Tropical Storm Isaias Set to Be First Atlantic Hurricane of 2026 Season
Tropical Storm Isaias Set to Be First Atlantic Hurricane of 2026 Season
Save this storySave this storyThe 2026 Atlantic hurricane season has been mercifully dull, but that’s set to change this week. Tropical Storm Isaias is forecast to become the season’s first hurricane before making landfall somewhere between Mississippi and Florida by the weekend.
2026年大西洋飓风季一直以来都出奇地平静，但这种情况本周即将改变。据预测，热带风暴“伊萨亚斯”（Isaias）将在周末登陆密西西比州至佛罗里达州之间的某个地区前，升级为本季首个飓风。
El Niño has turned the Atlantic basin into a graveyard by changing winds high in the atmosphere so that they rip apart storms. That’s helped depress tropical cyclone activity to near-record-low levels and resulted in zero hurricanes. That could change imminently, though.
厄尔尼诺现象改变了高层大气风向，导致风暴被撕裂，将大西洋盆地变成了一片“坟场”。这使得热带气旋活动降至接近历史最低水平，至今尚未出现飓风。不过，这种情况可能很快就会改变。
Isaias is churning in the Gulf of Mexico with winds of 65 mph, according to the latest update from the US National Hurricane Center. That’s just a shade below hurricane strength. The storm is forecast to pass over a patch of abnormally warm water, providing fuel for it to blossom into a hurricane. It could peak as a Category 2 storm with winds of 110 mph as it lumbers to the northeast. The storm is expected to weaken due to those aforementioned gnarly winds shortly before it makes landfall somewhere along the Gulf Coast.
根据美国国家飓风中心（NHC）的最新通报，“伊萨亚斯”目前正在墨西哥湾搅动，风速为每小时65英里，距离飓风强度仅一步之遥。预计该风暴将经过一片异常温暖的水域，这将为其升级为飓风提供能量。在向东北方向缓慢移动的过程中，它可能达到二级飓风的峰值，风速可达每小时110英里。预计在登陆墨西哥湾沿岸之前，受上述强风影响，风暴强度将会减弱。
The NHC has issued hurricane watches for all the coastline in Mississippi and Alabama as well as parts of the Florida Panhandle. (Tropical storm watches extend into Louisiana as well.)
美国国家飓风中心已对密西西比州和阿拉巴马州的全部海岸线以及佛罗里达州狭长地带的部分地区发布了飓风观察预警。（热带风暴观察预警范围也延伸到了路易斯安那州。）
Folks in that region can expect rainfall totals of up to 7 inches, though some spots in the Panhandle could see as much as 10 inches and storm surge as high as 7 feet. Tornadoes aren’t out of the question either. In other words, it’s a storm to take seriously.
该地区的民众预计将面临高达7英寸的降雨，佛罗里达州狭长地带的部分地区降雨量甚至可能达到10英寸，风暴潮高度可达7英尺。此外，也不排除出现龙卷风的可能性。换句话说，这是一场需要严阵以待的风暴。
Isaias could make also (or at least tie) history as the latest first Atlantic hurricane to form on record. The current record was set in 1905, when the season’s first hurricane formed on October 8. There’s still one more update scheduled for Isaias on Wednesday, so it’s possible it could just miss out on tying that mark.
“伊萨亚斯”可能会创造（或至少追平）大西洋有记录以来最晚形成首个飓风的历史。目前的纪录是在1905年创下的，当时该季首个飓风于10月8日形成。周三还有一次关于“伊萨亚斯”的预报更新，因此它仍有可能与该纪录擦肩而过。
Record or not, Isaias is indicative of the hurricane season that wasn’t. This year’s Atlantic hurricane season was forecast to be below average. But it’s been even quieter than expected owing to an El Niño that’s been dubbed “super,” “Godzilla,” and “supersized.” The superlatives—which meteorologists will be quick to tell you are not official designations—are indicative of the strength of this year’s event. El Niño is measured by ocean temperatures in a part of the tropical Pacific, and this year’s iteration has seen record highs throughout the summer and first part of fall.
无论是否打破纪录，“伊萨亚斯”都象征着今年这个“名不副实”的飓风季。今年大西洋飓风季的预测本就低于平均水平，但由于被称为“超级”、“哥斯拉级”和“超大型”的厄尔尼诺现象，实际情况比预期还要平静得多。气象学家会很快告诉你，这些最高级形容词并非官方定名，但它们确实反映了今年厄尔尼诺现象的强度。厄尔尼诺现象是通过热带太平洋部分地区的海水温度来衡量的，而今年的海水温度在整个夏季和秋季初期均创下了历史新高。
The intensity has had a heavy hand in rearranging the atmosphere around the world, including over the Atlantic. Saharan dust has also played a role in quieting things by making the air in one of the major areas where hurricanes develop too damn dry.
这种强度对全球大气环流产生了重大影响，包括大西洋上空。撒哈拉沙尘也起到了一定的抑制作用，它使得飓风形成的主要区域之一空气过于干燥。
For a sense of how that has impacted the Atlantic hurricane season, we can look at some averages. From 1991 to 2020, the basin saw an average of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes—that is, storms of Category 3 or greater—annually, according to NHC data. This year has seen eight tropical storms and one soon-to-be hurricane.
为了了解这对大西洋飓风季的影响，我们可以参考一些平均数据。根据美国国家飓风中心的数据，1991年至2020年间，该盆地每年平均出现14个命名风暴、7个飓风和3个大型飓风（即三级或以上级别的风暴）。而今年目前只出现了8个热带风暴和1个即将形成的飓风。
Another metric to measure the season is accumulated cyclone energy (ACE for short), which takes into account not just the number and intensity of storms but how long they stick around. The ACE to date for 2026 is 10.8 units. The average for this time of year? Nearly 102, according to data maintained by Colorado State University. Most of that energy typically accumulates from mid-August through late September.
衡量飓风季的另一个指标是累积气旋能量（简称ACE），它不仅考虑风暴的数量和强度，还考虑风暴持续的时间。2026年迄今为止的ACE值为10.8个单位。根据科罗拉多州立大学维护的数据，往年同期的平均值接近102。大部分能量通常在8月中旬至9月下旬期间累积。
None of this is to say there might not be another surprise storm in the coming weeks. But with El Niño continuing to intensify and the peak of the season well past, the odds of this season seeing a sudden spurt of activity are minimal at best.
这并不是说未来几周不会再出现突发的风暴。但随着厄尔尼诺现象持续增强，且飓风季高峰期已过，本季出现活动突然激增的可能性微乎其微。