Hegseth warns prediction market bets warp military judgment, endanger troops

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth issued a memo warning military personnel against using nonpublic information to make bets on prediction markets, saying the wagers could give important clues to enemy countries. “Do Not Compromise Military Operations for Personal Financial Gain,” said the subject line of an October 20 memo published yesterday by CBS News. Hegseth’s memo was sent to senior Pentagon leadership, Combatant Command leaders, and Defense Department field activity directors.

国防部长皮特·海格塞斯（Pete Hegseth）发布了一份备忘录，警告军事人员不要利用非公开信息在预测市场上进行投注，称这些赌注可能会向敌对国家提供重要线索。据哥伦比亚广播公司新闻网（CBS News）昨日公布的一份10月20日的备忘录显示，其主题行写道：“切勿为个人经济利益而损害军事行动”。海格塞斯的这份备忘录被发送给了五角大楼的高层领导、作战司令部领导人以及国防部各部门主管。

Hegseth wrote: Our enemies watch movements in these markets. When an American Service member, intelligence professional, or other Department civilian engages in a financial transaction on a military outcome, they create a signal. That signal can be aggregated, correlated, and exploited by hostile foreign intelligence services to anticipate our movements, targets, and timing. The lives of our Service members often depend on the enemy not knowing what is coming. The men and women who carry our flag into harm’s way deserve a Force that protects them—not one that exposes them to the enemy for personal gain.

海格塞斯写道：我们的敌人正在观察这些市场的动向。当美国军人、情报专业人员或其他国防部文职人员就军事结果进行金融交易时，他们就产生了一个信号。这个信号可能会被敌对的外国情报机构收集、关联并加以利用，从而预判我们的行动、目标和时机。我们军人的生命往往取决于敌人是否对即将发生的事情一无所知。那些冒着生命危险为我们国家效力的人们，理应得到一支保护他们的武装力量，而不是一支为了个人利益而将他们暴露给敌人的队伍。

In April, a US Army soldier was arrested and charged with using confidential information to make $410,000 in Polymarket bets on the timing of the military’s capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. An August report by the Anti-Corruption Data Collective said the group found 152 suspicious wallets that placed longshot bets on military and defense markets and won a combined $8 million.

今年4月，一名美国陆军士兵被捕并被指控利用机密信息在Polymarket上进行投注，押注美军抓捕委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗（Nicolás Maduro）的时间，获利41万美元。反腐败数据联盟（Anti-Corruption Data Collective）在8月的一份报告中称，该组织发现了152个可疑钱包，这些钱包在军事和国防市场上进行了冷门投注，总共赢得了800万美元。

Betting can warp judgment, Hegseth says Hegseth’s memo said the prohibition applies to “all financial platforms,” including traditional betting services and prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi. Defense Department personnel may not make any financial transaction informed by nonpublic information, regardless of whether that information is classified or unclassified, Hegseth wrote. “All Department of War personnel are prohibited from engaging in financial transactions using nonpublic information, either directly or indirectly through a third party… Violations may result in administrative, disciplinary, and, where appropriate, criminal action under the Uniform Code of Military Justice and/or applicable federal law,” Hegseth wrote.

海格塞斯称，投注会扭曲判断力。海格塞斯的备忘录指出，该禁令适用于“所有金融平台”，包括传统的博彩服务以及Polymarket和Kalshi等预测市场。海格塞斯写道，国防部人员不得利用非公开信息进行任何金融交易，无论该信息是否属于机密。“所有战争部人员均被禁止直接或通过第三方间接利用非公开信息进行金融交易……违规者可能会根据《统一军事司法法典》和/或适用的联邦法律受到行政、纪律处分，并在适当情况下受到刑事起诉，”海格塞斯写道。

The memo said betting on military matters related to a person’s job can warp one’s judgment. “Beyond operational security, financial stakes can warp judgment,” he wrote. “A logistician with money riding on a strike date has an interest in that date. An analyst with a position on an outcome has an interest in that outcome.” Kalshi and Polymarket both prohibit insider trading. But criminal charges of the sort described by Hegseth are sure to be a bigger deterrent than being banned from the Kalshi or Polymarket platforms.

备忘录称，就与个人工作相关的军事事务进行投注可能会扭曲一个人的判断力。他写道：“除了作战安全之外，经济利益也会扭曲判断力。一名在打击日期上投入了资金的后勤人员会对该日期产生利益诉求。一名在某种结果上持有头寸的分析师会对该结果产生利益诉求。”Kalshi和Polymarket都禁止内幕交易。但海格塞斯所描述的那种刑事指控，肯定比被禁止使用Kalshi或Polymarket平台具有更大的威慑力。

White House issued warning after suspicious bets This was not the first warning issued internally by the Trump administration, The Associated Press wrote yesterday. “A group of new accounts on Polymarket made highly specific, well-timed bets on whether the US and Iran would reach a ceasefire just before President Donald Trump announced it in April, resulting in hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits for the new customers,” the AP wrote. “The White House warned staff against using private information to trade on prediction markets the same day the report came out.”

白宫在出现可疑投注后发出警告。美联社昨日报道称，这并非特朗普政府内部发出的首次警告。美联社写道：“在唐纳德·特朗普总统于4月宣布美伊达成停火协议之前，Polymarket上的一批新账户就美伊是否会达成停火进行了非常具体且时机精准的投注，为这些新客户带来了数十万美元的利润。报告发布当天，白宫就警告员工不要利用私人信息在预测市场上进行交易。”

In another incident, a Trump teleprompter aide reportedly made $100,000 on Kalshi by betting on what Trump would say in prepared remarks. Prediction markets have flourished under the Trump administration’s light-touch approach to regulation. The Trump administration is also trying to stop state governments from regulating the markets, arguing that state laws are preempted by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s exclusive jurisdiction. Courts have reached different conclusions, and state governments want the Supreme Court to uphold their right to impose restrictions on prediction-market gambling.

在另一起事件中，据报道，一名特朗普的提词器助手通过押注特朗普在准备好的演讲稿中会说什么，在Kalshi上赚取了10万美元。在特朗普政府宽松的监管方针下，预测市场蓬勃发展。特朗普政府还试图阻止州政府监管这些市场，理由是州法律被商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）的专属管辖权所取代。法院对此得出了不同的结论，而州政府希望最高法院能够支持他们对预测市场博彩实施限制的权利。