‘It’s the President’s Fault’: The White House Blame Game Starts Early Ahead of the Midterms

Trump White House aides have started to cast about for a scapegoat to offer the president in the event of bad midterm election losses, as Republicans stare down brutal predictions in key House and Senate races, sources familiar with the matter say.

据知情人士透露，随着共和党人在关键的众议院和参议院竞选中面临严峻的预测，特朗普白宫的助手们已经开始寻找替罪羊，以便在期中选举失利时向总统交代。

Republican political operatives say privately that the real blame lies with Trump for starting the Iran war in an election year, causing higher prices across the board and prompting a nationwide voter backlash, the sources say. “Clearly it’s the president’s fault,” one operative tells Inner Loop.

消息人士称，共和党政治操盘手私下表示，真正的责任在于特朗普在选举年发动了伊朗战争，导致物价全面上涨，并引发了全国范围内的选民反弹。一位操盘手告诉《内环》（Inner Loop）：“显然这是总统的错。”

But Trump aides also know, for obvious reasons, they cannot say publicly or tell the president behind closed doors that his own policy decisions are at fault as they contemplate losing not just the House majority, but possibly the Senate.

但特朗普的助手们也清楚，出于显而易见的原因，当他们考虑不仅会失去众议院多数席位，甚至可能失去参议院时，他们无法公开或私下告诉总统，他自己的政策决定才是罪魁祸首。

The result has been an unusually early effort to find a scapegoat, and sources say eyes have fallen on deputy chief of staff and political strategist James Blair, who organized the Trump 2024 campaign’s turnout strategy and returned to the role for this midterm cycle.

结果就是一场异常早期的寻找替罪羊的行动，消息人士称，目光已经落在了副幕僚长兼政治策略师詹姆斯·布莱尔（James Blair）身上，他曾组织了特朗普2024年的竞选投票策略，并在此次期中选举周期中重返该职位。

Blair’s efforts included a marquee plan for certain states to redraw congressional maps early, which looked likely—though not certain—to yield favorable House seats for Republicans, so long as the coalition that Trump turned out in 2024 came out to support Republicans in 2026.

布莱尔的工作包括一项针对特定州提前重划国会选区的重点计划，只要特朗普在2024年动员的联盟能在2026年出来支持共和党，该计划看起来很有可能（尽管并非确定）为共和党带来有利的众议院席位。

Even accounting for the Iran war, the redistricting gambit was supposed to bring roughly 10 to 15 pickups for Republicans in the House. After Virginia’s top court blocked Democrats from redrawing maps to keep pace in the redistricting battle, wrote on X: “Lord grant me humility.”

即使考虑到伊朗战争的影响，这次选区重划的策略本应为共和党在众议院带来大约10到15个席位的增长。在弗吉尼亚州最高法院阻止民主党人重划选区以在选区重划之争中保持同步后，（布莱尔）在X上写道：“主啊，赐予我谦卑。”

But in a remarkable backfire five months later, election forecasters have found that some of the redistricted seats now favor Democrats.

然而五个月后，情况出现了惊人的反转，选举预测机构发现，一些重划后的选区现在反而对民主党有利。

The redrawn map for Florida’s 25th congressional district just south of Fort Lauderdale, for instance, is now characterized as “Lean Democrat,” and the outlook is so bad that the Congressional Leadership Fund, the House Republican–aligned group, has pulled money out of the race.

例如，佛罗里达州劳德代尔堡以南的第25国会选区的重划地图现在被定性为“倾向民主党”，前景非常糟糕，以至于与众议院共和党结盟的“国会领导基金”（Congressional Leadership Fund）已经撤出了该选区的资金。

Maps that were drawn for Republicans in ruby-red Texas are suddenly also vulnerable, even in seats where the party has incumbents. In Texas’ 15th congressional district, GOP candidate Monica De La Cruz’s race is now rated a “tossup” by the Cook Political Report.

在共和党铁票仓德克萨斯州为共和党绘制的地图也突然变得脆弱，即使是在该党拥有现任议员的选区也是如此。在德克萨斯州第15国会选区，共和党候选人莫妮卡·德拉克鲁兹（Monica De La Cruz）的选情现在被《库克政治报告》（Cook Political Report）评为“胜负难料”。

Blair’s allies inside and outside the West Wing say the criticism directed at him is grossly unfair because he could not have foreseen the effects of the Iran war and scandals involving Trump officials undoing his planning.

布莱尔在白宫内外的盟友表示，针对他的批评极其不公平，因为他不可能预见到伊朗战争的影响以及涉及特朗普官员的丑闻会破坏他的计划。

Blair is also viewed as retaining the confidence of Trump and the White House chief of staff Susie Wiles, and he traveled on Air Force One to two rallies within the past week, suggesting any blame that ultimately comes his way could be just symbolic.

布莱尔也被认为仍然受到特朗普和白宫幕僚长苏西·怀尔斯（Susie Wiles）的信任，他在过去一周内曾两次乘坐“空军一号”参加集会，这表明他最终承担的任何指责可能只是象征性的。

After all, when Blair left the White House earlier this year to run Trump’s midterm strategy from the outside, the president announced the move as only temporary and said that Blair would return after the election.

毕竟，当布莱尔今年早些时候离开白宫从外部负责特朗普的期中选举策略时，总统宣布此举只是暂时的，并表示布莱尔将在选举后回归。

Responding to the reporting in this story, Blair said in a statement, “the President, our partners in the House and Senate, and I remain focused on winning in November. All Republicans should be spending themselves equally in our worthy cause.”

针对本篇报道，布莱尔在一份声明中表示：“总统、我们在众议院和参议院的伙伴以及我本人仍然专注于在11月获胜。所有共和党人都应该为我们这项崇高的事业全力以赴。”

“The anonymous ‘sources’ peddling this nonsense are self-serving opportunists focused on themselves. We’re focused on the President and the American people,” White House spokesperson Danielle Alvarez added in a statement.

白宫发言人丹妮尔·阿尔瓦雷斯（Danielle Alvarez）在一份声明中补充说：“那些兜售这种废话的匿名‘消息人士’是只顾自己的自私投机者。我们专注于总统和美国人民。”

As for Wiles herself, despite reporting that she has been under fire, sources inside Trump’s orbit are adamant that if Wiles leaves after the midterms, it will be purely of her own volition.

至于怀尔斯本人，尽管有报道称她受到了抨击，但特朗普圈内的消息人士坚称，如果怀尔斯在期中选举后离开，那将完全是她自愿的。

Trump aides acknowledge that much of the palace intrigue scapegoating is preemptive. Expectations are so low that if Republicans take some wins—like holding on to the Senate—Blair will be “seen as a savior,” one of the sources added.

特朗普的助手们承认，大部分关于寻找替罪羊的宫廷阴谋都是先发制人的。其中一位消息人士补充说，目前的预期非常低，如果共和党能取得一些胜利——比如保住参议院——布莱尔将被“视为救世主”。

But they also say that in many ways Blair has perhaps made it too easy for them to single him out. He explicitly owned the House midterm strategy, and now he may be walked to the gallows with that same rope.

但他们也表示，在许多方面，布莱尔可能让他们太容易将其单独挑出来作为目标了。他明确主导了众议院的期中选举策略，而现在他可能会被同一根绳子送上绞刑架。

This is an edition of Hugo Lowell’s Inner Loop newsletter. Read previous newsletters here.

这是雨果·洛厄尔（Hugo Lowell）的《内环》通讯的一期。点击此处阅读往期通讯。