All hail electrification. But let’s talk about the hard part.
All hail electrification. But let’s talk about the hard part.
全面拥抱电气化：但让我们谈谈其中的难点
If one form of energy becomes the cheapest, most secure, and cleanest, you’d probably adjust your economy to use more of it, right? That’s one of the ideas underpinning a report the International Energy Agency issued last week about the global move toward electrification. 如果某种能源变得最廉价、最安全且最清洁，你大概会调整经济结构以更多地使用它，对吧？这正是国际能源署（IEA）上周发布的一份关于全球电气化进程报告背后的核心理念之一。
Fatih Birol, head of the IEA, discussed some of the concepts from the report the following day at the United Nations. “Many, many years in the energy world, we had three choices in front of us. Shall I choose the most secure energy option? Shall I choose the most economic energy option? Or shall I choose the cleanest energy option?” he asked. “We have to make choices, we have to make trade-offs but when we look at the world today, for the first time in years, all of these three objectives are getting aligned.” 国际能源署署长法提赫·比罗尔（Fatih Birol）次日在联合国讨论了该报告中的一些概念。“在能源领域，多年来我们一直面临三个选择：我该选择最安全的能源方案？最经济的方案？还是最清洁的方案？”他问道，“我们必须做出选择，必须进行权衡。但放眼当今世界，多年来我们第一次看到这三个目标正趋于一致。”
Birol’s referring to the “energy trilemma,” a concept in energy and economics research about the need to balance cost, security and environmental impact of sources and systems. He said those priorities are increasingly aligning in part because of the Iran war, which has driven up fuel prices and exacerbated concerns about energy security. 比罗尔所指的是“能源不可能三角”（energy trilemma），这是一个能源与经济研究中的概念，强调需要在能源来源和系统的成本、安全性和环境影响之间取得平衡。他表示，这些优先事项之所以日益趋同，部分原因是伊朗战争推高了燃料价格，并加剧了人们对能源安全的担忧。
It’s notable that the leader of the world’s leading energy research organization is so optimistic about electrification. I reached out to energy researchers this week to get their reaction. But first, some numbers: With $100 worth of gasoline, an internal-combustion-engine car would go 862 miles; with $100 worth of electricity, an electric vehicle would go 2,310 miles—nearly a threefold advantage for the EV. 全球领先能源研究机构的负责人对电气化如此乐观，这一点值得注意。本周我联系了多位能源研究人员以获取他们的反馈。但首先，让我们看一些数据：花费100美元购买汽油，内燃机汽车可以行驶862英里；而花费100美元购买电力，电动汽车可以行驶2,310英里——电动汽车的优势接近三倍。
For home heating, $100 would buy enough fuel for a gas boiler to provide 30 days of heating; it would also fund enough electricity for a heat pump to provide 42 days of heating—a 40 percent edge for the heat pump. The figures are 2025 global averages from the IEA report, and the gaps are probably larger today with gasoline and natural gas experiencing price spikes that exceed rising electricity costs. 在家庭供暖方面，100美元购买的燃料足以让燃气锅炉供暖30天；而同样的钱购买电力供热泵使用，则可供暖42天——热泵拥有40%的优势。这些数据来自IEA报告中的2025年全球平均值，考虑到目前汽油和天然气的价格涨幅超过了电价涨幅，实际差距可能更大。
Global electrification trends also tell the story. The world used 16.7 percent of its final energy—meaning the energy consumed by the end user—from electricity in 2000, and that share rose to 23.4 percent in 2025, according to the IEA. China has had the largest change, and North America was among the smallest in that period, a difference largely attributable to levels of renewable energy use and EV adoption. 全球电气化趋势也印证了这一点。根据IEA的数据，2000年全球最终能源（即终端用户消耗的能源）中，电力占比为16.7%，这一比例在2025年上升至23.4%。在此期间，中国的变化幅度最大，而北美则是变化最小的地区之一，这种差异主要归因于可再生能源的使用水平和电动汽车的普及程度。
But this doesn’t mean electrification is inevitable, according to energy-systems researchers. “I see today’s energy system more as a Rorschach test,” said David Victor, a professor of innovation and public policy at the University of California, San Diego. By that, he means different people see different things. He acknowledged it’s possible to view the trilemma as becoming aligned, but he still sees many obstacles. 然而，能源系统研究人员认为，这并不意味着电气化是不可避免的。“我认为当今的能源系统更像是一个罗夏墨迹测试，”加州大学圣地亚哥分校创新与公共政策教授大卫·维克多（David Victor）说。他的意思是，不同的人会看到不同的东西。他承认，将“能源不可能三角”视为趋于一致是有可能的，但他仍看到了许多障碍。
