You Probably Aren’t Going to Get the Plague

你大概率不会感染鼠疫

Save this story. A mysterious death of a woman in Russia following a lab accident has stoked fears about plague spreading. But the odds of that actually happening remain very low, with the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention saying on X Tuesday afternoon that the circumstances of the case remain unconfirmed and that there is “no indication of a broader threat to the United States” at this time.

保存这篇报道。俄罗斯一名女性在实验室事故后离奇死亡，引发了人们对鼠疫传播的担忧。但这种情况发生的概率仍然极低。美国疾病控制与预防中心（CDC）周二下午在 X（原推特）上表示，该病例的具体情况尚未得到证实，目前“没有迹象表明这对美国构成更广泛的威胁”。

“We are working across the US government to assess developments as additional information becomes available,” the agency said. “CDC and our interagency partners are prepared and will continue to monitor the situation closely.”

该机构表示：“我们正在与美国政府各部门合作，随着更多信息的披露来评估事态发展。CDC 和我们的跨部门合作伙伴已做好准备，并将继续密切监测局势。”

Last week, a young researcher died from severe pneumonia of “unknown” origin after reportedly breaking a test tube at her workplace, the Irkutsk Anti-Plague Institute in Siberia. The hospital that treated her before her death was placed under quarantine, and her coworkers at the lab were isolated, according to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

据自由欧洲电台/自由电台报道，上周，一名年轻的研究人员在西伯利亚伊尔库茨克反鼠疫研究所工作时，据称因打破试管，随后死于一种“不明”原因的严重肺炎。在她去世前收治她的医院已被隔离，她在实验室的同事也已被隔离。

Christian Lindmeier, a spokesperson for the World Health Organization, told reporters in Geneva on Tuesday that the group has been in touch with Russian authorities. Based on currently available information, WHO says the public health risk to the general population is very low.

世界卫生组织发言人克里斯蒂安·林德迈尔（Christian Lindmeier）周二在日内瓦告诉记者，世卫组织已与俄罗斯当局取得联系。根据目前掌握的信息，世卫组织表示，对普通民众而言，公共卫生风险非常低。

“I think that’s the correct assessment,” says Gigi Gronvall, an immunologist and senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. “We don’t know anything about anything right now.”

“我认为这是一个正确的评估，”约翰斯·霍普金斯健康安全中心的免疫学家兼高级学者吉吉·格隆瓦尔（Gigi Gronvall）表示，“我们目前对具体情况一无所知。”

Russian authorities have said contact tracing hasn’t yielded any signs of dangerous pathogens spreading, according to the Associated Press. Infamous for causing millions of deaths in Europe during the Middle Ages, plague is rare today. It is caused by the bacteria Yersinia pestis, which is found in wild rodents and their fleas in many parts of the world. It’s spread to humans through the bite of an infected flea and occasionally through direct contact with an infected animal. Antibiotics can cure plague, but they must be started as soon as an infection is suspected.

据美联社报道，俄罗斯当局表示，接触者追踪工作尚未发现任何危险病原体传播的迹象。鼠疫因在中世纪导致欧洲数百万人死亡而臭名昭著，但在今天已十分罕见。它由鼠疫耶尔森菌引起，这种细菌存在于世界许多地方的野生啮齿动物及其跳蚤身上。它通过受感染跳蚤的叮咬传播给人类，偶尔也通过与受感染动物的直接接触传播。抗生素可以治愈鼠疫，但必须在怀疑感染后立即开始治疗。

Pneumonic plague occurs when a person inhales infectious droplets that contain the bacteria. In July 2025, an Arizona man died from pneumonic plague after exposure to infected cats. It can also spread from person to person through respiratory droplets during close contact. But human-to-human transmission is rare, with the last reported occurrence happening in 1924 in Los Angeles. The possibility, though, is why the CDC says it’s important to rapidly identify cases and treat them.

肺鼠疫发生在人吸入含有该细菌的传染性飞沫时。2025年7月，一名亚利桑那州男子在接触受感染的猫后死于肺鼠疫。它也可以在密切接触期间通过呼吸道飞沫在人与人之间传播。但人际传播非常罕见，上一次报告的此类事件发生在1924年的洛杉矶。尽管如此，这种可能性正是 CDC 强调快速识别病例并进行治疗至关重要的原因。

“Once you know that somebody has been exposed to it, and even if you have a doubt that somebody has been exposed to it, you can immediately start antibiotics to prevent the person getting afflicted with the disease and to avoid the continuous spread of the disease,” says Rutul Dalal, an infectious disease physician at Penn State Health St. Joseph Medical Center.

宾夕法尼亚州立大学圣约瑟夫医学中心的传染病医生鲁图尔·达拉尔（Rutul Dalal）表示：“一旦你知道某人接触过鼠疫，即使你只是怀疑某人接触过，也可以立即开始使用抗生素，以防止该人患病并避免疾病的持续传播。”

Dalal says if the Russian lab worker did die from plague, he is confident that the disease could easily be contained. “With Covid, that was a virus we had not dealt with in the past,” he says. That required novel interventions, while “here, we do have antibiotics to deal with this.”

达拉尔表示，如果这名俄罗斯实验室工作人员确实死于鼠疫，他有信心该疾病可以轻易得到控制。“新冠病毒是我们过去从未处理过的病毒，”他说。那需要全新的干预措施，而“在这里，我们确实有抗生素来应对它。”

The incident also occurred in a remote part of Russia, which could naturally limit its spread. “Siberia is not exactly Paris,” Gronvall says. “There’s not a lot of travel going back and forth.”

此次事件还发生在俄罗斯偏远地区，这可能会自然限制其传播。“西伯利亚毕竟不是巴黎，”格隆瓦尔说，“那里没有频繁的人员往来。”

Whether plague is the culprit or not remains an open question. Rospotrebnadzor, Russia’s federal public health and consumer protection agency, said “extensive” testing found “no microorganisms associated with the patient’s professional activities.” But the US has urged the country to share as much information as possible, while other nations that share borders or are near Russia, including Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan, have set up quarantine protocols.

鼠疫是否是罪魁祸首仍是一个悬而未决的问题。俄罗斯联邦消费者权益保护和公益监督局（Rospotrebnadzor）表示，“广泛”的检测发现“没有与患者职业活动相关的微生物”。但美国已敦促俄方尽可能多地分享信息，而与俄罗斯接壤或邻近的其他国家，包括哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦和塔吉克斯坦，也已建立了检疫规程。