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Elon Musk’s dangerous grip on outer space

As SpaceX throttles Ukraine’s Starshield, experts warn that Elon Musk’s de facto monopoly over launch and satellite tech poses a major threat to global security.

随着 SpaceX 对乌克兰的“星盾”（Starshield）服务进行限速，专家们警告称，埃隆·马斯克在发射和卫星技术领域事实上形成的垄断，对全球安全构成了重大威胁。

Last week, Starshield — the version of SpaceX’s Starlink used by the Ukrainian military — was throttled to block terminals traveling above certain speeds from accessing the service. The Ukrainian army’s interceptors, which counter Russian drones carrying bombs, suddenly stopped working at high speeds, making it easier for Russia to attack the country’s energy infrastructure and leading to a reported two deaths and at least 17 injuries.

上周，乌克兰军方使用的 SpaceX “星链”版本——“星盾”——遭到限速，导致移动速度超过一定阈值的终端无法访问该服务。乌克兰军队用于拦截俄罗斯载弹无人机的拦截器在高速度下突然停止工作，这使得俄罗斯更容易攻击该国的能源基础设施，据报道造成了两人死亡，至少 17 人受伤。

The Ukrainian military reported receiving no advance warning about the Starshield speed restriction. But Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said it was a direct message from the US amid rising tensions between himself and President Donald Trump. The abrupt nature of the cutoff and its potentially dangerous military and humanitarian ramifications led to widespread public outcry focused both on Trump for pulling the rug out from under Ukraine and on SpaceX CEO Elon Musk for enabling him.

乌克兰军方表示，他们没有收到关于“星盾”限速的任何提前警告。但乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基表示，在自己与唐纳德·特朗普总统之间紧张局势加剧之际，这是来自美国的一个直接信号。这种突如其来的切断及其潜在的危险军事和人道主义后果，引发了广泛的公众抗议，矛头既指向了让乌克兰陷入困境的特朗普，也指向了为其提供支持的 SpaceX 首席执行官埃隆·马斯克。

Since then Musk and Trump have traded denials back and forth. Musk first said that SpaceX has no control over Starshield and decisions are made by the US military, while the White House denied taking action. Then reports emerged that Musk was the one who suggested the slowdown tactic to Trump, who then accepted it, followed by a further report that Musk himself unilaterally ordered the restrictions.

此后，马斯克和特朗普互相否认。马斯克最初表示，SpaceX 对“星盾”没有控制权，决策是由美国军方做出的，而白宫则否认采取了行动。随后有报道称，是马斯克向特朗普建议了这种减速策略，特朗普予以采纳，紧接着又有报道称，是马斯克本人单方面下令实施了这些限制。

The finger-pointing is of little interest to Ukrainians, who are focused on trying to defend their country from a brutal ongoing Russian invasion. Zelenskyy is well aware that he is being used as a scapegoat as Trump flails around attempting to blame Ukraine for the rising oil prices caused by his unpopular war with Iran.

这种相互指责对乌克兰人来说毫无意义，他们正专注于努力保卫自己的国家，抵御俄罗斯持续不断的残酷入侵。泽连斯基非常清楚，他正被当作替罪羊，因为特朗普正试图将因其与伊朗不得人心的战争而导致的油价上涨归咎于乌克兰。

But Ukraine needs to play nice to some extent, given how dependent it is on US technologies like Starlink/Starshield that enable it to mount a defense against Russian attacks. Starlink access has been deliberately restricted there before, including in 2022, when coverage was not extended to cover a counterattack operation in Crimea. If Musk decided to pull the plug completely, the effect on Ukraine could be devastating.

但乌克兰在一定程度上需要保持妥协，因为它非常依赖星链/星盾等美国技术，这些技术使其能够组织对俄罗斯袭击的防御。星链的访问权限此前曾被刻意限制，包括在 2022 年，当时覆盖范围未扩展至克里米亚的反击行动。如果马斯克决定彻底切断服务，对乌克兰的影响可能是毁灭性的。

This amount of geopolitical power being wielded by an unelected tech oligarch is the direct result of consolidating so much of the space industry into just one company, and one man’s hands. And the scope of Musk’s control goes well beyond Ukraine. From the defense of nations to the ability of NASA to launch its astronauts into space, SpaceX has been irreplaceable — and that means Musk has the space industry in his grip.

这种由未经选举产生的科技寡头所掌握的地缘政治权力，是将如此多的航天工业整合到一家公司、一个人手中的直接结果。而且马斯克的控制范围远不止乌克兰。从国家防御到美国国家航空航天局（NASA）将宇航员送入太空的能力，SpaceX 一直是不可替代的——这意味着马斯克掌控着整个航天工业。

A de facto monopoly

事实上的垄断

SpaceX’s recent IPO positions it as one of the most valuable companies in the world. And while the company has generated most of its recent revenue from its Starlink service, it made its name as a company that launches rockets into space.

