Data centers could erase decades of air quality gains

A rush of new data centers could bring air pollution roaring back to levels not seen since the 2000s in Texas, which has become ground zero for the physical infrastructure behind generative AI.

大量新建的数据中心可能会使德克萨斯州的空气污染水平回升至 2000 年代以来的最高点，该州已成为生成式人工智能背后物理基础设施的中心。

New and proposed data centers are demanding a tremendous amount of electricity. How developers and utilities meet that demand — with gas turbines or renewable energy — will determine just how dirty things will get. So far, though, things are looking grim.

新建和拟建的数据中心对电力的需求巨大。开发商和公用事业公司如何满足这些需求——是使用燃气轮机还是可再生能源——将决定环境污染的程度。然而，目前的情况看起来并不乐观。

Tech companies and data center developers are devising new ways to get enough electricity, including building out their own power sources. But if all planned data center projects were to plug into the electricity grid in Texas and be powered by the anticipated grid mix, soot and smog-forming pollutants would skyrocket, according to a new report from the Houston Advanced Research Center (HARC).

科技公司和数据中心开发商正在设计获取充足电力的新方法，包括建设自己的能源设施。但根据休斯顿先进研究中心（HARC）的一份新报告，如果所有计划中的数据中心项目都接入德克萨斯州的电网，并由预期的电网组合供电，那么烟尘和形成雾霾的污染物将会激增。

In just five years, it would be enough pollution to wipe out decades of gains in air quality. “There is a good chance that our children and grandchildren will breathe dirtier air than we did.”

仅在五年内，这些污染就足以抵消过去几十年来在空气质量方面取得的改善成果。“我们的子孙后代很有可能呼吸到比我们现在更浑浊的空气。”

In that scenario, fine particle pollution or soot from the power sector would more than triple, reaching its highest level since 2006. Smog-forming NOx emissions would increase 136 percent, approaching pollution levels from 2004. Planet-heating carbon dioxide pollution would climb 90 percent above what they were in 2025.

在这种情况下，电力部门产生的细颗粒物污染或烟尘将增加两倍以上，达到 2006 年以来的最高水平。形成雾霾的氮氧化物（NOx）排放量将增加 136%，接近 2004 年的污染水平。导致全球变暖的二氧化碳排放量将比 2025 年的水平攀升 90%。

That’s not set in stone, of course. HARC modeled different outcomes based on three different projections for data center energy demand. Many proposed data center projects are speculative and could fall by the wayside. And developers can limit the environmental impact of a data center by building solar and wind farms onsite.

当然，这并非不可改变。HARC 基于对数据中心能源需求的三种不同预测，模拟了不同的结果。许多拟建的数据中心项目具有投机性，可能会被搁置。此外，开发商可以通过在现场建设太阳能和风能发电场来限制数据中心对环境的影响。

NOx emissions could be up to 10 times lower if data centers pair grid power with renewable electricity generated onsite. But if developers decide to build gas engines on site to power their data centers as a way to avoid long wait times to connect to the grid, the opposite could also play out, resulting in the highest pollution levels possible.

如果数据中心将电网电力与现场产生的可再生能源相结合，氮氧化物排放量可能会降低多达 10 倍。但如果开发商为了避免漫长的电网接入等待时间，决定在现场建造燃气发动机为数据中心供电，情况可能会适得其反，导致污染水平达到最高。

Data center capacity is typically measured by how much power they draw, and Texas has become the leading data center market in this measure with 26 gigawatts of existing and under-construction capacity. Texas is also bracing for four times more proposed data center capacity running on power generated onsite than any other state, according to a separate Wood Mackenzie report published in March.

数据中心容量通常以其消耗的电量来衡量，德克萨斯州已成为该指标下的领先市场，拥有 26 吉瓦的现有及在建容量。根据伍德麦肯兹（Wood Mackenzie）3 月份发布的一份独立报告，德克萨斯州拟建的、使用现场发电的数据中心容量也是其他州的四倍。

And in many cases, developers are turning to less efficient gas turbine technology in order to speed construction — another trend that’s making the data center boom more polluting than it needs to be.

在许多情况下，开发商为了加快建设速度，转而使用效率较低的燃气轮机技术——这是导致数据中心繁荣带来的污染超出必要水平的另一个趋势。

“There is a good chance that our children and grandchildren will breathe dirtier air than we did,” John Hall, HARC CEO, said in a press release. “The transportation sector, the state, and other stakeholders have been working for decades to successfully bring these [emissions] numbers down, and that progress is now at risk.”

“我们的子孙后代很有可能呼吸到比我们现在更浑浊的空气，”HARC 首席执行官约翰·霍尔（John Hall）在一份新闻稿中表示。“交通部门、州政府和其他利益相关者几十年来一直致力于成功降低这些（排放）数据，而现在这一进展正面临风险。”