SpaceX calls for better coordination in orbit after near-misses with Starlink

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Space has plenty of room for more megaconstellations, but only if all operators are willing to share information about where their satellites are and where they’re going, a top executive at SpaceX and its AI subsidiary said this week. Michael Nicolls, SpaceX’s vice president for Starlink and president of Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence company, xAI, used a presentation Tuesday at the International Astronautical Congress in Turkey as a clarion call for improved data-sharing among satellite operators.

太空中有足够的空间容纳更多的巨型星座，但前提是所有运营商都愿意分享其卫星的位置和运行轨迹信息，SpaceX 及其人工智能子公司的一位高管本周表示。SpaceX 星链业务副总裁兼埃隆·马斯克旗下人工智能公司 xAI 的总裁迈克尔·尼科尔斯（Michael Nicolls）周二在土耳其举行的国际宇航大会上发表讲话，呼吁卫星运营商加强数据共享。

SpaceX’s Starlink constellation now has more than 11,000 satellites, about two-thirds of all active spacecraft in low-Earth orbit. Radars and telescopes routinely track thousands more pieces of space junk. Starlink is, by far, the largest satellite constellation in operation today. But if you buy the buzz, Starlink is just the tip of the iceberg. SpaceX has revealed plans to launch up to a million satellites for a new constellation, called Starmind, to deploy AI computing capacity in low-Earth orbit. Amazon is in the early stages of launching a network of thousands of satellites to compete with Starlink, and two Chinese megaconstellations are now in full-scale deployment.

SpaceX 的星链星座目前拥有超过 11,000 颗卫星，约占近地轨道所有现役航天器的三分之二。雷达和望远镜经常追踪数以千计的太空垃圾。星链是目前为止运行中规模最大的卫星星座。但如果相信传闻，星链只是冰山一角。SpaceX 已披露计划发射多达一百万颗卫星，用于一个名为“Starmind”的新星座，旨在近地轨道部署人工智能计算能力。亚马逊正处于发射数千颗卫星网络以与星链竞争的早期阶段，而两个中国巨型星座目前也已进入全面部署阶段。

All of this raises the question of how to mitigate the risk of a collision in orbit, an event that could create thousands more pieces of space junk, potentially triggering a self-perpetuating cycle of debris generation. The risk of a collision on any given day is fantastically low. Space is vast and empty, and low-Earth orbit is a long way from filling up. SpaceX and most other Western operators de-orbit their rockets and satellites at the end of their missions to prevent additional debris in orbit. “That said, the law of large numbers says that if it can happen, it will happen,” Nicolls said.

所有这些都提出了一个问题：如何降低轨道碰撞的风险？此类事件可能会产生数以千计的额外太空垃圾，并可能引发碎片产生的自我延续循环。在任何特定的一天，发生碰撞的风险都极低。太空广阔而空旷，近地轨道距离填满还很遥远。SpaceX 和大多数其他西方运营商在任务结束后会将火箭和卫星脱离轨道，以防止在轨道上产生更多碎片。“话虽如此，大数定律告诉我们，如果事情可能发生，它就一定会发生，”尼科尔斯说。

There’s still a long way to go to improve tracking, awareness, and coordination in orbit. This is sometimes called space traffic management. No global treaties or regulations require satellites to broadcast their locations and maneuvers or mandate coordination among satellite operators. Without rules of the road, it is up to governments and companies to set norms of behavior. “Once you can track this debris, and if you can track it well, these are like obstacles on a road. If you can measure them, you can predict where they’re going to be, and you can avoid them,” Nicolls said.

在改善轨道追踪、态势感知和协调方面，仍有很长的路要走。这有时被称为空间交通管理。目前没有任何全球性条约或法规要求卫星广播其位置和机动情况，也没有强制要求卫星运营商之间进行协调。在缺乏交通规则的情况下，制定行为准则取决于各国政府和公司。“一旦你能追踪到这些碎片，并且追踪得很好，它们就像路上的障碍物。如果你能测量它们，你就能预测它们的位置，从而避开它们，”尼科尔斯说。

“What you can’t avoid is other operators who maneuver without telling you where they’re going to go. We have many examples of this on Starlink, unfortunately.” Nicolls presented several examples of satellites from other operators closely approaching Starlink satellites as they zip around the Earth at 5 miles per second. The examples did not suggest nefarious intent, such as spying or an attempt at striking a Starlink in orbit. Instead, the other satellites conducted maneuvers and changed their trajectories without their owners informing anyone.

