Trump Aides Admit the House Is a Lost Cause

Trump White House aides see almost no paths to Republicans keeping control of the House in the midterm elections and are more focused on redoubling their efforts to save the Senate majority.

特朗普白宫助手们认为，共和党在中期选举中保住众议院控制权几乎已无望，因此他们正将重心转向加倍努力以保住参议院的多数席位。

That has been the takeaway for officials in GOP groups who have been discussing the state of play with White House aides in recent weeks, according to three sources familiar with the situation.

据三位知情人士透露，这是近期与白宫助手讨论选情的共和党团体官员们得出的结论。

It all comes as the White House moves into damage-control mode after contemplating for the first time earlier this month, as Inner Loop previously reported, that Republicans could possibly lose both chambers of Congress.

此前《内环》（Inner Loop）曾报道，本月初白宫首次意识到共和党可能失去国会两院的控制权，随后便进入了损害控制模式。

The general expectation is that the House has become a lost cause. Races that Republican congressional leadership once thought they could flip in order to offset Democratic gains are no longer considered attainable.

目前的普遍预期是众议院已无力回天。共和党国会领导层曾认为可以翻盘以抵消民主党优势的选区，现在已被认为无法实现。

The Congressional Leadership Fund, the super PAC aligned with Speaker Mike Johnson, has now pulled ad buys in Democratic districts in Michigan and Ohio they were hoping to flip, as well as in the Republican seat being vacated in Nebraska by the retiring Don Bacon. The fund also started canceling remaining ad reservations in two House races where Republicans are seeking reelection in New Jersey and Iowa.

与众议院议长迈克·约翰逊（Mike Johnson）结盟的超级政治行动委员会“国会领导基金”（Congressional Leadership Fund）现已撤回了在密歇根州和俄亥俄州民主党选区的广告投放，这些选区原本是他们希望翻盘的目标；同时，他们也撤回了内布拉斯加州唐·培根（Don Bacon）退休后留下的共和党席位的广告。该基金还开始取消在新泽西州和爱荷华州两个共和党寻求连任的众议院选区中剩余的广告预订。

White House aides have shifted their focus to pushing an all-out defense of the Senate majority, which is also looking problematic but to a lesser degree than the House, the sources say. (Polling models and prediction markets agree.)

消息人士称，白宫助手已将重心转移到全力保卫参议院多数席位上，尽管参议院的情况也不容乐观，但程度较众议院稍轻。（民调模型和预测市场对此表示认同。）

The aides see the Senate as still in play in large part because early returns for mail ballots have been relatively strong and comparable to 2024 presidential election levels in key Senate battleground states, sources say.

消息人士称，助手们认为参议院选情仍有变数，很大程度上是因为在关键的参议院战场州，邮寄选票的早期回流情况相对强劲，与2024年总统大选水平相当。

Trump officials at MAGA Inc. have also privately discussed how if Republicans can win some combination of senate seats in Alaska, Iowa, and Ohio, that would form a firewall that complicates Democrats’ path to snatching control of the Senate.

“MAGA Inc.”的特朗普团队官员也私下讨论过，如果共和党能在阿拉斯加州、爱荷华州和俄亥俄州的参议院席位中赢得一定组合，将形成一道防火墙，从而增加民主党夺取参议院控制权的难度。

Still, Trump officials appear to have conceded they are unlikely to win in North Carolina. Senate Republicans’ campaign arm has paused ad spending in North Carolina since the start of October, mirroring pullbacks by other outside groups.

尽管如此，特朗普团队似乎已承认在北卡罗来纳州获胜的可能性不大。自10月初以来，参议院共和党竞选机构已暂停在北卡罗来纳州的广告支出，这与其他外部团体的撤资行动如出一辙。

“President Trump is committed to maintaining Republican majorities in both the House and Senate,” says White House spokesperson Liz Huston in a statement.

白宫发言人利兹·休斯顿（Liz Huston）在一份声明中表示：“特朗普总统致力于维持共和党在众议院和参议院的多数席位。”

The state of play—retreating from a state like North Carolina, where Michael Whatley, a former Republican National Committee chair is on the ballot—would have been unthinkable just a few months ago.

