AI needs $6T in annual revenue to justify data centre boom
AI needs $6T in annual revenue to justify data centre boom
人工智能行业需实现 6 万亿美元年营收，方能支撑数据中心建设热潮
The artificial intelligence industry needs to become creative with new propositions to earn $6 trillion in annual revenue by 2031 and justify the capital being deployed for data centres, a new report from Bain and Company has shown. 贝恩公司（Bain & Company）发布的一份最新报告显示，人工智能行业需要通过创新方案，在 2031 年前实现 6 万亿美元的年营收，以证明目前投入到数据中心建设中的巨额资本是合理的。
Revenue from new product development is projected to become the biggest contributor to the industry, estimated to generate about $4.2 trillion to fund the booming technology’s global market within the next half-decade, the US consultancy said in its latest technology report series on Tuesday. 这家美国咨询公司在周二发布的最新技术系列报告中指出，新产品开发带来的收入预计将成为该行业最大的贡献来源，预计在未来五年内将产生约 4.2 万亿美元，为这一蓬勃发展的技术全球市场提供资金支持。
That segment would include innovations in search, advertising, autonomy and physical AI, analysts at Boston-based Bain said. 总部位于波士顿的贝恩公司分析师表示，该领域将涵盖搜索、广告、自动驾驶和物理人工智能（Physical AI）等方面的创新。
Enterprise productivity would require $1 trillion to $1.4 trillion in revenue in order to support gains in areas such as software development, sales, marketing, customer service and IT operations, they said. 他们表示，企业生产力领域需要 1 万亿至 1.4 万亿美元的收入，以支持软件开发、销售、营销、客户服务和 IT 运营等领域的效率提升。
Absorption speed, defined as the pace at which companies can put AI to work, has become the “new competitive variable”, according to Bain, leading AI labs are investing upwards of $9.75 billion in engineering models to help companies assimilate faster, it said. 根据贝恩公司的说法，吸收速度（即企业将人工智能投入使用的节奏）已成为“新的竞争变量”。报告称，领先的人工智能实验室正在投入超过 97.5 亿美元用于工程模型开发，以帮助企业更快地消化和应用这些技术。
“The debate today is fixated on employee productivity. The economics of AI infrastructure demand trillions in new revenue beyond productivity gains. What the industry needs is a wave of innovation that will dwarf what mobile and cloud unlocked,” said David Crawford, chairman of Bain’s global technology practice and lead author of the report. 贝恩全球技术业务主席、该报告的主要作者大卫·克劳福德（David Crawford）表示：“当下的争论焦点集中在员工生产力上。但人工智能基础设施的经济性要求在生产力提升之外，必须创造数万亿美元的新收入。行业所需要的是一波能够超越移动互联网和云计算所带来的创新浪潮。”
Consumer-focused services, which includes subscriptions and advertising revenue, is seen to contribute $200 billion to $400 billion. This particular segment is widely acknowledged to be crucial for the industry as service providers continue to push AI-powered products to billions of users globally. 面向消费者的服务（包括订阅和广告收入）预计将贡献 2000 亿至 4000 亿美元。随着服务提供商持续向全球数十亿用户推广人工智能驱动的产品，这一细分领域被公认为对行业至关重要。
“New products and uses that don’t exist today will enable new markets and opportunities from abundant intelligence – these may include drug discovery, mental health and energy generation,” Bain said. 贝恩表示：“目前尚不存在的新产品和新用途，将通过充沛的智能能力开启新的市场和机遇——这些可能包括药物研发、心理健康和能源生产等领域。”
Justifying data centres
证明数据中心建设的合理性
Bain forecasts that annual spending on AI infrastructure might hit $1.5 trillion by 2031. Those expenses include new facilities, higher capacity and upgrades to the installed base of GPUs, memory and networking equipment. 贝恩预测，到 2031 年，人工智能基础设施的年度支出可能达到 1.5 万亿美元。这些支出包括新建设施、提升容量，以及对现有的 GPU、内存和网络设备进行升级。
