The AI race is back on

The AI race is back on. Google and Meta are challenging Anthropic and OpenAI at the AI frontier.

人工智能竞赛再次开启。谷歌和 Meta 正在人工智能前沿领域向 Anthropic 和 OpenAI 发起挑战。

Last week, Anthropic and OpenAI looked like they had the AI race to themselves, pulling ahead with increasingly powerful models that left their rivals in the dust. Google seemed hopelessly far behind, while Meta, despite spending billions to revive its floundering AI ambitions, had yet to establish itself as a serious contender. Even the latest models coming out of China, impressive as they were, appeared to be playing catch-up.

上周，Anthropic 和 OpenAI 似乎独占了人工智能竞赛，凭借日益强大的模型遥遥领先，将竞争对手甩在身后。谷歌看起来已远远落后，而 Meta 尽管投入数十亿美元试图重振其陷入困境的人工智能雄心，但尚未确立其作为有力竞争者的地位。即使是中国推出的最新模型，尽管令人印象深刻，也似乎仍处于追赶状态。

Then, in the space of a few days, everything changed. Google and Meta both unveiled frontier models they claim can go toe to toe with the best from OpenAI and Anthropic. Suddenly, the race is back on — and it’s anyone’s game.

然而，在短短几天内，一切都改变了。谷歌和 Meta 都发布了前沿模型，并声称能够与 OpenAI 和 Anthropic 的顶尖产品一较高下。突然之间，竞赛再次开启，胜负难料。

Until this week, Google looked like it had permanently lost its place among the AI front-runners. Since releasing Gemini 3 late last year, the tech giant had delivered little more than incremental improvements. Gemini 3 was formidable when it launched, but its lead was fleeting, and it struggled to keep up with later offerings from OpenAI and Anthropic, or even some of the open-weight models emerging from China.

直到本周之前，谷歌似乎已经永久失去了其在人工智能领跑者中的地位。自去年年底发布 Gemini 3 以来，这家科技巨头几乎没有带来什么实质性的进步。Gemini 3 在发布时确实强大，但其领先优势转瞬即逝，且难以跟上 OpenAI 和 Anthropic 后续推出的产品，甚至难以跟上中国出现的一些开放权重模型。

A series of internal shake-ups only added to the sense that Google was retreating from the AI frontier. Veteran executive Jeff Dean departed the company with a number of other AI researchers to launch a new startup. Demis Hassabis, the Nobel laureate who spent years at the helm of Google’s AI powerhouse DeepMind, stepped back from day-to-day leadership. Other AI-related teams were moved out of DeepMind and into Google proper. Together, the changes signaled a broader shift in Google’s AI center of gravity, moving away from London and toward California, fueling speculation the tech giant was beginning to prioritize commercializing AI over research.

一系列内部人事变动进一步加剧了人们对谷歌正在从人工智能前沿撤退的印象。资深高管 Jeff Dean 与多位人工智能研究人员离职并创办了一家新初创公司。曾多年执掌谷歌人工智能核心部门 DeepMind 的诺贝尔奖得主 Demis Hassabis 也退出了日常领导工作。其他与人工智能相关的团队被从 DeepMind 调入谷歌总部。这些变化共同标志着谷歌人工智能重心发生了更广泛的转移，从伦敦转向加州，引发了人们对这家科技巨头开始优先考虑人工智能商业化而非研究的猜测。

Then, on Tuesday, Google upended that narrative with the release of Gemini 4 Argon, a new frontier model the company claims matches or beats flagship offerings from OpenAI and Anthropic on numerous benchmarks, whatever value benchmarks are still worth. What’s more, Google has priced Argon aggressively: Per token, it’s undercutting its rivals by as much as 80 percent during its introductory period, and is still significantly cheaper once that promotion ends.