“你无法避免的是那些在机动时没有告知去向的其他运营商。不幸的是，我们在星链上有很多这样的例子。”尼科尔斯展示了几个例子，显示其他运营商的卫星在以每秒 5 英里的速度绕地球飞行时，近距离接近星链卫星。这些例子并不暗示有恶意企图，例如间谍活动或试图在轨道上撞击星链。相反，这些卫星在所有者未通知任何人的情况下进行了机动并改变了轨迹。

“Either they were not publishing their ephemeris to us, or they were not considering the ephemeris of others when they were maneuvering, and these led to conjunctions of tens of meters to hundreds of meters,” Nicolls said. “Way too close to comfort.”

“要么是他们没有向我们发布星历，要么是他们在机动时没有考虑他人的星历，这导致了数十米到数百米的近距离接触，”尼科尔斯说。“这太危险了，令人不安。”

An ephemeris contains information about a satellite’s location and movement. Some operators may not want to share this information, believing secrecy might provide a competitive or strategic advantage. But if spaceflight is to be sustainable, it is vital to err on the side of openness rather than secrecy. “The minimum standard in low-Earth orbit needs to be that you know where your satellite is, and you know where it’s going. You need to be able to predict where your trajectory is, and that prediction needs to be reliable,” Nicolls said.

星历包含有关卫星位置和运动的信息。一些运营商可能不愿分享这些信息，认为保密可能会提供竞争或战略优势。但如果航天飞行要实现可持续发展，关键在于倾向于公开而非保密。“近地轨道的最低标准应该是，你知道你的卫星在哪里，并且知道它要去哪里。你需要能够预测你的轨迹，而且这种预测必须是可靠的，”尼科尔斯说。

SpaceX lauds itself as the benchmark for orbital stewardship. It pretty much has to be, with so many Starlinks in orbit and so much of its business relying on space. The company has lowered the altitude of the entire active Starlink constellation below 500 kilometers (310 miles), an adjustment that provides three benefits. It moved the network away from other heavily trafficked regions in low-Earth orbit, expedited reentry for any failed Starlink satellites, and improved service for Starlink customers.

SpaceX 自诩为轨道管理的标杆。考虑到有如此多的星链卫星在轨运行，且其大部分业务依赖于太空，它几乎必须如此。该公司已将整个现役星链星座的高度降低至 500 公里（310 英里）以下，这一调整带来了三个好处：将网络从近地轨道其他交通繁忙的区域移开，加快了任何失效星链卫星的再入大气层速度，并改善了星链客户的服务。

All of SpaceX’s new-generation Starlink V3 satellites, which began launching on the company’s Starship rocket last month, will fly even lower, at about 350 kilometers (217 miles). SpaceX also publishes ephemeris data for its Starlink satellites and has asked other operators to share their data, too. Without ephemeris sharing, operators rely on tracking data or their own satellites’ collision avoidance capabilities.

SpaceX 上个月开始通过其星舰火箭发射的新一代星链 V3 卫星，将会在更低的高度飞行，即约 350 公里（217 英里）。SpaceX 还发布了其星链卫星的星历数据，并要求其他运营商也分享他们的数据。在没有星历共享的情况下，运营商只能依赖追踪数据或其自身卫星的避碰能力。

Starlink satellites, for example, use onboard navigation cameras to detect other objects in orbit. SpaceX calls the system Stargaze, and it now tracks about 90 percent of maneuvering satellites that intersect Starlink orbits, Nicolls said. That is good, but it would be better if all operators agreed to be more open about what their satellites are doing. It is now a “fairly common occurrence” that Starlink satellites detect an upcoming close encounter and autonomously maneuver.

例如，星链卫星使用机载导航摄像头来探测轨道上的其他物体。SpaceX 将该系统称为“Stargaze”，尼科尔斯表示，它目前可以追踪约 90% 与星链轨道交叉的机动卫星。这很好，但如果所有运营商都同意更公开地披露其卫星的运行情况，情况会更好。目前，星链卫星探测到即将发生的近距离接触并自动进行机动已成为“相当普遍的现象”。