The 1.5°C goal of the Paris Agreement is no longer viable
The 1.5°C goal of the Paris Agreement is no longer viable
The target set in 2015 by the Paris Agreement—to limit global warming to 1.5°C by 2100—has become unachievable within the span of a single decade, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) notes in its 2026 Emissions Gap Report.
联合国环境规划署（UNEP）在其《2026年排放差距报告》中指出，2015年《巴黎协定》设定的目标——即到2100年将全球变暖限制在1.5°C以内——在十年内已变得无法实现。
“The opportunity to bridge the 1.5°C emissions gap with ‘no or limited’ overshoot has been lost,” states the report, titled “The Point of Return.”
这份题为《回归点》（The Point of Return）的报告称：“通过‘零或有限’超标来弥合1.5°C排放差距的机会已经丧失。”
Exceeding the 1.5°C threshold above pre-industrial levels is now imminent and inevitable.
超过工业化前水平1.5°C的阈值现已迫在眉睫且不可避免。
“Every additional fraction of a degree and additional year of warming above 1.5°C raises the risk of irreversible changes including in ice sheets, permafrost carbon, ocean circulation and coral systems, along with devastating human impacts,” the report states.
报告指出：“在1.5°C之上，每增加一度的升温和每一年的持续变暖，都会增加冰盖、永久冻土碳、海洋环流和珊瑚系统发生不可逆转变化的风险，并带来毁灭性的人类影响。”
The urgent task is to ensure that global warming remains below the 2°C threshold, with the aim of returning to 1.5°C by the end of the century. This is the only option left, according to UNEP.
当务之急是确保全球变暖保持在2°C阈值以下，目标是在本世纪末回归到1.5°C。据联合国环境规划署称，这是目前唯一剩下的选择。
To achieve this, global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions would need to be reduced by 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035, and 69% by 2040, relative to 2025 levels.
为实现这一目标，全球温室气体（GHG）排放量需在2025年的基础上，到2030年减少18%，到2035年减少45%，到2040年减少69%。
The current trajectory falls far short of this. Even assuming that the commitments made by governments—known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs)—are fully implemented, emissions would only be reduced by 5% to 8% by 2030 and by 11% to 15% by 2035, compared to 2025 levels.
目前的轨迹远未达到这一要求。即使假设各国政府做出的承诺（即“国家自主贡献”，NDCs）得到全面落实，与2025年水平相比，到2030年排放量仅能减少5%至8%，到2035年仅能减少11%至15%。
The recommended efforts are “close to 6 per cent every single year until 2035,” declares the UN Secretary General.
联合国秘书长宣布，建议的努力目标是“从现在起到2035年，每年减少近6%”。
The UN Chief outlined the levers for action available to humanity:
联合国秘书长概述了人类可采取的行动杠杆：
“The emissions gap is now a leadership gap. And the world is running out of time and excuses to close it.
“排放差距现在已演变为领导力差距。世界在弥合这一差距方面已时日无多，也不再有任何借口。
Governments must go much further and faster. Accelerate clean energy and electrification across every sector.
各国政府必须采取更深入、更迅速的行动。在各行各业加速清洁能源转型和电气化进程。
Adopt credible roadmaps to transition away from fossil fuels – with clear timelines and protection for affected workers and communities.
制定可信的路线图以摆脱化石燃料，明确时间表，并为受影响的工人和社区提供保障。
Invest in grids and storage. Improve energy efficiency. Cut methane emissions. Halt and reverse deforestation.”
投资电网和储能设施。提高能源效率。削减甲烷排放。制止并扭转森林砍伐。”
The report indicates that by 2035, the capacity of renewable energy sources must triple compared to 2025 levels. Furthermore, the phase-out of fossil fuels requires reducing the respective shares of coal, oil, and gas in energy production by 55%, 15%, and 5% by 2035.
报告指出，到2035年，可再生能源装机容量必须比2025年水平增加两倍。此外，淘汰化石燃料要求到2035年将煤炭、石油和天然气在能源生产中的份额分别降低55%、15%和5%。
By 2040, reductions of at least 75%, 30%, and 35% would be necessary.
到2040年，这些份额必须分别至少减少75%、30%和35%。
Large-scale operations to remove CO2 from the atmosphere will also be imperative to return to the 1.5°C threshold—or even lower.
为了回归到1.5°C甚至更低的阈值，大规模从大气中清除二氧化碳的行动也将至关重要。
UNEP estimates that 320 gigatons of CO2 —equivalent to eight times the emissions recorded in 2024— must be removed from the atmosphere by the end of the century. This implies biological solutions, such as reforestation, as well as technological approaches involving the compression, mineralisation, and underground storage of CO2.
联合国环境规划署估计，到本世纪末，必须从大气中清除320吉吨的二氧化碳，这相当于2024年记录排放量的八倍。这意味着需要采取生物解决方案（如植树造林），以及涉及二氧化碳压缩、矿化和地下封存的技术手段。
Accelerating the momentum is still possible, according to UNEP, given the significant progress made since 2015.
据联合国环境规划署称，鉴于2015年以来取得的重大进展，加快这一势头仍然是可能的。
“Since the adoption of the Paris Agreement, global renewable electricity capacity has grown three times faster than anticipated, with solar PV build-out increasing seven times faster”, states UNEP Chief Inger Andersen.
联合国环境规划署署长英格·安德森（Inger Andersen）表示：“自《巴黎协定》通过以来，全球可再生电力装机容量的增长速度比预期快了三倍，其中太阳能光伏的建设速度快了七倍。”
“Total energy supply from coal and oil has grown slower than projected. Climate policies have delivered real emission reductions across the world and across sectors. Several G20 members have shown sustained emission reductions, and some are aligning policies with net-zero pledges.”
“来自煤炭和石油的总能源供应增长速度慢于预期。气候政策已在全球和各行业实现了实际的减排。一些二十国集团（G20）成员国已表现出持续的减排成果，部分国家正在将政策与净零排放承诺保持一致。”
The progress made remains insufficient, particularly with regard to fossil fuels and deforestation.
所取得的进展仍然不足，特别是在化石燃料和森林砍伐方面。
Because the climate knows no borders, limiting any overshoot of 1.5°C as much as possible requires action across the entire economy and on a global scale.
由于气候没有国界，尽可能限制任何超过1.5°C的升温，需要全经济范围和全球规模的共同行动。