Mars may be a hellhole, but the moon is not far behind

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Welcome to the second space race. You can be forgiven for experiencing déjà vu. Last time, it was the Soviet Union and the United States vying to be the first to plant some flags. Now it’s a sprint to the lunar surface between America and China—alongside a host of varyingly friendly and rival nations—plus a cornucopia of private spaceflight companies. And this time it looks like they’re getting ready to set up camp.

欢迎来到第二次太空竞赛。如果你感到似曾相识，那也是情有可原的。上一次，是苏联和美国争相插旗。而现在，这是一场美国与中国之间——以及众多立场各异的友好或竞争国家之间——再加上一大批私营航天公司共同参与的月球表面冲刺。这一次，他们似乎准备好要安营扎寨了。

There will be, the contenders say, bases on the moon, permanently inhabited castles under the stars. The notion of a moon base, fanciful as it might sound, isn’t new. But this year, under the leadership of Administrator Jared Isaacman, NASA has been flooding the zone with bold announcements. If all goes according to plan—a plan that will likely cost tens of billions of dollars to start—there will be drones, robotic landers, communication satellites, and a nuclear power plant; there will be plant terrariums and moonquake sensors; there will be mechanized scouts exploring craters for water.

竞争者们表示，月球上将建立基地，成为星空下永久居住的城堡。月球基地的概念听起来虽然天马行空，但并不新鲜。然而今年，在局长贾里德·艾萨克曼（Jared Isaacman）的领导下，美国国家航空航天局（NASA）一直在密集发布大胆的公告。如果一切按计划进行——这项计划启动时可能耗资数百亿美元——未来将会有无人机、机器人着陆器、通信卫星和核电站；会有植物生态箱和月震传感器；还会有机械侦察兵在陨石坑中寻找水源。

Initial astronaut missions to the lunar surface, which the US is currently planning to start in 2028, will be focused on exploration and technological experimentation. But the idea is that we will—some time in the 2030s—get to a point where there will be habitation quarters for long-term stays, surrounded by a network of scientific research stations, resource mining and processing plants, and landing pads for spaceships. “It’s going to be an expanse,” says Carlos García-Galán, NASA’s moon base program manager—one that will add up to “hundreds of square miles.”

美国目前计划于2028年开始的首次载人登月任务，将侧重于探索和技术实验。但我们的构想是，在2030年代的某个时候，我们将达到一个阶段，即拥有供长期居住的住所，周围环绕着科学研究站、资源开采和加工厂以及航天器着陆场网络。NASA月球基地项目经理卡洛斯·加西亚-加兰（Carlos García-Galán）表示：“这将是一个广阔的区域，总面积将达到数百平方英里。”

The effort is undoubtedly being fueled by nationalistic competition. China has near-identical plans to build its own base on the moon. And being first matters, because the “victor” gets to define the terms. What is the moon, exactly? Is it a militarized outpost? Is it a manufacturing hub? Is it a wilderness to be studied and preserved? But there are also other reasons to go. Earth’s companion contains primeval rocks that hold clues to the formation of the entire solar system.

这项努力无疑是由民族主义竞争所推动的。中国也有几乎相同的计划，要在月球上建立自己的基地。抢占先机至关重要，因为“胜利者”可以制定规则。月球究竟是什么？是一个军事化前哨站？是一个制造中心？还是一个需要研究和保护的荒野？但去月球还有其他原因。地球的这位伙伴拥有原始岩石，其中蕴含着整个太阳系形成的线索。

The lunar surface, with virtually no atmosphere in the way, is an ideal place to put telescopes that could examine the most ancient epochs of the cosmos. The far side of the moon would be “a fantastic place to explore the further universe,” says Josef Aschbacher, the European Space Agency’s director general. And it’s way more energy efficient to launch rockets from the low-gravity lunar surface than it is from Earth, meaning sending astronauts—or robotic spacecraft—farther into the solar system will become much less difficult. “The moon is critical. It will be a stepping stone for going further—that means to Mars and beyond,” says Aschbacher.

月球表面几乎没有大气层阻隔，是放置望远镜以观测宇宙最古老纪元的理想场所。欧洲航天局局长约瑟夫·阿施巴赫（Josef Aschbacher）表示，月球背面将是“探索更遥远宇宙的绝佳地点”。此外，从低重力的月球表面发射火箭比从地球发射要节能得多，这意味着将宇航员或机器人航天器送往太阳系更深处将变得容易得多。阿施巴赫说：“月球至关重要。它将成为我们走得更远的垫脚石——这意味着前往火星及更远的地方。”

But if these bold visions are to become reality, there’s a daunting amount of work to be done. A sprawling moon base must be safe for its astronaut inhabitants—protected from falling asteroids, endless cosmic radiation, razor-sharp lunar dust, and torturous temperature swings. It also must be somewhat self-sustaining, so that it can weather changing political fortunes and not cost ruinous amounts of money to maintain. For that, we’ll need to find a way to use the moon’s resources to keep the base operating—and ideally generating revenue.

