They War-Gamed Dimming the Sun. It Went Even Worse Than You Think

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When it comes to deciding the fate of the planet, Colleen Golja always thought science and reason would have a seat at the table. That was until one morning last September in London, when the climate researcher took part in the first in a series of war games. The goal: to prevent an uncontrolled global race to develop a technology aimed at cooling the planet but that comes with vast, unknown risks that could reshape life on Earth.

在决定地球命运的问题上，科琳·戈利亚（Colleen Golja）一直认为科学和理性会占有一席之地。直到去年九月在伦敦的一个早晨，这位气候研究员参加了一系列兵棋推演中的第一场，她的想法才发生了改变。此次推演的目标是：防止全球范围内出现不受控制的竞赛，去开发一种旨在为地球降温，却伴随着可能重塑地球生命的巨大未知风险的技术。

“I thought that would be such an easy thing. Like, we can all agree to do ethical research and make sure it’s for the better of all humans,” she told WIRED. “And boy, was I wrong.”

“我原以为这会是一件很容易的事。比如，我们大家都能同意进行合乎道德的研究，并确保它是为了全人类的福祉，”她告诉《连线》（WIRED）杂志。“天哪，我真是大错特错。”

The simulation, titled Exploring Geopolitical Tipping Points and Climate Cooling Strategies, saw a couple dozen foreign-relations experts, scientists, military personnel, and former government officials from across the world convene in a meeting room at Queen Mary University of London. After making introductions over coffee and little yogurts, they sat at tables arranged in a square with the name of the country or organization each person was playing: national governments, climate NGOs and nonprofits, indigenous groups, and tech companies. Golja was assigned to provide technical advice to help participants make scientifically literate decisions.

这场名为“探索地缘政治临界点与气候降温策略”的模拟演习，汇集了来自世界各地的几十位外交关系专家、科学家、军事人员和前政府官员，地点设在伦敦玛丽女王大学的一间会议室里。在喝着咖啡、吃着小酸奶进行自我介绍后，他们坐在排成方形的桌子旁，桌上标有每个人所扮演的国家或组织名称：各国政府、气候非政府组织和非营利机构、原住民团体以及科技公司。戈利亚的任务是提供技术建议，帮助参与者做出具备科学素养的决策。

The point of the game was to stress-test the world’s response to a group of prospective technologies known collectively as solar radiation modification. These technologies promise to reverse global warming by reflecting away a portion of the sunlight reaching Earth, for example by spraying particles of sulphur dioxide or some other manufactured substance into the atmosphere. The cooling effect of this kind of solar geoengineering is widely accepted. It would mimic the well-known impacts of large volcanic eruptions, which temporarily cool the planet by half a degree or more.

这场游戏的目的是压力测试全球对一组统称为“太阳辐射调节”的前瞻性技术的反应。这些技术承诺通过反射掉部分到达地球的阳光来逆转全球变暖，例如向大气中喷洒二氧化硫颗粒或其他人工物质。这种太阳地球工程的降温效果已得到广泛认可。它将模拟大型火山喷发的已知影响，使地球暂时降温半摄氏度或更多。

But the fallout is less certain—and less equal. Some regions will suffer: Models predict drying in sub-Saharan Africa and more intense tropical storms in the Atlantic. The cooling effect would also last only as long as the geoengineering continued; after that the global temperature could shoot back up with wild and hard-to-predict effects.

但其后果却不那么确定，也不那么公平。一些地区将遭受打击：模型预测撒哈拉以南非洲地区将变得干旱，大西洋的强热带风暴将更加频繁。此外，降温效果仅在地球工程持续期间有效；一旦停止，全球气温可能会迅速回升，并产生剧烈且难以预测的影响。

Until recently, the idea of solar radiation modification was a speculative niche of climate science. That has changed fast. Private firms are exploring solar geoengineering as a commercial opportunity: Last year, a US-Israeli startup called Stardust Solutions raised $60 million, and in May it released details of a suite of new inventions it claims would give humans the ability to dial down the global temperature as desired. In August, Elon Musk, whose company SpaceX might be a candidate for delivering geoengineering interventions, threw his voice behind solar geoengineering, writing on X: “Space satellites to control temperature and massive geo-engineering will be needed or it will be game over.”

直到最近，太阳辐射调节的想法还只是气候科学中一个推测性的细分领域。这种情况变化很快。私营企业正在将太阳地球工程作为商业机会进行探索：去年，一家名为“星尘解决方案”（Stardust Solutions）的美国-以色列初创公司筹集了6000万美元，并在五月份发布了一系列新发明，声称这些发明将使人类能够按需调节全球气温。八月，埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）——其公司SpaceX可能是实施地球工程干预的候选者——公开支持太阳地球工程，他在X上写道：“需要太空卫星来控制温度和进行大规模地球工程，否则一切就完了。”

The world is going to have to make decisions about how to govern this technology much sooner than most policymakers imagine, Cynthia Scharf, a former UN advisor, told WIRED. “It’s not 15 years from now; it’s in the next decade, easily.”

