NASA has a Dragon dilemma, and there appear to be no good answers
NASA has a Dragon dilemma, and there appear to be no good answers
NASA 面临“龙”飞船困境，似乎并无良策
For two decades, largely in service to the International Space Station, NASA has sought to foster an “economy” in low-Earth orbit. Twenty years ago, with a program to develop private spacecraft for cargo delivery to the space station, NASA sought to “stimulate efforts within the private sector to develop and operate safe, reliable, and cost-effective commercial space transportation systems.” In recent years this has expanded to creating an entire commercial ecosystem in orbit, with transportation, space stations, manufacturing, tourism, and more, such that NASA is one of many customers in the market.
二十年来，NASA 主要为了服务国际空间站，一直致力于培育近地轨道“经济”。二十年前，通过一项开发用于向空间站运送货物的私人航天器计划，NASA 试图“刺激私营部门的努力，以开发和运营安全、可靠且具有成本效益的商业空间运输系统”。近年来，这一目标已扩展到在轨道上创建一个完整的商业生态系统，涵盖运输、空间站、制造、旅游等领域，使 NASA 成为市场上的众多客户之一。
In April 2024, the space agency explicitly laid out its philosophy: “NASA supports a robust commercial space economy that advances American industry and promotes technological discovery through in-space work and research. NASA remains committed to fostering innovation and collaboration within the American space industry.” But just two years later, there are growing questions about the viability of this. As the second space race heats up, NASA has become more interested in focusing on the lunar surface, with a robust Moon base. SpaceX has signaled it no longer wants to be in the business of flying astronauts into low-Earth orbit. Today, the grand plans for a low-Earth orbit economy, at least involving humans, appear to be going sideways. So what happened, and why does it matter? Ars spoke with a number of industry sources, on background, to provide some answers.
2024 年 4 月，该航天局明确阐述了其理念：“NASA 支持一个强大的商业航天经济，通过太空工作和研究推动美国工业发展并促进技术发现。NASA 始终致力于促进美国航天工业内部的创新与合作。”然而仅仅两年后，人们对其可行性的质疑日益增加。随着第二次太空竞赛升温，NASA 对专注于月球表面及建立稳固的月球基地表现出更浓厚的兴趣。SpaceX 已发出信号，表示不再希望从事将宇航员送入近地轨道的业务。如今，关于近地轨道经济（至少是涉及人类活动的经济）的宏伟计划似乎正偏离轨道。那么发生了什么？为什么这很重要？Ars 采访了多位行业消息人士，以提供一些答案。
Q. What precipitated this crisis? 问：是什么引发了这场危机？
A. In recent months, SpaceX has made it clear to NASA that it no longer wishes to fly its Crew Dragon spacecraft, or the Falcon 9 rocket, on missions to low-Earth orbit. The company has agreed to support the International Space Station until 2030. But after that, SpaceX intends to retire the spacecraft. SpaceX has told companies developing private space stations for low-Earth orbit, including Axiom Space, Voyager Space, and Vast Space, that they cannot order Crew Dragon missions for their habitats.
答： 近几个月来，SpaceX 已向 NASA 明确表示，不再希望执行其“载人龙”飞船或“猎鹰 9 号”火箭的近地轨道任务。该公司已同意支持国际空间站至 2030 年，但在此之后，SpaceX 打算让该航天器退役。SpaceX 已告知包括 Axiom Space、Voyager Space 和 Vast Space 在内的多家正在开发近地轨道私人空间站的公司，他们无法为其空间站预订“载人龙”飞船任务。
Q. Can NASA compel SpaceX to keep flying Dragon? 问：NASA 能强迫 SpaceX 继续飞行“龙”飞船吗？
A. NASA invested $3.1 billion in the development and certification of Crew Dragon as part of the Commercial Crew Program. But SpaceX was only compelled to fly half a dozen missions. It has flown 13 missions for NASA to the space station, and will launch another one in a few days. The company had recently agreed to keep flying through the Crew-17 mission. SpaceX has therefore more than fulfilled its contract obligations to NASA.
答： 作为商业载人航天计划的一部分，NASA 在“载人龙”飞船的开发和认证上投入了 31 亿美元。但 SpaceX 当时仅被要求执行六次任务。目前它已为 NASA 执行了 13 次空间站任务，并将在几天后发射另一次。该公司最近同意继续飞行至 Crew-17 任务。因此，SpaceX 已经超额完成了对 NASA 的合同义务。
Q. But isn’t NASA a really important customer for SpaceX? 问：但 NASA 对 SpaceX 来说不是非常重要的客户吗？
A. It was in the past, yes. But SpaceX now derives a majority of its revenue from Starlink, and that proportion is likely to grow even more. Additionally, as part of the process of going public earlier this year, in financial filings, SpaceX made clear that it envisions a vast majority of its future revenue will come from Starlink and orbital data centers. The category of “space enabled solutions,” of which NASA is a fraction, represented approximately 1 percent of what SpaceX views as its “total addressable market.” In other words, NASA needs SpaceX more than SpaceX needs NASA. Going forward, SpaceX wants to focus on launching its own payloads—on the Starship rocket. NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman recognized this reality during a news conference on Monday, saying, “I do not think it’s a secret that SpaceX intends to sunset older platforms like Falcon and Dragon as they concentrate on their next-generation capability, Starship.”
