Trade group crunches numbers on Trump’s impossible push for 100% US-made tech

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One of Donald Trump’s biggest goals as president is to increase domestic manufacturing and reshore supply chains so that the most in-demand technologies in the world can be 100 percent made in the United States. By executive order last December, he launched his “Genesis Mission,” an ambitious plan seeking to leverage US dominance in AI to maintain or seize an edge in advanced robotics, biotechnology, semiconductors, and nuclear technologies.

唐纳德·特朗普担任总统期间最大的目标之一是增加国内制造业并回流供应链，以便世界上需求量最大的技术能够 100% 在美国制造。去年 12 月，他通过行政命令启动了“创世纪任务”（Genesis Mission），这是一项雄心勃勃的计划，旨在利用美国在人工智能领域的优势，以保持或夺取在先进机器人、生物技术、半导体和核技术领域的领先地位。

According to Trump, that plan works best with self-sustaining supply chains. Not even neighboring countries or longtime allies should be relied upon to manufacture a single component of any US product in his ideal world. The Consumer Technology Association (CTA) has long warned that Trump’s reshoring goals are not grounded in reality, but only recently has America’s largest technology trade association attempted to estimate what it would cost businesses and consumers to follow through on Trump’s plan.

据特朗普称，该计划在自给自足的供应链下效果最好。在他理想的世界里，即使是邻国或长期盟友也不应被依赖来制造任何美国产品的单一组件。消费者技术协会（CTA）长期以来一直警告称，特朗普的回流目标并不符合现实，但直到最近，这个美国最大的技术贸易协会才试图估算执行特朗普的计划将给企业和消费者带来多大的成本。

“It is no longer enough to say that reshoring is difficult,” the CTA acknowledged. “The practical questions are what it would cost, product by product, what it would physically require, and who would pay for it.” In new research shared with members this week, the CTA warned that reaching full US production of 10 categories of products most commonly found in US homes by 2031 “would require between $185 and $230 billion in capital expenditure, 555,000 to 668,000 additional full-time employees, and 19.1-19.5 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity per year.”

“仅仅说回流很困难已经不够了，”CTA 承认道。“实际的问题是，逐个产品计算需要多少成本，在物理上需要什么条件，以及由谁来买单。”在本周与成员分享的一项新研究中，CTA 警告称，到 2031 年实现美国家庭中最常见的 10 类产品完全在美国生产，“将需要 1850 亿至 2300 亿美元的资本支出，增加 55.5 万至 66.8 万名全职员工，以及每年 191 亿至 195 亿千瓦时的电力。”

While the costs are eye-popping, the labor demand might be the bigger problem, requiring more than double the “existing US computer and electronics manufacturing workforce,” the CTA said. Additionally, the energy demand required to reshore all supply chains at once would clash with huge energy needs of AI data centers over the same time period. Product categories included computer monitors, laptops, robotic vacuums, smart speakers, smartphones, smartwatches, televisions, video game consoles, wireless earbuds, and wireless headphones.

CTA 表示，虽然成本令人瞠目结舌，但劳动力需求可能是一个更大的问题，这需要超过“现有美国计算机和电子制造业劳动力”两倍的人力。此外，同时回流所有供应链所需的能源需求，将与同一时期人工智能数据中心巨大的能源需求发生冲突。产品类别包括电脑显示器、笔记本电脑、扫地机器人、智能音箱、智能手机、智能手表、电视、游戏机、无线耳塞和无线耳机。

Smartphones are in a “league of their own,” the CTA said, emerging as the most expensive product to make in the US and the product that Americans consider least dispensable. Taking into account tariffs in place today, the cost of fully manufacturing a smartphone in the US would go up by 152 percent, CTA estimated, and some of those costs would inevitably have to be covered by consumers to maintain profit margins and keep investors happy.

CTA 表示，智能手机“独树一帜”，成为在美国制造最昂贵的产品，也是美国人认为最不可或缺的产品。CTA 估计，考虑到目前实施的关税，在美国完全制造智能手机的成本将上升 152%，为了维持利润率并让投资者满意，其中一些成本不可避免地必须由消费者承担。

The largest cost increases would be in products with processors, memory, and advanced displays, the CTA said. Building laptops would cost 93 percent more, and smartwatches 97 percent more. On the lower end of the spectrum, TVs would cost 41 percent more to build entirely in the US. In this scenario, most tech companies wouldn’t immediately pass all extra costs on to their customers. But any big price jumps could hurt Americans already pinching pennies.