前联合国顾问辛西娅·沙夫（Cynthia Scharf）告诉《连线》杂志，世界将不得不比大多数政策制定者想象的更早做出关于如何管理这项技术的决定。“这并不是15年后的事，很可能就在未来十年内。”

It was against this backdrop that Danielle Young, an assistant professor in international relations at Leeds University, arranged the war game. Its setting was a hastily convened UN committee charged with coordinating the international response to developments in solar geoengineering. The game unfolded over simulated meetings set at three points in time: the present, September 2027, and September 2028. Each step ratcheted up the stakes, with the game creators introducing new advances in sunlight-reflecting technology. As in real life, no one knew all the facts, and players had to respond to events that were bringing the world closer to a full-scale attempt at deploying solar geoengineering tech, even when they may not have a full picture of what had truly occurred—or what any of the others were up to.

正是在这种背景下，利兹大学国际关系助理教授丹妮尔·杨（Danielle Young）组织了这场兵棋推演。其背景设定为一个仓促召集的联合国委员会，负责协调国际社会对太阳地球工程发展的反应。游戏通过设定在三个时间点的模拟会议展开：现在、2027年9月和2028年9月。随着游戏创造者引入阳光反射技术的新进展，每一步的赌注都在增加。正如现实生活中一样，没有人掌握所有事实，玩家必须对那些将世界推向全面部署太阳地球工程技术边缘的事件做出反应，即使他们可能并不完全了解真正发生了什么，或者其他人正在策划什么。

The first session set the tone. Distrust and disinformation dominated. As participants discussed rules governing outdoor experiments in an attempt to agree an international deal, players representing both the US and China told the group they could not sign a deal that constrained their pursuit of research considered to be in their “national interest.” Nor could they accept a deal that would see their superpower rival taking the lead technologically. Speaking to WIRED, Jeffrey Nielsen, a major in the US Army who played the role of a US national security attaché, summarized the position as “worse than no deal at all is any deal that favors China.”

第一场会议定下了基调。不信任和虚假信息占据了主导地位。当参与者讨论管理户外实验的规则以试图达成一项国际协议时，代表美国和中国的玩家告诉小组，他们不能签署任何限制其追求被视为“国家利益”的研究的协议。他们也无法接受任何会让超级大国竞争对手在技术上领先的协议。在接受《连线》采访时，扮演美国国家安全随员的美国陆军少校杰弗里·尼尔森（Jeffrey Nielsen）将这一立场总结为：“任何有利于中国的协议，都比没有协议更糟糕。”

Tensions escalated when the team running the simulation handed the Russian delegates an “intelligence report” indicating they had found a plane near the Bering Strait believed to be involved in a US geoengineering research program. The US team—which was indeed flying research missions—accused Russia of disinformation.

当负责模拟的团队向俄罗斯代表递交一份“情报报告”，称他们在白令海峡附近发现了一架据信参与美国地球工程研究项目的飞机时，紧张局势升级了。美国团队——他们确实在执行研究任务——指责俄罗斯散布虚假信息。

Meanwhile, the US became convinced China was also conducting research and developing its own program. Beijing’s representatives had tried to insert language into a mooted deal that would ensure no retroactive punishment for past experiments. Then, China approached a player representing SpaceX to float the idea of a technology-sharing program. In a private discussion away from the group, the SpaceX player immediately reported the Chinese approach to the US team. The US demanded an international investigation. The finger-pointing continued, and countries abandoned the talks. The Canadian representative called it a “humiliating defeat.”

与此同时，美国确信中国也在进行研究并开发自己的项目。北京的代表曾试图在拟议的协议中加入条款，以确保不对过去的实验进行追溯性惩罚。随后，中国接触了一位代表SpaceX的玩家，提出了技术共享项目的想法。在小组之外的一次私下讨论中，SpaceX的玩家立即向美国团队报告了中方的接触。美国要求进行国际调查。相互指责持续不断，各国最终放弃了谈判。加拿大代表称这是一场“耻辱性的失败”。

At the end of the session, Nielsen was pumped. He’d busted China and derailed any prospect of a global deal. In the context of the game, he told WIRED, it was a “humungous victory” for the Americans. But Young, the researcher who designed the scenario, said the Chinese were not, in fact, conducting experiments in the game. Mutual suspicion meant all parties left the room believing the others were moving as quick.

会议结束时，尼尔森感到非常兴奋。他挫败了中国，并破坏了达成全球协议的任何前景。他告诉《连线》，在游戏背景下，这对美国人来说是一场“巨大的胜利”。但设计该场景的研究员杨表示，事实上，中国在游戏中并没有进行任何实验。相互猜忌意味着所有参与者离开房间时，都认为其他人正在迅速行动。