Experts worry about Nvidia’s AI chip sales in China and influence over Trump

专家担忧英伟达在华AI芯片销售及其对特朗普的影响

On its face, the recent summit between Donald Trump and China’s president Xi Jinping didn’t change much in the world of AI regulation. Export controls were not discussed, with neither country seemingly interested in making concessions. An already tenuous trade truce was temporarily extended for just two months, and looming US controls that could drop soon could easily end that and trigger China to retaliate by cutting off exports of rare earths, analysts expect. 从表面上看，唐纳德·特朗普与中国国家主席习近平最近的峰会并没有给人工智能监管领域带来太大改变。双方并未讨论出口管制问题，两国似乎都没有做出让步的意愿。分析人士预计，原本脆弱的贸易休战协议仅被临时延长了两个月，而美国即将出台的管制措施很可能打破这一局面，并引发中国通过切断稀土出口进行报复。

However, in the background of these shaky talks, Nvidia appeared to notch a big win, as China is currently mulling relaxing controls and allowing some of its biggest AI firms to import perhaps millions more of Nvidia’s banned chips over the next year. Sources familiar with China’s talks told The Information that China’s tech oversight arm, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, asked Alibaba and ByteDance to share plans to buy Nvidia’s RTX Pro 5500 chips. Although these are gaming chips, China asked firms to detail how they plan to use them, with expectations that chips could be put into servers to help power the country’s most in-demand AI models. 然而，在这些不稳定的会谈背后，英伟达似乎取得了一场重大胜利。目前，中国正在考虑放宽管制，允许其国内一些大型人工智能公司在未来一年内进口数百万颗英伟达此前被禁的芯片。据熟悉中国会谈情况的消息人士向《The Information》透露，中国的科技监管部门——工业和信息化部，已要求阿里巴巴和字节跳动分享购买英伟达 RTX Pro 5500 芯片的计划。尽管这些是游戏芯片，但中方要求企业详细说明其使用计划，外界预计这些芯片可能会被安装在服务器中，以支持该国需求最旺盛的人工智能模型。

Increasingly, Trump looks to Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang for advice on AI, but not everybody agrees that what’s good for Nvidia is good for the United States. Already the world’s most valuable company, Nvidia would obviously profit enormously in a world where risks are downplayed, and both countries’ priorities remain powering rapid developments in frontier AI without pumping the brakes. Some critics worry that Nvidia’s profit motivations may be steering Trump’s thinking at a pivotal moment when it may matter how well a president actually understands the risks of a new technology. 特朗普越来越倾向于向英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋寻求人工智能方面的建议，但并非所有人都认同“对英伟达有利的就一定对美国有利”。作为全球市值最高的公司，英伟达显然会在一个淡化风险、且两国都优先考虑在不踩刹车的情况下推动前沿人工智能快速发展的世界中获利巨大。一些批评人士担心，在总统对新技术风险的理解至关重要的关键时刻，英伟达的利润动机可能正在左右特朗普的决策。

Trump “completely aligned” with Nvidia

特朗普与英伟达“完全一致”

For Nvidia, a big goal since Trump took office was to open up more of China’s market so that Nvidia could start selling chips that were restricted during Joe Biden’s administration. Huang has blamed US export controls for cutting Nvidia’s share of China’s advanced AI chip market from about 95 percent to zero, The Information reported. Trump was not an instant ally. Instead, he came into office asking “What the hell is Nvidia?” and rather than loosening Biden’s export controls, he initially tightened them further, most notably by banning exports of H200 chips to China. 对于英伟达而言，自特朗普上任以来，其一大目标就是进一步打开中国市场，以便能够销售在乔·拜登政府时期受到限制的芯片。据《The Information》报道，黄仁勋曾指责美国的出口管制导致英伟达在中国高端AI芯片市场的份额从约 95% 降至零。特朗普起初并非英伟达的盟友。相反，他刚上任时曾问“英伟达到底是什么鬼东西？”，并且不仅没有放宽拜登时期的出口管制，反而最初进一步收紧了管制，最显著的举措就是禁止向中国出口 H200 芯片。

Trump was even thinking about breaking Nvidia up, expecting that stoking more competition among chipmakers domestically was crucial to America winning the so-called “AI race” with China. But then he met Huang over dinner at Mar-a-Lago, where Trump said he “learned the facts of life” and understood that Nvidia as a firm is an “amazing” AI leader. Ignoring warnings from lawmakers and national security experts, Trump lifted the export controls on H200 chips, which China eventually allowed to be sold to some firms. 特朗普甚至曾考虑拆分英伟达，认为在国内芯片制造商之间激发更多竞争对于美国赢得所谓的对华“AI竞赛”至关重要。但后来他在海湖庄园与黄仁勋共进晚餐，特朗普称自己“了解了生活真相”，并认识到英伟达是一家“了不起的”AI领军企业。无视立法者和国家安全专家的警告，特朗普解除了对 H200 芯片的出口管制，中国最终也允许这些芯片向部分企业销售。