CTA 表示，成本增幅最大的将是带有处理器、内存和先进显示屏的产品。制造笔记本电脑的成本将增加 93%，智能手表增加 97%。在较低端，电视在美国完全制造的成本将增加 41%。在这种情况下，大多数科技公司不会立即将所有额外成本转嫁给客户。但任何大幅度的价格上涨都可能伤害那些已经在精打细算的美国人。

CTA’s research indicated that companies could pass on between 25 and 50 percent of the cost increase. On average, CTA estimated that “the 10 products in our report would see a weighted average price increase of 27 to 55 percent.” For the most cash-vulnerable and value-seeking US families, that could quickly add up as the devices they depend on wear down. “A household replacing a phone, a laptop, and a television over a typical replacement cycle would face that increase on each purchase,” the CTA reported.

CTA 的研究表明，公司可能会转嫁 25% 到 50% 的成本增长。CTA 平均估计，“我们报告中的 10 种产品加权平均价格将上涨 27% 至 55%。”对于最缺乏现金且追求性价比的美国家庭来说，随着他们依赖的设备磨损，这些费用可能会迅速增加。CTA 报告称：“一个在典型更换周期内更换手机、笔记本电脑和电视的家庭，在每次购买时都将面临这种价格上涨。”

Households already facing budget strains—including rising costs of rent, groceries, and fuel—are already delaying technology purchases until prices come down in the US, the CTA reported. And while most people are unwilling to go without smartphones for very long, the fewer products that tech companies can sell over time, the worse their margins will get as they continue to absorb higher costs. As returns diminish, that could spook investors, the CTA suggested, making it even harder to reshore supply chains, despite Trump insisting that reshoring will ultimately attract more investment in the US.

CTA 报告称，已经面临预算紧张（包括租金、食品杂货和燃料成本上涨）的家庭已经在推迟购买技术产品，直到美国国内价格下降。虽然大多数人不愿意长时间没有智能手机，但随着科技公司销售的产品减少，由于它们继续承担更高的成本，它们的利润率将会恶化。CTA 指出，随着回报减少，这可能会吓跑投资者，使回流供应链变得更加困难，尽管特朗普坚持认为回流最终会吸引更多对美国的投资。

With each product category taking years to fully reshore, the jury is out on how many businesses could afford that, the CTA suggested. Trump unlikely to embrace CTA’s alternative plan. Instead of rushing companies to invest in domestic manufacturing on expedited timelines that hardly anybody can afford, the CTA recommended a “first step” that could help tech firms manage costs while pursuing some reshoring.

CTA 表示，由于每个产品类别都需要数年时间才能完全回流，有多少企业能够负担得起这一点尚无定论。特朗普不太可能接受 CTA 的替代方案。CTA 建议采取“第一步”措施，帮助科技公司在追求部分回流的同时管理成本，而不是在几乎没人能负担得起的紧迫时间表下催促公司投资国内制造业。

If the US focused only on reshoring the assembly part of manufacturing—rather than reshoring the manufacturing of every component—firms’ costs would be substantially less, estimated between $16 billion and $19 billion. In that scenario, the cost of manufacturing smartphones would still rise by 67 percent, CTA estimated, and laptops by 50 percent. But for businesses, that’s a comparably lower cost impact that allows them to perhaps avoid price increases while continuing working with “trusted trading partners, suppliers, and allies to secure component access,” until they can bring the full supply chain into the US.

如果美国只专注于回流制造业的组装环节，而不是回流每一个组件的制造，那么企业的成本将大幅降低，估计在 160 亿至 190 亿美元之间。CTA 估计，在这种情况下，智能手机的制造成本仍将上升 67%，笔记本电脑上升 50%。但对于企业来说，这是一个相对较低的成本影响，使它们或许能够避免价格上涨，同时继续与“值得信赖的贸易伙伴、供应商和盟友合作以确保组件获取”，直到它们能够将完整的供应链带入美国。

To support that scenario, the CTA suggested that Trump pump the brakes on imposing tariffs on component parts—at the very least, considering eliminating tariffs on components from trusted trade partners and allies. That could further reduce costs for businesses without carrying the risk of the US overly relying on potentially less stable markets of foreign rivals like China. “Component tariffs drive up US assembly costs relative to the current import mix,” the CTA reported. “They make it more expensive for companies to manufacture in the US and raise costs the most for products that matter most to consumers.” Ideally, once assembly is brought into the US, businesses can then evaluate “on its merits” which products they can afford to fully manufacture.

为了支持这一方案，CTA 建议特朗普放慢对组件征收关税的步伐——至少考虑取消对来自值得信赖的贸易伙伴和盟友的组件征收关税。这可以在不承担美国过度依赖中国等外国竞争对手潜在不稳定市场风险的情况下，进一步降低企业成本。CTA 报告称：“与当前的进口组合相比，组件关税推高了美国的组装成本。它们使公司在美国制造的成本更高，并对消费者最关心的产品造成了最大的成本上涨。”理想情况下，一旦组装环节被引入美国，企业就可以“根据其自身价值”评估哪些产品它们有能力完全制造。