Nature’s capacity to ‘bounce back’ when species are lost is overestimated: study

研究发现：自然界在物种灭绝后的“恢复能力”被严重高估

October 6, 2026. Nature’s capacity to ‘bounce back’ when species are lost is vastly overestimated, global analysis finds by King’s College London. 2026年10月6日。伦敦国王学院的一项全球分析发现，自然界在物种灭绝后的“恢复能力”被严重高估了。

The idea that ecosystems carry plenty of backup, so if a small number of species become extinct there is little harm, has been greatly overestimated, according to the largest global study of its kind. New research led by King’s College London and Imperial College London warns that a lack of biodiversity could threaten people’s food security and climate protection, as diverse ecosystems provide a wide range of benefits that people depend on, including pollination, water purification, carbon storage and natural pest control. 根据这项同类研究中规模最大的全球性研究，人们普遍认为生态系统拥有充足的备份，因此少量物种灭绝不会造成太大危害，这种观点被严重高估了。由伦敦国王学院和帝国理工学院领导的这项新研究警告称，生物多样性的匮乏可能会威胁到人类的粮食安全和气候保护，因为多样化的生态系统提供了人类赖以生存的广泛益处，包括授粉、水质净化、碳储存和天然病虫害防治。

The study, by King’s College London and Imperial College London with the Natural History Museum and The Alan Turing Institute, has found that ecosystems have far less “spare” capacity than previously thought, with the ocean potentially having the most to lose. 这项由伦敦国王学院、帝国理工学院、自然历史博物馆以及艾伦·图灵研究所共同开展的研究发现，生态系统的“备用”能力远低于此前的预期，其中海洋可能面临最大的损失。

Biodiversity benefits rarely level off

生物多样性的益处很少会趋于平稳

The study, published in Nature Ecology & Evolution, combined 423 published studies and 222,829 data points across land, freshwater, marine and estuarine ecosystems, producing a database more than twice the size of the largest previous effort and the largest of its kind. Across 23 categories of ecosystem services and functions, most benefits rose steadily with biodiversity rather than leveling off once a handful of species were present. 这项发表在《自然-生态与演化》杂志上的研究汇总了423项已发表的研究和222,829个数据点，涵盖了陆地、淡水、海洋和河口生态系统。该数据库的规模是此前最大同类研究的两倍多，也是目前此类研究中规模最大的。在23类生态系统服务和功能中，大多数益处随着生物多样性的增加而稳步上升，而不是在出现少数物种后就趋于平稳。

The findings suggest that functional redundancy—the idea that species can substitute for one another, so losses do little harm—has been overestimated. Dr. Emma Moffett, study lead and lecturer in geography at King’s College London, said, “Our findings challenge the comfortable assumption that ecosystems carry plenty of backup, so losing a species here and there doesn’t change much. Across most of the benefits ecosystems provide that we looked at, the data doesn’t support that. The ecological benefits keep climbing as diversity rises, which means they fall as we lose species.” 研究结果表明，功能冗余（即认为物种可以相互替代，因此物种损失危害不大的观点）被高估了。该研究负责人、伦敦国王学院地理学讲师艾玛·莫菲特（Emma Moffett）博士表示：“我们的研究结果挑战了一种令人心安的假设，即生态系统拥有充足的备份，所以丢失一两个物种不会有太大影响。在我们研究的生态系统提供的大多数益处中，数据并不支持这种假设。生态效益随着多样性的增加而不断攀升，这意味着当我们失去物种时，这些效益也会随之下降。”

Ocean carbon storage depends on diversity

海洋碳储存依赖于生物多样性

Ocean carbon sequestration, the process of capturing and storing carbon dioxide (CO₂) from the atmosphere in marine waters and sediments, showed by far the strongest positive response to biodiversity of any service measured. This indicates that so-called blue carbon sinks—the ocean and coastal ecosystems such as coral reefs, salt marshes or mangroves that capture and store carbon dioxide from the atmosphere—depend on sustaining diverse marine communities, from phytoplankton to the microbial food webs that pump carbon into deep water. 海洋固碳（即从大气中捕获二氧化碳并将其储存在海水和沉积物中的过程）在所有被测量的服务中，对生物多样性的正向反应最为强烈。这表明，所谓的“蓝碳汇”——即海洋和沿海生态系统，如珊瑚礁、盐沼或红树林，它们能够捕获并储存大气中的二氧化碳——依赖于维持多样化的海洋群落，从浮游植物到将碳泵入深海的微生物食物网，皆是如此。

The authors caution that this result rests on a small number of data sets and identify it as an urgent gap in current知识. Moffett goes on to say, “The ocean result stopped us in our tracks. Carbon capture at sea responded to biodiversity more strongly than anything else we measured, and yet it’s one of the least studied areas we found. If the world is counting on blue carbon to help with climate change, marine life can’t be an afterthought.” 作者提醒说，这一结果基于少量数据集，并指出这是当前知识体系中的一个紧迫缺口。莫菲特补充道：“海洋的研究结果让我们感到震惊。海洋固碳对生物多样性的反应比我们测量的任何其他指标都要强烈，然而这却是我们发现的研究最少的领域之一。如果世界指望依靠蓝碳来应对气候变化，那么海洋生物就不应被视为事后才考虑的问题。”

Not all services depend on diversity

并非所有服务都依赖于多样性

Not all ecosystem services proved exceptions. Protection against hazards such as coastal flooding and erosion was relatively insensitive to biodiversity overall, because it often depends on one or two foundational species, such as the shrubs that stabilize sand dunes. The authors argue that conservation must therefore balance maintaining overall diversity with safeguarding irreplaceable foundational species. 并非所有生态系统服务都依赖于多样性。例如，针对沿海洪水和侵蚀等灾害的防护功能，总体上对生物多样性相对不敏感，因为它通常依赖于一两种基础物种，例如固定沙丘的灌木。因此，作者认为，保护工作必须在维持整体多样性与保护不可替代的基础物种之间取得平衡。

Dr. Will Pearse, an associate professor of evolutionary ecology in the Department of Life Sciences at Imperial College London, said, “We’ve known that biodiversity supports humanity by providing us with food, clean water, clean air and so many other ecosystem services. But what this model gives us is a precise, global picture: We can now predict the benefits biodiversity provides anywhere, making it even easier to recognize and take advantage of those benefits.” 伦敦帝国理工学院生命科学系进化生态学副教授威尔·皮尔斯（Will Pearse）博士表示：“我们一直知道生物多样性通过为我们提供食物、清洁的水、清洁的空气以及许多其他生态系统服务来支持人类。但这个模型为我们提供了一幅精确的全球图景：我们现在可以预测生物多样性在任何地方所提供的益处，从而更容易识别并利用这些益处。”