Gold is now the top U.S. export

Normally, America’s highest value exports are either oil, pharmaceuticals, or aircraft and their parts. Not now. Starting in October 2025, the value of gold exports has topped all other categories almost every month. For information on U.S. nonmonetary gold exports through December 2025, go to https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IEAXGG

通常情况下，美国价值最高的出口产品是石油、药品或飞机及其零部件。但现在情况变了。从 2025 年 10 月开始，黄金出口额几乎每个月都超过了所有其他类别。有关截至 2025 年 12 月美国非货币黄金出口的信息，请访问 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IEAXGG。

That’s not just because the price of gold reached record high prices. In February 2026, the tons of gold exported may have set an all-time record.

这不仅仅是因为金价创下了历史新高。2026 年 2 月，黄金出口吨数可能创下了历史纪录。

The majority of gold exports are going to Switzerland, almost certainly to the refiners there. The second greatest quantity is going to Hong Kong, which is the global destination for gold going to China. The third greatest quantity of exported gold is going to the United Kingdom, where the London Bullion Market Association is the world’s largest gold trading exchange.

大部分黄金出口流向了瑞士，几乎可以肯定是为了供应那里的精炼厂。第二大出口目的地是香港，它是黄金进入中国内地的全球中转站。第三大出口目的地是英国，伦敦金银市场协会是全球最大的黄金交易市场。

The U.S. government is still reporting that its gold reserves are unchanged, so these exports look to be coming from current mine output and recycling operations.

美国政府报告称其黄金储备保持不变，因此这些出口似乎来自当前的矿产产量和回收业务。

Why is this happening?

为什么会发生这种情况？

There is no official explanation of why U.S. gold exports have soared in recent months. But here is my speculation.

对于美国黄金出口近几个月为何激增，目前尚无官方解释。但这是我的推测。

When you put these factors together, my suspicion is that a high percentage of U.S. gold exports are going to China, though some must first detour through Swiss refineries to convert the gold into kilogram bars of acceptable purity. It is possible that the U.S. government may have acquiesced in this form of payment in return for other political concessions having to do with a number of global uncertainties.

综合这些因素，我怀疑美国很大一部分黄金出口最终流向了中国，尽管其中一些必须先经由瑞士精炼厂转手，将黄金加工成纯度达标的公斤金条。美国政府可能默许了这种支付方式，以换取在某些全球不确定性问题上的其他政治让步。

Can I prove this? No. But it does make sense, much more than any other explanation.

我能证明这一点吗？不能。但这确实说得通，比任何其他解释都更合理。

Last time I asked—Why did the Coinage Act of 1834 reduce the gold content in U.S. coins? From the late 1700s to the 1830s, the relative value of gold to silver had increased. As a result, pre-1834 U.S. gold coins contained a higher value of gold than their face value. Many were being melted down. In 1834, the U.S. government reduced the gold content in coins to match the face value to the international value of the gold they contained.

上次我问过——1834 年的《铸币法案》为何减少了美国硬币中的黄金含量？从 18 世纪末到 19 世纪 30 年代，黄金相对于白银的价值有所上升。因此，1834 年之前的美国金币所含黄金的价值高于其面值。许多金币被熔化了。1834 年，美国政府减少了硬币中的黄金含量，使硬币的面值与其所含黄金的国际价值相匹配。

Here is this week’s question. Which denominations has the U.S government issued in both coin and currency? Come back next week for the answer.

这是本周的问题。美国政府发行过哪些既有硬币又有纸币的面额？下周回来查看答案。

Patrick A. Heller was honored as a 2019 FUN Numismatic Ambassador. He is also the recipient of the American Numismatic Association 2018 Glenn Smedley Memorial Service Award, the 2017 Exemplary Service Award, the 2012 Harry Forman National Dealer of the Year Award, and the 2008 Presidential Award. Over the years, he has also been honored by the Numismatic Literary Guild, Professional Numismatists Guild, National Coin & Bullion Association, and the Michigan State Numismatic Society. He is the communications officer of Liberty Coin Service in Lansing, Michigan, and writes “Liberty’s Outlook,” a quarterly newsletter on rare coins and precious metals subjects. He now volunteers with the National Coin & Bullion Association as its Industry Issues Advisor. Past newsletter issues can be viewed at www.libertycoinservice.com. Some of his radio commentaries, “Things You ‘Know’ That Just Aren’t So,” and “Important News You Need To Know,” can be heard at 8:45 a.m. Wednesday and Friday mornings on 1320-AM WILS in Lansing (which streams live and becomes part of the audio archives posted at www.1320wils.com).

帕特里克·A·海勒（Patrick A. Heller）曾获 2019 年 FUN 钱币大使荣誉。他还是美国钱币协会 2018 年格伦·斯梅德利纪念服务奖、2017 年模范服务奖、2012 年哈里·福尔曼年度全国经销商奖和 2008 年总统奖的获得者。多年来，他还获得了钱币文学协会、专业钱币学家协会、全国硬币与金银协会以及密歇根州钱币协会的表彰。他是密歇根州兰辛市 Liberty Coin Service 的通讯官，并撰写关于稀有硬币和贵金属主题的季度通讯《Liberty’s Outlook》。他目前在全国硬币与金银协会担任行业问题顾问志愿者。往期通讯可在 www.libertycoinservice.com 查看。他的一些广播评论，如“你‘知道’但并非如此的事”（Things You ‘Know’ That Just Aren’t So）和“你需要知道的重要新闻”（Important News You Need To Know），可在每周三和周五上午 8:45 在兰辛的 1320-AM WILS 电台收听（该电台提供直播，并成为发布在 www.1320wils.com 上的音频档案的一部分）。

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钱币溢价下跌的趋势会逆转吗？

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Price Volatility and Capacity Problems with Precious Metals and Numismatics

贵金属和钱币的价格波动与容量问题