If those capital expenditures amount to about a quarter of industry revenue – “an ambitious but reasonable percentage based on trends among cloud providers” – sustaining this level of investment would require an AI market approaching $6 trillion annually, Bain said. 贝恩指出，如果这些资本支出约占行业收入的四分之一——“基于云服务提供商的趋势，这是一个雄心勃勃但合理的比例”——那么要维持这一投资水平，就需要一个年规模接近 6 万亿美元的人工智能市场。
“The unprecedented speed and scale of the AI buildout, with billions flowing into chips, data centres, networks and power systems, have focused attention on the challenge of building capacity,” the report said. 报告称：“人工智能建设的前所未有的速度和规模，以及数十亿美元涌入芯片、数据中心、网络和电力系统，使人们将注意力集中在建设产能这一挑战上。”
“But the more important question may be whether enough economic value can be created to justify it.” “但更重要的问题或许是，能否创造足够的经济价值来证明这种投入的合理性。”
The size and cost of AI data centres is consistently accelerating, doubling approximately every 12 to 16 months, Bain said. For instance, the Prometheus data centre of Facebook parent Meta Platforms in Ohio currently had a capacity of 600MW at an estimated cost of $24 billion in 2025; that is projected to jump to as much as 2GW and $80 billion by 2027, data from research firm Epoch AI. 贝恩表示，人工智能数据中心的规模和成本正在持续加速增长，大约每 12 到 16 个月翻一番。例如，据研究公司 Epoch AI 的数据，Facebook 母公司 Meta Platforms 在俄亥俄州的 Prometheus 数据中心，2025 年的容量为 600MW，估计成本为 240 亿美元；预计到 2027 年，其容量将跃升至 2GW，成本将达到 800 亿美元。
By 2029, capacity at Prometheus is expected to jump to 5GW, at a cost of up to $175 billion, and by 2030, it would balloon to 9GW at $200 billion, San Francisco-based Epoch AI said. 总部位于旧金山的 Epoch AI 表示，到 2029 年，Prometheus 的容量预计将跃升至 5GW，成本高达 1750 亿美元；到 2030 年，其规模将膨胀至 9GW，成本达到 2000 亿美元。
Data centres would also need to address a number of challenges as more of them are built. These include adding grid capacity to power them, securing GPUs and other infrastructure components, a skilled workforce and retaining them “far above historical rates”, and issues on public opinion and regulations, such as pushback on resource use and noise pollution. 随着数据中心建设数量的增加，它们还需要应对一系列挑战。这些挑战包括增加电网容量以供电、确保 GPU 和其他基础设施组件的供应、培养并以“远高于历史水平”的比例留住技术人才，以及公众舆论和监管问题，例如对资源使用和噪音污染的抵制。
On the other hand, several governments are supporting the growth of the AI and data centres industries, including those in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, the EU, South Korea and the US, Bain said, noting that data centres are now central to technology innovation, economic growth and national sovereignty. 另一方面，贝恩指出，包括阿联酋、沙特阿拉伯、欧盟、韩国和美国在内的多个政府正在支持人工智能和数据中心行业的发展，并强调数据中心现在已成为技术创新、经济增长和国家主权的核心。
“Capital needs for data infrastructure will remain high … bottlenecks in power, semiconductors, and other inputs carry large capital needs of their own, opening additional entry points for investors,” Bain said. 贝恩表示：“数据基础设施的资本需求将保持高位……电力、半导体和其他投入要素的瓶颈本身就带来了巨大的资本需求，这为投资者提供了额外的切入点。”
“And as sovereign infrastructure becomes a bigger part of national strategies, partnerships offer both a way in and geographic diversification.” “随着主权基础设施在国家战略中占据越来越重要的地位，合作伙伴关系既提供了一种进入途径，也实现了地理上的多元化。”