但如果这些大胆的愿景要成为现实，还有大量艰巨的工作要做。庞大的月球基地必须确保宇航员居住者的安全——保护他们免受坠落小行星、无尽宇宙辐射、锋利月尘和极端温度波动的伤害。它还必须具备一定的自我维持能力，以便能够经受住政治局势的变化，且维护成本不会高到令人破产。为此，我们需要找到利用月球资源来维持基地运行的方法，最好还能产生收益。

And we’ll need autonomous robots that can build, maintain, and expand the base even when their human masters aren’t present. “It’s almost like starting civilization from scratch,” says Simon Middleburgh, co-director of the Nuclear Futures Institute at Bangor University in Wales. Assuming we can overcome these starting challenges, decades from now—let’s say, by the year 2100—our initial moon bases could grow from barely visible structures into luminous cities, perhaps not too dissimilar from those dreamed up by authors and screenwriters the world over. “It’s like science fiction today that we really want to turn into a reality,” says García-Galán.

我们还需要自主机器人，即使在人类主人不在场的情况下，也能建造、维护和扩展基地。威尔士班戈大学核未来研究所联席主任西蒙·米德尔堡（Simon Middleburgh）说：“这几乎就像是从零开始建立文明。”假设我们能克服这些初始挑战，几十年后——比如到2100年——我们最初的月球基地可能会从几乎看不见的结构成长为灯火辉煌的城市，或许与世界各地的作家和编剧们构想的城市相差无几。加西亚-加兰说：“这就像是今天的科幻小说，我们非常希望将其变为现实。”

Will anyone succeed? The moon is a tremendously hostile place to set up camp. In general, daytime temperatures can reach more than 250 °F; at night, they can plummet to less than –200 °F. Exposed to the vacuum of space, the surface is constantly showered in carcinogenic radiation and frequently hit by meteoroids. And its volcanic dust is sticky and corrosive, a destroyer of equipment and choker of lungs. Sadly, the lunar south pole—the area NASA is targeting—is even harsher.

有人会成功吗？月球是一个极其恶劣的安营扎寨之地。通常情况下，白天的温度可超过250华氏度（约121摄氏度）；到了晚上，温度会骤降至零下200华氏度（约零下129摄氏度）以下。暴露在真空的太空中，月球表面不断受到致癌辐射的洗礼，并频繁遭受陨石撞击。此外，其火山尘埃具有粘性和腐蚀性，是设备的破坏者，也是肺部的窒息源。遗憾的是，NASA瞄准的月球南极地区环境更为严酷。

NASA wants to build a base there because its permanently shadowed craters are thought to harbor caches of water ice, which would be more precious than gold. Purify it, and you can water crops and hydrate astronauts; split it into oxygen and hydrogen, and you have breathable air and rocket propellant. But the temperature in those craters can be lower than –410 °F, making them some of the coldest places in the known universe. On the surface outside those pits, astronauts would be bathed in the scorching sun for 14 days before experiencing an equally long frigid night.

NASA想在那里建立基地，因为人们认为其永久阴影区陨石坑中蕴藏着水冰，这比黄金还要珍贵。净化后，可以灌溉农作物并为宇航员提供饮用水；将其分解为氧气和氢气，就能获得可呼吸的空气和火箭推进剂。但这些陨石坑内的温度可能低于零下410华氏度（约零下246摄氏度），使其成为已知宇宙中最寒冷的地方之一。在这些坑外的表面，宇航员将沐浴在灼热的阳光下14天，随后经历同样漫长的严寒黑夜。

But there is only so much money we can spend on safety. “What it comes down to is acceptable risk of death,” Philip Metzger, a spaceflight engineering researcher at the Florida Space Institute, said while pondering some of the dangers. “What can we reasonably survive without breaking the bank?” Temperature is one of the easiest problems to handle. Materials science has come a long way, and there are myriad metals, ceramics, plastics, compounds, and alloys that can resist wild temperature swings. Radiators keep things cool; heaters keep batteries from dying prematurely.

但我们在安全上能投入的资金是有限的。佛罗里达太空研究所的航天工程研究员菲利普·梅茨格（Philip Metzger）在思考一些危险时说：“归根结底，这是可接受的死亡风险问题。在不倾家荡产的前提下，我们能合理地生存下来吗？”温度是最容易解决的问题之一。材料科学已经取得了长足进步，有无数的金属、陶瓷、塑料、化合物和合金可以抵御剧烈的温度波动。散热器可以保持低温，加热器可以防止电池过早耗尽。

Astronauts survive just fine too, with their fancy spacesuits—but that technology has proved itself only during brief excursions. It’s not yet clear how long this equipment could operate under such tempestuous conditions. The temperature in the moon’s south pole craters can be lower than –410 °F, making them some of the coldest places in the known universe. Outside those pits, astronauts would be bathed in the scorching sun for 14 days bef

宇航员穿着精良的宇航服也能很好地生存——但这项技术目前仅在短时间的考察中得到了验证。目前尚不清楚这些设备在如此恶劣的条件下能运行多久。月球南极陨石坑内的温度可能低于零下410华氏度，使其成为已知宇宙中最寒冷的地方之一。在这些坑外，宇航员将沐浴在灼热的阳光下14天，随后……