Since then, Trump and Huang have appeared together in public repeatedly, and they regularly talk by phone, according to Stephen Witt, the author of The Thinking Machine: Jensen Huang, Nvidia, And The World’s Most Coveted Microchip. In an interview discussing Huang’s influence over Trump, Witt told NPR that Trump’s recent claims—suggesting that it’s a “hoax” that AI might destroy humanity and that instead AI will be an economic boon—are “exactly Jensen’s talking points.” 据《思维机器：黄仁勋、英伟达与全球最令人垂涎的微芯片》一书的作者斯蒂芬·威特（Stephen Witt）称，自那以后，特朗普和黄仁勋多次共同公开露面，并经常通电话。在讨论黄仁勋对特朗普影响力的采访中，威特告诉 NPR，特朗普最近声称“AI可能毁灭人类是一个骗局”，并认为AI将带来经济繁荣，这些观点“完全是黄仁勋的谈话要点”。

“Jensen is now the president’s most influential adviser on technology issues,” Witt said. “The two have become quite close.” Witt spent time with “tons” of people in the AI industry who share Huang’s views, he told NPR. And like Huang, they tended to downplay risks that software developers—including Nvidia’s biggest customers like Anthropic and OpenAI—are right now urging the White House to take seriously, he found. “黄仁勋现在是总统在技术问题上最有影响力的顾问，”威特说，“两人关系非常密切。”威特告诉 NPR，他与AI行业中“大量”持有黄仁勋观点的人交流过。他发现，这些人像黄仁勋一样，倾向于淡化那些软件开发者（包括英伟达最大的客户如 Anthropic 和 OpenAI）目前正敦促白宫认真对待的风险。

“Most of the hardware people, most of the people who designed the networking equipment and the microchips, feel like Jensen does,” Witt said. “They tend to have a very low sense of risk regarding this technology. They just don’t see it.” He said this debate has been going on between the two camps for the past 10 years and “neither camp has moved at all.” With Huang growing closer to Trump, it seems likely the president will continue downplaying leading AI firms’ warnings and avoiding serious talks with China about their models’ risks. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed ahead of Trump’s talks with Xi that “the president is completely aligned with Jensen Huang, the CEO of Nvidia.” “大多数硬件从业者，大多数设计网络设备和微芯片的人，都和黄仁勋有一样的感觉，”威特说，“他们对这项技术的风险感知度非常低。他们根本看不到风险。”他表示，这两个阵营之间的争论在过去 10 年里一直持续，且“双方都没有任何动摇”。随着黄仁勋与特朗普的关系日益紧密，总统很可能会继续淡化领先AI公司的警告，并避免与中国就其模型风险进行严肃对话。财政部长斯科特·贝森特（Scott Bessent）在特朗普与习近平会谈前证实，“总统与英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋的立场完全一致。”

Nvidia downplays risks

英伟达淡化风险

According to The Information, China lifting export curbs on Nvidia’s gaming chips “would give Nvidia perhaps its best chance in more than a year to regain some momentum in China’s AI market.” If China gives the nod, ByteDance plans to order 1 million chips, which would automatically secure for Nvidia two quarters of projected sales. That would certainly help improve Nvidia’s financial outlook in China, as China’s delayed approval of H200 sales meant sales were dismal, comprising less than 1 percent of Nvidia’s data center revenue in the most recent quarter. 据《The Information》报道，中国解除对英伟达游戏芯片的出口限制，“将给英伟达提供一年多来最好的机会，以重拾其在中国AI市场的增长势头。”如果中国点头，字节跳动计划订购 100 万颗芯片，这将自动确保英伟达未来两个季度的销售额。这无疑将有助于改善英伟达在中国的财务前景，因为此前中国对 H200 销售审批的延迟导致其销售惨淡，在最近一个季度中仅占英伟达数据中心收入的不到 1%。

Andrew Yoon, a researcher at an AI safety nonprofit called CivAI, told CNBC that in the AI industry, “Nvidia is the most aggressive in terms of, let’s just make money.” “At every turn, they are really trying to just make sure whatever happens is good for Nvidia’s bottom line,” Yoon said. If the US and China continue to loosen controls, some experts fear that too many chips may end up being diverted to China. Eventually, that could cause US data centers to lose a precious domestic chip supply that’s currently making it possible to stay ahead on frontier AI, the thinking goes. AI安全非营利组织 CivAI 的研究员安德鲁·尹（Andrew Yoon）告诉 CNBC，在AI行业中，“英伟达在‘赚钱至上’这一点上是最激进的。”“在每一个转折点，他们真的只是在努力确保无论发生什么，都对英伟达的利润有利，”尹说。如果美中两国继续放宽管制，一些专家担心最终可能会有太多的芯片流向中国。人们认为，这最终可能导致美国数据中心失去宝贵的国内芯片供应，而正是这些供应目前使得美国能够在前沿AI领域保持领先。

Nvidia’s reporting suggests that as of now, the countries don’t compete for resources, though. In the first half of 2026, Nvidia reportedly took a $400 million hit due to vast quantities of unsold H200 chips. No American firms want those chips, s 英伟达的报告显示，目前两国在资源上并不存在竞争。据报道，在 2026 年上半年，由于大量 H200 芯片滞销，英伟达损失了 4 亿美元。没有美国公司想要这些芯片，……