Election Deniers Think the GOP’s Terrible Midterm Polling Is a ‘Psyop’
Election Deniers Think the GOP’s Terrible Midterm Polling Is a ‘Psyop’
选举否认者认为共和党糟糕的中期选举民调是一场“心理战”
Taking their lead from president Donald Trump, election deniers have dismissed the GOP’s terrible polling numbers by claiming the polls themselves are fake, a psyop, or a ploy to stop Republicans from turning out to vote in November. 在唐纳德·特朗普总统的带领下，选举否认者们对共和党糟糕的民调数据不屑一顾，声称这些民调本身就是虚假的、是一场“心理战”（psyop），或者是为了阻止共和党人在11月投票的策略。
Kevin Roberts, president of the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank, told Fox News that midterm election polling is a “psyop…to depress conservative turnout.” 保守派智库传统基金会（Heritage Foundation）主席凯文·罗伯茨（Kevin Roberts）在接受福克斯新闻采访时表示，中期选举民调是“一场旨在压低保守派投票率的‘心理战’”。
“The midterms are near,” Phillip Buchanan, the election denier and MAGA troll known online as Catturd, wrote to his four million followers on X. “The laughable fake polls are rolling out.” “中期选举临近了，”在网上被称为“Catturd”、以MAGA（让美国再次伟大）网络喷子身份著称的选举否认者菲利普·布坎南（Phillip Buchanan）在X上向他的400万粉丝写道，“可笑的虚假民调正在出炉。”
For over a decade, Trump has claimed without evidence that American elections have been impacted by fraud. In the wake of his loss in 2020, an entire online community and ecosystem of election denial groups sprung up to push the baseless allegation that former president Joe Biden stole the election from Trump. These claims have become central to the Republican Party’s belief system, to the point where hundreds of GOP candidates for federal and statewide elections in November have expressed doubts about the integrity of US elections. 十多年来，特朗普一直声称美国选举受到舞弊影响，但从未提供证据。在他2020年败选后，一个庞大的在线社区和选举否认团体生态系统应运而生，大肆宣扬前总统乔·拜登从特朗普手中窃取了选举结果的毫无根据的指控。这些主张已成为共和党信仰体系的核心，以至于数百名参加11月联邦和州级选举的共和党候选人都对美国选举的公正性表示怀疑。
And now, multiple polls have shown Trump’s approval rating at historic lows with Democrats leading in Senate races across the country in states Trump won easily in 2024. Reuters reported this week that Republicans are now pouring money into dozens of races they considered safe. 目前，多项民调显示特朗普的支持率处于历史低点，而在他2024年轻松获胜的州，民主党人在全国范围内的参议院竞选中处于领先地位。路透社本周报道称，共和党人现在正向数十个他们原本认为稳操胜券的选区投入资金。
Trump has called polls fake 39 times since returning to the White House last year, according to analysis from media watchdog Media Matters for America, including nine times in August alone. In one post on Truth Social last month, he claimed the polls were “demoralization operations” designed by Democrats to stop Republicans from voting. Speaking to reporters in the Oval Office on Monday, Trump again dismissed negative polling out of Iowa and stated: “The polls are fake.” 据媒体监督机构“美国媒体事务”（Media Matters for America）分析，自去年重返白宫以来，特朗普已39次称民调为虚假，仅8月份就说了9次。上个月，他在“真实社交”（Truth Social）上发帖称，这些民调是民主党设计的“士气打击行动”，旨在阻止共和党人投票。周一在椭圆形办公室对记者发表讲话时，特朗普再次驳斥了来自爱荷华州的负面民调，并宣称：“民调是假的。”
The White House didn’t respond to a request for comment, but as WIRED reported this week, Trump’s own aides are extremely concerned about the polling and the potential loss of both the House and Senate. “Oh, yeah, we’re going to get creamed,” one longtime Trumpworld operative told WIRED. 白宫没有回应置评请求，但正如《连线》（WIRED）本周报道的那样，特朗普自己的助手们对民调结果以及可能同时失去众议院和参议院控制权感到极度担忧。一位长期在特朗普阵营工作的幕僚告诉《连线》：“哦，是的，我们要惨败了。”
While the White House may be worried, figures in the election denial community have repeated Trump’s claims about fake polls. 尽管白宫可能感到担忧，但选举否认圈内的人物却在重复特朗普关于“虚假民调”的言论。