For example, he doesn’t expect to see a rapid shift to electrification for heavy trucks, maritime transport and aircraft. He also thinks trade barriers may hinder electrification, with countries seeing benefits of producing goods at home rather than relying on imports such as Chinese solar panels. “The trade-offs are inescapable,” he said. 例如，他预计重型卡车、海运和航空领域不会迅速转向电气化。他还认为贸易壁垒可能会阻碍电气化，因为各国更倾向于在国内生产商品，而不是依赖进口（如中国的太阳能电池板）。“权衡是不可避免的，”他说。
Some of the trade-offs are political, with elected officials and entrenched industries seeking to slow electrification, said Emily Grubert, an energy systems researcher at the University of Notre Dame. “I think [Birol is] basically correct, but the reason we’re not seeing transition happening rapidly and naturally is that the ‘we’ he’s referring to is not the ‘we’ that actually makes the decisions,” she said in an email. 圣母大学能源系统研究员艾米丽·格鲁伯特（Emily Grubert）表示，部分权衡是政治性的，民选官员和既得利益行业正试图放缓电气化进程。“我认为（比罗尔）基本是正确的，但我们之所以没有看到转型迅速且自然地发生，是因为他所指的‘我们’并不是真正做出决策的那个‘我们’，”她在电子邮件中写道。
Instead, some decision-makers are prioritizing the profits of certain industries, which often means favoring fuels such as coal, natural gas and oil, and slowing the transition to cleaner sources. Grubert could be describing many countries in which fossil fuel industries hold political sway, including the United States. 相反，一些决策者优先考虑特定行业的利润，这往往意味着偏袒煤炭、天然气和石油等燃料，从而减缓向更清洁能源的转型。格鲁伯特所描述的情况适用于许多化石燃料行业拥有政治影响力的国家，包括美国。
Kenneth Medlock III, senior director for the Center for Energy Studies at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, said it’s vital to fully evaluate the costs and benefits of electrification. “In truth, the lesson from the current moment is to diversify energy choice and the supply chains of specific energy types, but at the lowest possible cost,” he said. 莱斯大学贝克公共政策研究所能源研究中心高级主任肯尼斯·梅德洛克三世（Kenneth Medlock III）表示，全面评估电气化的成本和收益至关重要。“事实上，当下的教训是，我们需要在尽可能降低成本的前提下，实现能源选择和特定能源供应链的多元化，”他说。
Medlock thinks arguments in favor of electrification don’t account enough for the high upfront costs of building the systems. A good example is how wind and solar have low operating costs but are expensive to build. Fossil-fuel power plants also are expensive to build, but his larger point is that the advantages of any option come with disadvantages. 梅德洛克认为，支持电气化的论点没有充分考虑到建设这些系统所需的高昂前期成本。一个很好的例子是，风能和太阳能虽然运营成本低，但建设成本高昂。化石燃料发电厂的建设成本也很高，但他更深层的观点是，任何选择的优势都伴随着劣势。
Outside the wealthiest economies, the case for electrification is tougher to make, said Chuks Okereke, professor of global climate governance and public policy at the University of Bristol in the United Kingdom. “Sometimes in the bid for optimism, we oversimplify and ignore important contexts,” he said. 英国布里斯托大学全球气候治理与公共政策教授丘克斯·奥克雷克（Chuks Okereke）表示，在最富裕经济体之外，推动电气化的理由更难成立。“有时为了保持乐观，我们过度简化并忽略了重要的背景，”他说。
Okereke was lead author of a paper published in June in the journal Energy Economics that shows how fossil fuels and highly polluting development make short-term economic sense in Nigeria compared to cleaner alternatives. One reason is the high upfront cost of infrastructure. For the energy transition to be a net-positive for the Nigerian economy, the world’s wealthy countries and international organizations would need to provide assistance. 奥克雷克是6月份发表在《能源经济学》杂志上的一篇论文的主要作者，该论文展示了与更清洁的替代方案相比，化石燃料和高污染发展模式在尼日利亚为何在短期内更具经济合理性。原因之一是基础设施的高昂前期成本。要使能源转型对尼日利亚经济产生净正效应，世界富裕国家和国际组织需要提供援助。
Birol closed his UN speech by discussing the goal of getting to 35 percent electrification of final energy by 2035. The goal was part of discussions of climate policymakers in June in Bonn, Germany, and will be on the agenda at COP31 in November in Antalya, Turkey. If the target is agreed to at the climate change conference, it will “give a very strong and unmistakable signal” to the world about the path forward, he said. 比罗尔在联合国演讲的最后讨论了到2035年实现35%最终能源电气化的目标。该目标是6月份在德国波恩举行的气候政策制定者讨论的一部分，并将列入11月在土耳其安塔利亚举行的COP31会议议程。他说，如果气候变化大会达成这一目标，将向世界发出关于未来道路的“非常强烈且明确的信号”。
Birol isn’t saying the world has solved the problems of the energy transition. He’s saying… 比罗尔并不是说世界已经解决了能源转型的问题。他想说的是……