此，这篇匿名的《自然》报道不可能是准确的。
Wild et al. were unable to locate the original source material for that 1871 Nature article, but they did find the publisher’s original copy with a handwritten annotation: “N. [J.] Holmes.” They concluded the author was most likely a prominent electrical engineer named Nathaniel John Holmes, who was involved in the deployment of undersea telegraph cables across parts of the North Sea. 怀尔德等人无法找到那篇 1871 年《自然》文章的原始资料，但他们确实找到了出版商的原始副本，上面有手写批注：“N. [J.] Holmes”。他们推断作者很可能是一位名叫纳撒尼尔·约翰·霍姆斯（Nathaniel John Holmes）的著名电气工程师，他曾参与北海部分地区海底电缆的铺设工作。
In 1871, Holmes was living in Hampstead, about a mile away from where Nature editor Sir Norman Lockyer lived. Furthermore, the authors also found contemporary newspaper accounts of Holmes delivering a lecture on chemical effects of the solar spectrum in Scotland. So Holmes was clearly interested in solar activity and was familiar with Lockyer’s discovery of helium lines in solar spectra. There is also an 1877 letter from Holmes inviting Lockyer for a visit, indicating they had a business relationship of some kind. 1871 年，霍姆斯住在汉普斯特德（Hampstead），距离《自然》杂志编辑诺曼·洛克耶爵士（Sir Norman Lockyer）的住处约一英里。此外，作者还发现了当时报纸关于霍姆斯在苏格兰发表关于太阳光谱化学效应讲座的报道。因此，霍姆斯显然对太阳活动很感兴趣，并且熟悉洛克耶在太阳光谱中发现氦线的成就。还有一封 1877 年霍姆斯邀请洛克耶访问的信件，表明他们之间存在某种业务关系。
That still did not explain the discrepancy between the reported 1841 date for the Exeter train delay and historical records. “No citation is provided that would enable an investigation into the veracity of the statement,” Wild et al. wrote. “The remarkable claim that [the operators] ‘reported next morning that someone was playing tricks with the instruments’ hints that this account may have originated from a contemporary newspaper report or suchlike, but we have been unable to find any report that included this phrase or any language to this effect.” 但这仍然无法解释埃克塞特火车延误报道中 1841 年的日期与历史记录之间的差异。怀尔德等人写道：“文中没有提供任何引文来核实该说法的真实性。文中提到操作员‘第二天早上报告说有人在仪器上搞鬼’，这暗示该说法可能源自当时的报纸报道之类，但我们无法找到任何包含此短语或类似表述的报道。”
Wild and his co-authors next turned to archival scientific records, specifically the earliest magnetograms recorded at the Greenwich magnetic observatory in London. There is a record of “extraordinary” observations of a magnetic field, indicating strong geomagnetic storms, as far back as 1840, but no unusual activity, like aurora, was reported in England for October 18, 1841. 怀尔德和他的合著者随后转向了科学档案记录，特别是伦敦格林威治磁力观测站记录的最早的磁强计图表。记录显示，早在 1840 年就有“非同寻常”的磁场观测记录，表明当时存在强烈的地磁暴，但在 1841 年 10 月 18 日，英国并没有关于极光等异常活动的报道。
However, there was strong geomagnetic activity around October 18, 1848, confirmed in contemporary newspaper accounts and by sunspot observations made by British astronomer Temple Chevallier on October 19, 1848. When Wild et al. consulted contemporary railway timetables, they found references to a 10:05 pm express train departing from Exeter between March 11, 1848, and July 26, 1849. They suggest that the original 1841 date mentioned in the Nature paper was a typographical error and that the event occurred but the year was wrong. 然而，在 1848 年 10 月 18 日前后确实存在强烈的地磁活动，这得到了当时报纸报道以及英国天文学家坦普尔·谢瓦利埃（Temple Chevallier）于 1848 年 10 月 19 日进行的太阳黑子观测的证实。当怀尔德等人查阅当时的铁路时刻表时，他们发现了 1848 年 3 月 11 日至 1849 年 7 月 26 日期间从埃克塞特出发的晚上 10:05 特快列车的记录。他们认为，《自然》杂志论文中提到的 1841 年是笔误，事件确实发生过，但年份错了。