Steve Bannon, who has been among the loudest voices promoting election denial conspiracies for the last six years, also called the recent polling a “psyop,” adding: “I want to make sure everybody understands that our fate is still in our hands, no matter what the media is telling you, no matter what they’re saying about a blue tsunami, a blue wave.” 过去六年来一直是大声宣扬选举否认阴谋论的主要人物之一的史蒂夫·班农（Steve Bannon）也将近期的民调称为“心理战”，并补充道：“我想确保每个人都明白，我们的命运仍掌握在自己手中，无论媒体告诉你什么，无论他们如何谈论‘蓝色海啸’或‘蓝色浪潮’。”
Seth Keshel, a former Army colonel-turned election denial superstar who claims to have close ties to the White House, also branded the negative polls a “psyop,” adding on X: “Polling is so unethical now it should be outlawed.” 曾任陆军上校、后转型为选举否认“超级明星”并声称与白宫关系密切的塞斯·凯舍尔（Seth Keshel）也将负面民调贴上了“心理战”的标签，并在X上补充道：“现在的民调太不道德了，应该被取缔。”
Some MAGA figures have conceded that the low polling numbers reflect the reality of Trump’s failure to keep his promises. When right-wing podcaster and election denier Tim Pool suggested Trump’s low approval rating was the result of high gas prices and the ongoing war in Iran, however, Bill Mitchell, a MAGA political commentator with over half a million followers on X responded: “Maybe it’s fake polls.” 一些MAGA人物承认，低迷的民调数字反映了特朗普未能兑现承诺的现实。然而，当右翼播客主兼选举否认者蒂姆·普尔（Tim Pool）暗示特朗普支持率低是由于高油价和伊朗持续战争的结果时，在X上拥有超过50万粉丝的MAGA政治评论员比尔·米切尔（Bill Mitchell）回应道：“也许是因为虚假民调。”
Dozens and dozens of high profile MAGA influencers have weighed in. “Polls are fake. All 50 States are Red,” Julie Donuts, a prominent booster of election denial conspiracy theories with 220,000 followers on X, wrote. The post was accompanied by an image of a map showing widespread support for Trump that comes from 2016. 数十位高知名度的MAGA网红也纷纷发表意见。在X上拥有22万粉丝、著名的选举否认阴谋论推手朱莉·多纳茨（Julie Donuts）写道：“民调是假的。所有50个州都是红色的。”该帖文配有一张来自2016年的地图，显示了对特朗普的广泛支持。
Kambree Nelson, a MAGA influencer who worked for the America First Policy Institute and once suggested the moon had disappeared for a week, blamed the media for the fake polls, writing: “Theyre [sic] actually running the biggest scam of the election. Fake polls, puffball interviews, all designed to crush our spirit and keep us home. They’re terrified of the momentum they can feel building. Don’t fall for it.” 曾在“美国优先政策研究所”（America First Policy Institute）工作、曾声称月亮消失了一周的MAGA网红坎布里·尼尔森（Kambree Nelson）将虚假民调归咎于媒体，她写道：“他们实际上正在进行选举中最大的骗局。虚假民调、软性采访，所有这些都是为了摧毁我们的精神并让我们待在家里。他们对所感受到的（我们的）势头感到恐惧。别上当。”
The Maryland Election Integrity Group, which promotes baseless election denial conspiracy theories, shared a post on X that claimed without evidence that “polling has been skewed to favor Democrats by three points on average over the last FIVE cycles.” 推广毫无根据的选举否认阴谋论的“马里兰州选举诚信小组”（Maryland Election Integrity Group）在X上分享了一篇帖子，在没有证据的情况下声称：“在过去五个选举周期中，民调平均被扭曲了三个百分点，以偏袒民主党。”
In recent weeks, some election deniers have even suggested that polls never actually take place. “52 years old. I have never been ‘polled’. Polls are fake to sway votes,” David Freeman, an election denier and pro-Trump influencer known online as Gunther Eagleman, wrote on X. 最近几周，一些选举否认者甚至暗示民调根本从未真正进行过。在网上被称为“Gunther Eagleman”的选举否认者兼亲特朗普网红大卫·弗里曼（David Freeman）在X上写道：“52岁了。我从来没被‘民调’过。民调是用来左右选票的假货。”
But as one of the top commenters on the post points out, Freeman has repeatedly shared polling that is favorable towards Trump, writing: “Gunther LOVES polls when they are in his favor.” 但正如该帖文的一位热门评论者所指出的，弗里曼曾多次分享对特朗普有利的民调，并写道：“当民调对他有利时，Gunther可是爱死它们了。”