It looks like the Atlantic storm season may finally produce a hurricane

大西洋飓风季似乎终于要迎来一场飓风了

A low-pressure system in the western Gulf of Mexico should soon become a tropical storm, and based on the latest forecast modeling, it has a decent chance of becoming a hurricane. 墨西哥湾西部的一个低压系统很快将演变为热带风暴，根据最新的预报模型显示，它有很大几率发展成为飓风。

Normally, a hurricane forming in early October would not be particularly noteworthy. However, this year the development of a hurricane would be a big deal—because it has not happened yet. In the modern hurricane record—an era dating to about World War II when there has been aircraft reconnaissance and later continuous satellite coverage—there has never been an Atlantic season without a hurricane, and no season has gone this late without one forming. 通常情况下，10月初形成的飓风并不值得大惊小怪。然而，今年如果出现飓风将是一件大事——因为至今尚未发生过。在现代飓风记录中（始于二战时期，当时开始有飞机侦察，后来有了持续的卫星覆盖），大西洋飓风季从未出现过没有飓风的情况，也没有哪个季节像今年这样迟迟没有飓风形成。

There have been two years, 1907 and 1914, in which no hurricanes were recorded. However, that does not definitively mean there were no hurricanes. Before aircraft flew across the Atlantic, our records almost certainly missed hurricanes over the open ocean. 1907年和1914年曾有过没有飓风记录的年份。然而，这并不绝对意味着当时没有飓风。在飞机飞越大西洋之前，我们的记录几乎肯定遗漏了在大洋深处形成的飓风。

Atlantic window is closing

大西洋飓风窗口期即将关闭

The Atlantic hurricane season, nominally, runs from June 1 through November 30. However, the vast majority of hurricanes form between mid-August and mid-October, so the window of opportunity for one this season is closing. 大西洋飓风季名义上从6月1日持续到11月30日。然而，绝大多数飓风形成于8月中旬至10月中旬之间，因此本季飓风形成的窗口期正在关闭。

The Atlantic tropics have been exceptionally quiet this year, largely due to a strengthening El Niño that is expected to become historically strong. Typically, El Niño produces high levels of wind shear over the tropical Atlantic, which disrupts the organization of tropical systems. That has definitely been the case this year, as it has been the quietest season to date by most metrics. 今年大西洋热带地区异常平静，这在很大程度上归因于正在增强的厄尔尼诺现象，预计其强度将达到历史高位。通常，厄尔尼诺现象会在热带大西洋上空产生高水平的风切变，从而破坏热带系统的组织结构。今年确实如此，从大多数指标来看，这是迄今为止最平静的一个飓风季。

The developing tropical system in the Gulf, which would take on the name Isaias should it form in the next couple of days, does not have entirely smooth sailing. There is dry air and wind shear to its north. But there is a path over the next few days that could see it skirt eastward around this. On such a track it would traverse the very warm waters of the central Gulf, which are between 28° and 30° C, well above normal for this time of year. 墨西哥湾正在发展的热带系统（如果未来几天形成，将被命名为“伊萨亚斯”Isaias）并非一帆风顺。其北部存在干燥空气和风切变。但在未来几天内，它有一条路径可以绕过这些障碍向东移动。如果沿着这条路径，它将穿过墨西哥湾中部非常温暖的水域，水温在28°C至30°C之间，远高于往年同期的正常水平。

What Isaias might do

“伊萨亚斯”可能带来的影响

By remaining far enough south of the wind shear over the northwest Gulf, Isaias would have a couple of days during which to get organized and strengthen into a hurricane. In recent runs, most of our available guidance has become more bullish on this scenario, with some potential for even a major hurricane. Until such time as there is a well-defined center of circulation, however, there is a great deal of uncertainty about how strong Isaias might get. 通过保持在墨西哥湾西北部风切变以南足够远的距离，“伊萨亚斯”将有几天时间进行组织并增强为飓风。在最近的运行中，我们现有的大多数预报指导意见都更倾向于这种情景，甚至有可能发展成为大型飓风。然而，在出现明确的环流中心之前，“伊萨亚斯”最终能达到多强仍存在很大的不确定性。

In terms of where it will go, most of the available model guidance suggests it will make landfall between southeastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle on Friday or Saturday. Heavy rainfall is a certainty with this storm, but the level of threat from sustained winds and storm surge will be dependent upon the extent to which Isaias can get its act together. 至于其走向，大多数现有的模型指导意见显示，它将于周五或周六在路易斯安那州东南部和佛罗里达州狭长地带之间登陆。这场风暴带来的强降雨已成定局，但持续风力和风暴潮的威胁程度将取决于“伊萨亚斯”最终的组织强度。