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Solar surpasses nuclear power globally for first time

由法国核能顾问迈克尔·施耐德（Mycle Schneider）监督的《2026年世界核工业状况报告》（WNISR）显示，仅风力发电在2025年3月的月度发电量上就超过了核能，随后太阳能也在4月实现了超越——这是全球月度太阳能发电量首次超过核能发电量。

From March 2025 through June 2026, either solar or wind individually generated more electricity than nuclear every month. In March, April and May 2026, both technologies independently surpassed nuclear generation.

根据该报告，2025年可再生能源与核能之间的差距显著扩大。全球太阳能装机容量增加了510吉瓦，达到2383吉瓦，同比增长27%；风能增加了创纪录的159吉瓦，达到1291吉瓦，增长了14%。相比之下，核能装机容量仅增加了1.5吉瓦，达到399.5吉瓦，而运行中的核能容量则减少了0.5吉瓦，降至368.6吉瓦。报告指出，核能容量在过去25年里基本保持平稳，而风能，尤其是太阳能，则实现了快速扩张。

The report’s PV figures, however, are based on relatively conservative estimates. More recent data from IEA PVPS indicate that global PV additions reached around 690 GW in 2025, about 180 GW more than the figure used by WNISR. This suggests the gap between solar and nuclear capacity – and their respective growth rates – was even wider than indicated in the report.

“对于那些期望看到一个蓬勃发展行业的人来说，核工业的现实相当令人清醒，”施耐德告诉《光伏杂志》。“最近，美国核能公司Holtec在计划上市的前几天搁置了首次公开募股（IPO），该公司原本希望通过此次上市筹集近10亿美元。其同行Fermi自2025年10月首次上市以来，股价已下跌了约80%。”

“The main reason? These companies have little or nothing to show on the ground to convince investors to continue providing cash,” he added. “Meanwhile, the world’s operating nuclear fleet increased output by 1.1% – with output declining outside China – while global solar power generation jumped by a stunning 30%, surpassing nuclear’s annual electricity production for the first time. One is tempted to say: It’s the growth rates, stupid!”

报告认为，电池成本的下降是光伏持续扩张的潜在推动力，特别是在电网面临可变可再生能源发电量增加以及电价处于低位或负值时期的情况下。2025年，电网级电池部署大幅加速，全年新增装机容量104吉瓦，储能容量257吉瓦时。超过78%的累计电池储能系统（BESS）容量是在2023年至2025年间安装的。

The report shows that the global nuclear sector is expanding slowly, with most new activity concentrated in China and Russia. As of July 1, 2026, 411 reactors were operating in 31 countries, excluding 30 units in long-term outage, with operating capacity at 374.7 GW. In 2025, nuclear plants generated 2,703 TWh, up 1.1% year on year, largely driven by a 7.6% increase in China. Outside China, nuclear generation declined by 0.2% and remained well below its 2006 level. Nuclear’s share of global electricity generation slipped to 8.8%, its lowest level in four and a half decades and roughly half its 1996 peak of 17.5%.

2025年有四座反应堆开始供电，同时有七座关闭，导致自2021年以来首次出现年度反应堆净增量为负的情况。在2006年至2025年间，共有104座反应堆启动，106座关闭。其中，中国贡献了53座启动且没有关闭记录，这意味着世界其他地区净减少了55座反应堆。尽管全球核能容量在过去二十年中净增加了21.5吉瓦，但仅中国就增加了52.3吉瓦，而中国以外地区的容量下降了近30.7吉瓦。

The construction pipeline has nevertheless expanded. Seventy-three reactors were under construction as of July 1, the highest number since 1987, with China accounting for 37. Russia remains the dominant international supplier, with Russian technology involved in 29 reactors under construction worldwide, including 22 outside Russia. Nine out of 10 reactors being built are in Asia or Eastern Europe.

根据报告，漫长的建设周期和延误仍然是新建核电项目的特征。2023年至2025年间并网的16座反应堆中，没有一座按计划完工，平均建设周期为10.9年。在2025年计划开始发电的13座反应堆中，只有四座如期实现。一些项目经历了异常漫长的周期，包括斯洛伐克的Mochovce-4（建设始于40多年前）和伊朗的Bushehr-2（建设始于1976年）。

Construction starts accelerated in 2025, however, reaching 12 units, the highest annual total since 2010. Nine were in China, two in Russia and one in South Korea. Of the 52 reactor construction starts recorded worldwide between 2020 and 2025, all but one involved the Chinese or Russian nuclear industries, either domestically or abroad.

报告质疑小型模块化反应堆（SMR）能否兑现其长期以来的商业承诺，并指出尽管政府支持和公共资金不断增加，但进展仍然有限。

“For decades, small modular reactors have been held out as holding great promise for expanding nuclear power into various new markets. Remarkably similar claims have been made by the nuclear industry in multiple countries. Nowhere have these claims come true,” the authors said.

作者对SMR的几项声称优势提出了质疑，包括更低的成本、模块化建设、更高的安全性、减少废物和更容易选址。许多商业提议的设计容量都在300兆瓦或以上，而报告中引用的分析表明，一些SMR设计产生的核废料可能是大型反应堆的2到30倍。