Memory executives expect RAM shortage to continue through 2028

内存高管预计内存短缺将持续至 2028 年

Micron and Samsung executives this week said the memory shortage will continue for at least the next couple of years. Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra expects demand for the firm’s memory to exceed its available supply over that period, he told investors last night. 美光（Micron）和三星（Samsung）的高管本周表示，内存短缺至少还将持续几年。美光首席执行官桑杰·梅赫罗特拉（Sanjay Mehrotra）昨晚告诉投资者，他预计在此期间，市场对该公司内存的需求将超过其现有供应量。

Micron no longer sells consumer RAM, and Mehrotra’s statements refer to Micron’s business-to-business sales of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) for AI and DRAM for servers. However, his comments also have implications for consumer devices. Manufacturing capacity is prioritizing memory for AI and servers, limiting the supply of memory manufactured for consumer devices. 美光已不再销售消费级内存，梅赫罗特拉的言论主要针对美光面向企业客户销售的 AI 高带宽内存（HBM）和服务器 DRAM。然而，他的评论对消费电子设备也有影响。目前的制造产能正优先满足 AI 和服务器内存的需求，这限制了用于消费类设备的内存供应。

“Overall, supply-demand environment is only getting tighter,” Mehrotra said, per a transcript from Seeking Alpha. Micron plans to open new clean rooms for memory manufacturing in 2028, but Mehrotra expects supply to remain limited. 据 Seeking Alpha 的会议记录显示，梅赫罗特拉表示：“总体而言，供需环境只会变得更加紧张。”美光计划在 2028 年启用新的内存制造洁净室，但梅赫罗特拉预计供应仍将受限。

“Even after they are built, even after first wafer output, production ramps up only gradually in the clean rooms,” he said. “That’s just the nature of what it takes to bring up production, and with HBM going from 3E to a greater mix of 4 and 4E, and with the trade ratio that exists, that … creates headwinds with respect to supply growth. Node transitions of the future give less productivity gain per wafer as well.” “即使洁净室建成，即使产出了第一批晶圆，产能也只能逐步提升，”他说。“这就是提升产能的必然过程。随着 HBM 从 3E 转向 4 和 4E 的更多组合，以及现有的转换比率，这……给供应增长带来了阻力。未来的制程节点转换在每片晶圆上带来的生产力提升也越来越少。”

Seventy-five percent of Micron’s memory output for 2027 is already accounted for, and most of the company’s current memory sales discussions are about 2028, the CEO said. Additionally, demand for HBM is surpassing demand for Micron’s DRAM. “For 2027, a large part of the volume is already sold out for 2027 for HBM, and the prices are much higher than 2026 prices,” Mehrotra said. 这位首席执行官表示，美光 2027 年 75% 的内存产量已被预订，目前公司大部分内存销售洽谈都集中在 2028 年。此外，对 HBM 的需求正在超过对美光 DRAM 的需求。梅赫罗特拉说：“2027 年大部分 HBM 产能已经售罄，且价格远高于 2026 年。”

Micron doesn’t know when its supply will catch up with demand because the “demand trends of larger models, growing context, more concurrency, greater agents across enterprise, and consumer only continue to drive greater need for memory [and] greater need for memory content, as well as for higher performance memory,” Mehrotra said. 美光目前无法确定供应何时能赶上需求，因为梅赫罗特拉指出，“更大规模的模型、不断增长的上下文、更高的并发性、企业和消费者端更广泛的智能体应用等需求趋势，只会持续推动对内存的更大需求、对内存容量的更高需求，以及对高性能内存的更高需求。”

Mehrotra’s statements are supported by comments that Kim Taewoo, EVP at Micron competitor Samsung, made this week. He said HBM will account for almost 30 percent of DRAM manufacturers’ wafer capacity in 2027, compared to 20 percent this year, Reuters reported. That would limit the amount of DRAM made for consumer devices. 美光竞争对手三星的执行副总裁金泰宇（Kim Taewoo）本周发表的评论也印证了梅赫罗特拉的说法。据路透社报道，他表示，到 2027 年，HBM 将占 DRAM 制造商晶圆产能的近 30%，而今年这一比例为 20%。这将限制用于消费类设备的 DRAM 产量。

This year, Micron’s Crucial brand stopped selling RAM to consumers. It announced the change in December 2025, with EVP and chief business officer Sumit Sadana pointing to AI driving demand for data center memory and Micron’s interest in improving “supply and support for our larger, strategic customers in faster-growing segments.” 今年，美光旗下的 Crucial 品牌停止向消费者销售内存。该公司于 2025 年 12 月宣布了这一调整，执行副总裁兼首席商务官苏米特·萨达纳（Sumit Sadana）指出，AI 推动了数据中心内存的需求，美光希望借此改善“对增长更快的细分市场中大型战略客户的供应与支持”。

Consumers have already felt the memory crunch, as the shortage has raised costs for prebuilt PCs and pushed OEMs to offer lower RAM configurations at higher prices. Prices for other types of gadgets, including smartphones, streaming sticks, and gaming consoles, are also up. 消费者已经感受到了内存紧缺带来的影响，因为短缺推高了预装机（品牌台式机）的成本，并促使原始设备制造商（OEM）以更高的价格提供内存配置较低的产品。包括智能手机、流媒体电视棒和游戏机在内的其他各类电子产品价格也随之上涨。