周二，谷歌发布了 Gemini 4 Argon，彻底颠覆了这一说法。这是一款新的前沿模型，谷歌声称其在多项基准测试中能够媲美甚至超越 OpenAI 和 Anthropic 的旗舰产品（无论这些基准测试还有多少参考价值）。此外，谷歌对 Argon 的定价极具侵略性：在推广期内，其每 Token 的价格比竞争对手低 80%，即便促销结束后，价格依然显著更低。

Meta’s arrival was arguably even more dramatic. Unlike Google, which had long been the one to beat in AI thanks to its deep pockets and DeepMind, Meta had never really established itself as a serious contender at the frontier. It was not through lack of trying, but its models struggled to make a mark. Last year, the company embarked on an ambitious and expensive overhaul of its AI operations, spending billions on talent and infrastructure, including Scale AI and its cofounder Alexandr Wang. In April, its new Superintelligence Labs released its first major model, Muse Spark. Impressive, but not quite frontier.

Meta 的入局可以说更为戏剧性。与凭借雄厚财力和 DeepMind 长期处于人工智能领先地位的谷歌不同，Meta 从未真正确立其作为前沿领域有力竞争者的地位。这并非因为缺乏尝试，而是其模型难以产生影响。去年，该公司对其人工智能业务进行了雄心勃勃且昂贵的改革，在人才和基础设施上投入了数十亿美元，包括与 Scale AI 及其联合创始人 Alexandr Wang 的合作。四月，其新的超级智能实验室发布了首个主要模型 Muse Spark。虽然令人印象深刻，但还算不上前沿。

That changed on Monday when Meta finally unveiled a model capable of competing with the industry’s very best. According to the company’s testing, Muse Wonder Full can compete with leading models from OpenAI and Anthropic, including GPT-6 Astra, Claude Opus 5.5, and Claude Fable 5.1, on numerous benchmarks. In other words, Mark Zuckerberg’s company has finally arrived at the AI frontier.

周一，情况发生了变化，Meta 终于发布了一款能够与业内顶尖产品竞争的模型。根据该公司的测试，Muse Wonder Full 在多项基准测试中可以与 OpenAI 和 Anthropic 的领先模型（包括 GPT-6 Astra、Claude Opus 5.5 和 Claude Fable 5.1）相抗衡。换句话说，马克·扎克伯格的公司终于抵达了人工智能的前沿。

The return of Google — and the arrival of Meta — makes the AI competition considerably more dynamic and shows just how quickly the balance of power can shift in the AI world. Both have extraordinarily deep pockets and vast ecosystems of products used by billions of people, advantages that AI upstarts like OpenAI and Anthropic simply cannot match. The success of Meta’s Muse agent assistant illustrates that advantage. Its popularity in such a short period of time, and despite the growing list of security and privacy concerns, shows the power of having billions of users within ready reach. OpenAI, meanwhile, is having to work harder to establish an ecosystem of its own, positioning itself as an alternative to Meta.

谷歌的回归和 Meta 的入局使人工智能竞争变得更加活跃，也表明了人工智能领域的力量平衡变化之快。两者都拥有极其雄厚的财力和数十亿人使用的庞大产品生态系统，这是 OpenAI 和 Anthropic 等人工智能初创公司无法比拟的优势。Meta 的 Muse 智能助手取得的成功就证明了这一点。尽管存在越来越多的安全和隐私担忧，但它在如此短的时间内就广受欢迎，显示了拥有数十亿触手可及的用户所带来的力量。与此同时，OpenAI 不得不更加努力地建立自己的生态系统，将自己定位为 Meta 的替代者。

All this comes as the AI race appears to be entering a new phase. The drive to develop ever more powerful models is becoming increasingly fraught. The growing array of safety concerns and rogue AI incidents means calls to slow development are growing louder. Open models are also getting better and better, making it harder for any one company to stay ahead for long.

这一切发生之际，人工智能竞赛似乎正进入一个新阶段。开发更强大模型的动力正变得越来越令人担忧。日益增多的安全隐患和人工智能失控事件意味着放缓发展的呼声越来越高。开源模型也变得越来越好，使得任何一家公司都难以长期保持领先地位。

If raw power and performance are no longer enough to stay ahead, Google and Meta have plenty of advantages not enjoyed by Anthropic and OpenAI. They may have spent a lot of time playing catch-up, but the past week shows it would be incredibly foolish to count either of them out.

如果单纯的算力和性能已不足以保持领先，那么谷歌和 Meta 拥有许多 Anthropic 和 OpenAI 所不具备的优势。他们可能花了很多时间在追赶，但过去一周的表现表明，轻视他们中的任何一方都是极其愚蠢的。