AI researchers put out videos saying superintelligence is ‘exactly as dangerous as it sounds’
AI researchers put out videos saying superintelligence is ‘exactly as dangerous as it sounds’
AI 研究人员发布视频称，超级智能“正如听起来那样危险”
A series of videos from people inside the industry building AI technology echoed some of the ‘doomer’ warnings others have sounded recently. 一系列来自人工智能技术行业内部人士的视频，呼应了近期其他人所发出的“末日论”警告。
“The chance of human extinction is about a coin flip, in my view,” Geoffrey Irving, a former OpenAI and Google DeepMind employee, said in a new interview. It’s one of a dozen interviews with AI researchers, including current and former employees at OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic. Palisade Research, which says it’s a nonprofit studying AIs’ capabilities and motivations, collected and launched the interviews on frominside.ai. “在我看来，人类灭绝的几率大约相当于掷硬币，”前 OpenAI 和 Google DeepMind 员工 Geoffrey Irving 在一次新采访中说道。这是针对人工智能研究人员进行的十几项采访之一，受访者包括 OpenAI、Google 和 Anthropic 的现任及前任员工。Palisade Research 自称是一家研究人工智能能力与动机的非营利组织，他们收集并发布了这些采访内容，网址为 frominside.ai。
Several of the researchers joined Irving in warning about the possibility AI could drive humans extinct. Neel Nanda, a Google DeepMind research scientist, said there’s “at least a 10 percent chance that it causes human extinction, and that is ridiculously high.” We noted comments from both Nanda and Irving in a recent report about the “AI safety” community, and how difficult it is to nail down what that term means, or what anyone should do about it, and even these videos don’t have one cohesive solution to offer. 多位研究人员与 Irving 一道，对人工智能可能导致人类灭绝的可能性发出了警告。Google DeepMind 的研究科学家 Neel Nanda 表示，“人工智能导致人类灭绝的几率至少有 10%，这高得离谱。”我们在最近一篇关于“人工智能安全”社区的报道中提到了 Nanda 和 Irving 的评论，并指出要明确该术语的含义或确定应对措施是多么困难，即便是这些视频也未能提供一个统一的解决方案。
Former OpenAI researcher Daniel Kokotajlo went as far as claiming that superintelligent AI “would basically be god-like powerful,” and added, “unfortunately we don’t know how to control them at all. And so probably nobody would control them. This is exactly as dangerous as it sounds and must not be allowed to happen.” 前 OpenAI 研究员 Daniel Kokotajlo 甚至声称，超级智能 AI “基本上将拥有神一般的力量”，并补充道：“不幸的是，我们根本不知道如何控制它们。因此，可能没有人能控制它们。这正如听起来那样危险，绝不能让这种情况发生。”
While each video is available in full, the site also collects segments from multiple people speaking on similar topics, including whether this is all just hype or marketing, and why they would work on something that they believe is this dangerous. Some of the responses include Google’s Mary Phuong saying “I think you absolutely should be suspicious of what I’m saying because I am being paid by the lab,” and Nanda’s explanation that “If I did not believe that my work was directly reducing these existential risks, I would quit… These companies are not going to stop making these systems just because I quit.” 虽然每段视频都提供了完整版，但该网站还收集了多位人士针对相似话题的发言片段，包括这是否仅仅是炒作或营销，以及为什么他们会从事自己认为如此危险的工作。部分回应包括来自 Google 的 Mary Phuong 所说的：“我认为你绝对应该怀疑我的话，因为我正拿着实验室的薪水。”以及 Nanda 的解释：“如果我不相信我的工作能直接降低这些生存风险，我就会辞职……但这些公司不会因为我辞职就停止开发这些系统。”