这种选情——从北卡罗来纳州这样的地方撤退，而前共和党全国委员会主席迈克尔·沃特利（Michael Whatley）正是该州的候选人——在几个月前是不可想象的。

But it speaks to the torrid political climate for Republicans heading into the last stretch of the midterm cycle, which appears to worsen by the week as high gas and living prices caused by the Iran war remain sticky in voters’ minds.

但这反映出共和党在进入中期选举最后冲刺阶段时所面临的严峻政治气候，随着伊朗战争导致的油价和生活成本高企持续困扰选民，这种气候似乎每周都在恶化。

With 20 days until the election, sources say, Trump officials are looking to get maximum turnout from the MAGA base in November, rather than trying to capture swing voters who polls show are not breaking for Republicans.

消息人士称，距离选举还有20天，特朗普团队正寻求在11月最大限度地提高MAGA基本盘的投票率，而不是试图争取那些民调显示并未倾向共和党的摇摆选民。

“Republicans remain laser focused on winning and protecting and expanding President Trump’s majorities,” says Republican National Committee spokesperson Natalie Baldassare in a statement. “We’re thinking outside the box to fight the typical midterm precedent.”

共和党全国委员会发言人娜塔莉·巴尔达萨雷（Natalie Baldassare）在一份声明中表示：“共和党人仍然专注于赢得、保护和扩大特朗普总统的多数席位。我们正在跳出固有思维，以对抗典型的中期选举先例。”

The effort has manifested in a direct voter outreach play with the president crisscrossing the country to reach out directly to his supporters, showing up at rallies in states that should have been reliably Republican.

这一努力体现为直接的选民外联行动，总统奔波于全国各地直接接触支持者，并在本应是共和党稳赢的州出席集会。

Trump started the week by hitting the trail in Ohio, where Democratic candidate Sherrod Brown has been polling consistently ahead of Republican Jon Husted, who has weathered negative ads branding him as “the face of data centers.”

特朗普本周伊始便在俄亥俄州展开竞选活动，在该州，民主党候选人谢罗德·布朗（Sherrod Brown）的民调一直领先于共和党人乔恩·赫斯特（Jon Husted），后者此前一直承受着将其贴上“数据中心代言人”标签的负面广告攻击。

On Tuesday, the president flew to Wasilla, Alaska—once the home of former governor and vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin—to help the Republican Senate incumbent Dan Sullivan, who has been trailing Democrat Mary Peltola.

周二，总统飞往阿拉斯加州瓦西拉（Wasilla）——前州长兼副总统候选人萨拉·佩林（Sarah Palin）的故乡——以帮助共和党参议员丹·沙利文（Dan Sullivan），他目前落后于民主党人玛丽·佩尔托拉（Mary Peltola）。

And after stumping in Arizona and Kentucky later this week, Trump is set to host a $1 million-per-plate fundraiser dinner for MAGA Inc. at his Mar-a-Lago club, replenishing a war chest that is being emptied at an increasing rate.

在本周晚些时候于亚利桑那州和肯塔基州进行竞选活动后，特朗普计划在他的海湖庄园俱乐部为“MAGA Inc.”举办一场每位100万美元的筹款晚宴，以补充正以惊人速度耗尽的竞选资金。

Trump has remained steadfast in his belief that he can drive his supporters to vote in November if he hits the trail, as he did in the 2016 and 2024 presidential elections, a person familiar with his thinking tells Inner Loop.

一位熟悉特朗普想法的人士告诉《内环》，特朗普始终坚信，只要他像在2016年和2024年总统大选中那样亲自奔走，就能推动支持者在11月投票。

But Trump, whose polling continues to be among the worst on record for any president, is not always wanted at rallies. To date, the president has not done a rally in Iowa with Republican candidate Ashley Hinson, who recently began to buck the president and called for measures that would help end the Iran war altogether.

然而，特朗普的民调支持率持续处于历任总统中的最低水平，他并不总是受欢迎的集会嘉宾。迄今为止，总统尚未与爱荷华州共和党候选人阿什利·辛森（Ashley Hinson）共同举行集会，后者最近开始反抗总统，并呼吁采取措施彻底结束伊朗战争。

This is an edition of Hugo Lowell’s Inner Loop newsletter. Read previous newsletters here.

这是雨果·洛厄尔（Hugo Lowell）的《内环》通讯。点击此处阅读往期通讯。