答： 过去确实如此。但 SpaceX 现在的大部分收入来自“星链”（Starlink），而且这一比例可能会进一步增长。此外，作为今年早些时候上市流程的一部分，SpaceX 在财务文件中明确表示，其预计未来绝大部分收入将来自“星链”和轨道数据中心。NASA 所属的“太空赋能解决方案”类别仅占 SpaceX 认为的“总可寻址市场”的约 1%。换句话说，NASA 对 SpaceX 的需求远大于 SpaceX 对 NASA 的需求。展望未来，SpaceX 希望专注于利用“星舰”（Starship）火箭发射自己的载荷。NASA 局长贾里德·艾萨克曼（Jared Isaacman）在周一的新闻发布会上承认了这一现实，他表示：“我认为 SpaceX 打算淘汰像‘猎鹰’和‘龙’这样的旧平台，转而专注于其下一代能力‘星舰’，这已经不是什么秘密了。”
Q. What about Starship? 问：那“星舰”呢？
A. Four astronauts currently launch on Dragon. Starship could potentially bring dozens of astronauts into orbit at a time. That would be revolutionary for access to low-Earth orbit and an economy there. However, SpaceX has told NASA it is not interested in developing Starship for human launches into Earth orbit at this time. (Again, they’re focused on their own payloads). Ascent and entry of Starship, carrying humans, would raise a tangle of safety and regulatory concerns and is not a priority for the time being. NASA has no real way to compel SpaceX, and any political capital the space agency might expend on Starship is going to be focused on getting a variant of the vehicle for a “Human Landing System” as part of the Artemis Moon program rather than human launches from Earth.
答： 目前有四名宇航员乘坐“龙”飞船发射。而“星舰”一次性可以将数十名宇航员送入轨道。这对进入近地轨道及其经济发展将是革命性的。然而，SpaceX 已告知 NASA，目前对开发用于地球轨道载人发射的“星舰”不感兴趣（再次强调，他们专注于自己的载荷）。载人“星舰”的上升和进入过程会引发一系列安全和监管问题，目前并非其优先事项。NASA 实际上无法强迫 SpaceX，且该机构在“星舰”上可能投入的任何政治资本，都将集中于获取该载具的变体，用于“阿尔忒弥斯”登月计划的“人类着陆系统”，而不是从地球出发的载人发射。
Q. What’s happening with Boeing? 问：波音公司的情况如何？
A. Boeing was NASA’s other partner in the Commercial Crew program. The agency has invested $5.1 billion to date in Boeing to develop the Starliner spacecraft. Despite this, Boeing has yet to fly a single operational mission to the space station. The news this week is that, despite these struggles, NASA will invest $359 million more to support the company’s efforts to fix Starliner’s propulsion system and certify the Vulcan rocket for new missions. It is NASA’s hope that Starliner can supplement astronaut missions during the remainder of the International Space Station’s lifetime, and then be available for private space station operators.
答： 波音是 NASA 商业载人航天计划的另一个合作伙伴。迄今为止，NASA 已向波音投资 51 亿美元用于开发“星际客机”（Starliner）飞船。尽管如此，波音尚未执行过一次前往空间站的运营任务。本周的消息是，尽管困难重重，NASA 仍将再投资 3.59 亿美元，支持该公司修复“星际客机”推进系统并为“火神”火箭进行新任务认证的努力。NASA 希望“星际客机”能在国际空间站剩余寿命期间补充宇航员任务，并随后供私人空间站运营商使用。
Q. Is this a good plan? 问：这是一个好计划吗？
A. A lot of people don’t like it. Some critics say NASA has basically handed Boeing (not a particularly benevolent monopolist) and Starliner a monopoly on Western human spaceflight to low-Earth orbit for the next 10 or 20 years. This may effectively end any hope of a low-Earth orbit economy that involves humans in space. However, others say NASA faced few good choices. And given NASA’s extraordinary investments in Boeing to date, it would have been fiscally irresponsible to abandon Starliner now. NASA funded two companies as part of the Commercial Crew program. If one of them is walking away, it makes sense to support the remaining one, even if there are legitimate concerns about Boeing’s past performance.
答： 很多人并不喜欢这个计划。一些批评者认为，NASA 基本上将未来 10 到 20 年西方近地轨道载人航天的垄断权交给了波音（一个并非特别仁慈的垄断者）及其“星际客机”。这可能会彻底终结任何涉及人类太空活动的近地轨道经济的希望。然而，另一些人则认为 NASA 面临的选择很少。考虑到 NASA 迄今为止对波音的巨额投资，现在放弃“星际客机”在财政上是不负责任的。NASA 在商业载人航天计划中资助了两家公司。如果其中一家退出，支持剩下的一家是合理的，即使人们对波音过去的表现存在合理的担忧。
Q. What else might NASA have done? 问：NASA 还能做些什么？
A. Some people wanted to see NASA fund a new competition, a Commercial Crew 2.0 for the… 答： 一些人希望看到 NASA 资助一场新的竞赛，即“商业载人航天 2.0”计划，用于……