Earth’s Condition Is ‘Serious and Getting Worse’ as Climate Change Intensifies
Earth’s Condition Is ‘Serious and Getting Worse’ as Climate Change Intensifies
Save this storySave this storyThe climate just got its annual checkup, and the results aren’t looking so hot.“If Earth were a patient coming in for an annual physical, I would say its condition is serious and getting worse,” Oregon State University researcher Bill Ripple says.
气候状况刚刚完成了年度体检，结果并不乐观。俄勒冈州立大学的研究员比尔·里普尔（Bill Ripple）表示：“如果地球是一位来做年度体检的病人，我会说它的病情很严重，而且正在恶化。”
Ripple is the lead author of a new paper chronicling the state of the climate, published on Wednesday in BioScience. The findings show that seven of the 16 planetary vital signs tracked by the researchers have never been in a more extreme state.
里普尔是一篇记录气候状况的新论文的主要作者，该论文于周三发表在《生物科学》（BioScience）杂志上。研究结果显示，研究人员追踪的16项地球生命体征中，有7项正处于有史以来最极端的水平。
That includes the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, which is 50 percent higher than preindustrial levels due to burning fossil fuels, as well as symptoms of burning all that oil, coal, and gas. Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have shrunk to record lows, while ocean heat has soared to record highs.
其中包括大气中的二氧化碳含量，由于化石燃料的燃烧，其含量比工业化前水平高出50%，此外还有燃烧石油、煤炭和天然气所带来的各种症状。格陵兰岛和南极洲的冰盖已缩减至历史最低点，而海洋热量则飙升至历史最高水平。
Climate change has already quickened the pace of warming from about 0.05 degrees Celsius per decade from 1880 through 1970 to 0.36 degrees Celsius per decade since 2010, according to the analysis. While the global average temperature, including land, isn’t at a record extreme, that may change by the end of the year as El Niño strengthens. The natural climate pattern is characterized by a hotter-than-normal Pacific Ocean, but it also boosts global heat levels by pouring more energy into the atmosphere. This year’s El Niño is shaping up to be one for the record books.
根据分析，气候变化已经加快了变暖的速度，从1880年至1970年间的每十年约0.05摄氏度，上升到2010年以来的每十年0.36摄氏度。虽然包括陆地在内的全球平均气温尚未达到创纪录的极端水平，但随着厄尔尼诺现象的加强，这种情况可能会在今年年底发生改变。这种自然气候模式的特征是太平洋海温异常升高，它通过向大气注入更多能量，进一步推高了全球热量水平。今年的厄尔尼诺现象正呈现出破纪录的趋势。
“A strong El Niño could temporarily push global temperatures even higher, while bringing additional heat and drought to vulnerable regions,” says Ripple. He adds that “El Niño is a natural phenomenon, but it’s now occurring on top of a much warmer planet. That makes its impacts potentially more dangerous.”
里普尔说：“强厄尔尼诺现象可能会暂时将全球气温推得更高，同时给脆弱地区带来额外的炎热和干旱。”他补充道：“厄尔尼诺是一种自然现象，但它现在发生在一个比以往温暖得多的星球上。这使得其影响可能更加危险。”
Of particular concern are ecosystems such as coral reefs and tropical forests. The spread of ocean heat is likely to fuel a mass coral die-off, known as coral bleaching. With each successive wave of bleaching, reefs become less resilient. Corals are among the ecosystems most threatened by climate change; if the planet warms beyond 1.5 degrees Celsius, most of the world’s coral will be unlikely to survive.
特别令人担忧的是珊瑚礁和热带雨林等生态系统。海洋热量的扩散很可能会引发大规模的珊瑚死亡，即所谓的“珊瑚白化”。随着每一波白化浪潮的袭来，珊瑚礁的恢复力变得越来越弱。珊瑚是受气候变化威胁最严重的生态系统之一；如果地球升温超过1.5摄氏度，世界上大部分珊瑚将很难存活。
Tropical forests also face pressure from El Niño. This is especially true of the Amazon, which tends to see dry weather during this climate pattern. The timing couldn’t be more dire: The region, dubbed “the world’s lungs,” is already under intense pressure from logging and mining interests and the possible return of a right-wing government in Brazil that prioritizes extraction and land clearing over conservation.
热带雨林也面临着来自厄尔尼诺现象的压力。亚马逊雨林的情况尤其如此，在这种气候模式下，它往往会出现干燥天气。时机再糟糕不过了：这个被称为“地球之肺”的地区，已经承受着来自伐木和采矿利益集团的巨大压力，而且巴西可能回归的右翼政府更倾向于资源开采和土地清理，而非环境保护。
The new report also warns that the Amazon is among the ecosystems at risk of crossing a tipping point—that is, reaching a threshold where it shifts from a tropical rainforest into something more resembling savanna. It’s highly unlikely that crossing that tipping point is imminent, let alone something that will happen this year. But this year’s blast of El Niño–influenced weather will edge it closer.
这份新报告还警告称，亚马逊雨林属于面临跨越临界点风险的生态系统之一——即达到一个阈值，使其从热带雨林转变为更像稀树草原的地貌。跨越这一临界点不太可能迫在眉睫，更不用说今年就会发生。但今年受厄尔尼诺影响的极端天气将使其离这一临界点更近一步。
“Warming, drought, and deforestation could push the Amazon toward widespread forest degradation,” Ripple says. “My concern is that these changes could interact, making them increasingly difficult to stop.”
里普尔说：“变暖、干旱和森林砍伐可能会将亚马逊推向大范围的森林退化。我担心的是，这些变化可能会相互作用，使其变得越来越难以阻止。”
The report is an avalanche of bad news for the climate, though it does note that carbon-free forms of energy are playing a bigger role in the power grid. The report calls it a sign we’re in the “Age of Electricity.” Despite that, annual greenhouse gas emissions are at record highs. In other words, the world is still smoking a pack a day, even at the risk of losing a lung.
这份报告对气候而言是一连串的坏消息，尽管它确实指出无碳能源在电网中正发挥着更大的作用。报告称这是我们进入“电力时代”的一个迹象。尽管如此，年度温室气体排放量仍处于历史最高水平。换句话说，世界仍然每天在“抽一包烟”，即使冒着失去肺部的风险。
“There are some encouraging signs, especially the growth of renewable energy, but they aren’t yet enough to reverse the overall deterioration,” Ripple says. “The climate emergency is not something waiting for us in the future. We are already living through it.”
里普尔说：“有一些令人鼓舞的迹象，特别是可再生能源的增长，但它们还不足以扭转整体的恶化趋势。气候紧急状态并不是未来才等待着我们的事情。我们正身处其中。”