SpaceX 最近的首次公开募股（IPO）使其成为世界上最有价值的公司之一。虽然该公司最近的大部分收入来自其星链服务，但它最初是以一家将火箭送入太空的公司而闻名的。

SpaceX’s Falcon 9 is the most successful rocket in history, and its “rideshare” program, which lets small satellite operators share space on a rocket, has dropped the price of launches to historic lows. This has helped organizations from small startups to university research departments launch their own satellites and has been hailed as a democratizing force in the space industry.

SpaceX 的“猎鹰 9 号”是历史上最成功的火箭，其“拼车”计划允许小型卫星运营商共享火箭空间，这已将发射价格降至历史最低水平。这帮助了从小型初创公司到大学研究部门的各类组织发射自己的卫星，并被誉为航天工业中的一种民主化力量。

However, that success has come at a cost, which is that SpaceX now holds all the cards when it comes to access to space. “For all intents and purposes, SpaceX has a monopoly on launch right now,” said Wendy Whitman Cobb of the School of Advanced Air and Space Studies at Maxwell Air Force Base, Alabama. “There are competitors out there,” she said, such as United Launch Alliance, Blue Origin, and Rocket Lab, “but nobody comes even close to SpaceX in terms of frequency, mass, scale, cost. I mean, they’ve got everything in the bag.”

然而，这种成功是有代价的，那就是在进入太空方面，SpaceX 现在掌握了所有主动权。“实际上，SpaceX 目前在发射领域拥有垄断地位，”阿拉巴马州麦克斯韦空军基地高级航空航天研究学院的温迪·惠特曼·科布（Wendy Whitman Cobb）说。“虽然有竞争对手，”她说，比如联合发射联盟（ULA）、蓝色起源（Blue Origin）和火箭实验室（Rocket Lab），“但在频率、质量、规模和成本方面，没有人能接近 SpaceX。我的意思是，他们包揽了一切。”

Space economist Oğuz Karasu of the Oxford Space Initiative concurred. SpaceX doesn’t have a monopoly on launch in the legal sense, he said, but in practical terms it does. And that gives the company tremendous pull over the industry as a whole. “The rocket launch industry is around 8 percent of the entire [space] industry,” Karasu said, “but without that 8 percent, you can’t have the rest of it.”

牛津空间倡议（Oxford Space Initiative）的太空经济学家奥古兹·卡拉苏（Oğuz Karasu）对此表示赞同。他说，SpaceX 在法律意义上并没有垄断发射，但在实际操作中确实如此。这使得该公司对整个行业拥有巨大的影响力。“火箭发射行业约占整个[航天]行业的 8%，”卡拉苏说，“但如果没有这 8%，你就无法拥有其余的部分。”

The gatekeeper for space

太空的守门人

SpaceX, which didn’t respond to a request for comment, has a tremendous advantage in providing space-based services like satellite internet. The company has been able to build out its network of over 10,000 Starlink satellites currently in low Earth orbit by launching them cheaply and efficiently using its Falcon 9 rockets.

SpaceX 没有回应置评请求，该公司在提供卫星互联网等天基服务方面拥有巨大优势。通过使用“猎鹰 9 号”火箭廉价且高效地进行发射，该公司已经能够建立起目前在近地轨道上运行的超过 10,000 颗星链卫星的网络。

“This is almost like an antitrust issue,” said defense expert Andrew Reddie of the University of California, Berkeley. “The issue is that SpaceX launches support Starlink constellations that are owned by SpaceX. There is no incentive for a SpaceX launch to be used to provide constellations for other countries that would compete.”

“这几乎是一个反垄断问题，”加州大学伯克利分校的国防专家安德鲁·雷迪（Andrew Reddie）说。“问题在于，SpaceX 的发射支持的是 SpaceX 拥有的星链星座。SpaceX 没有动力去利用其发射能力为其他可能构成竞争的国家提供星座服务。”

Interestingly, SpaceX has previously launched Amazon Kuiper (now Leo) satellites on a handful of missions — arguably as a preemptive defense against antitrust complaints. Or perhaps SpaceX is simply so confident in its position that it can afford to be magnanimous (or to flex a little on its rival) by launching a few competitor satellites.

有趣的是，SpaceX 此前曾在少数几次任务中发射过亚马逊的柯伊伯（现为 Leo）卫星——这可以说是为了先发制人地防御反垄断投诉。又或许，SpaceX 仅仅是对自己的地位如此自信，以至于它有能力通过发射几颗竞争对手的卫星来表现得大度（或者向竞争对手展示一下实力）。

The downside of a monopoly, at least for the customer, is that eventually prices rise. SpaceX doesn’t share prices for its launches publicly, but both Whitman Cobb and Karasu say they’ve heard complaints that Falcon 9 launches are getting more expensive, particularly for low Earth orbit deployments. And the Starlink service has see

垄断的弊端，至少对客户而言，是价格最终会上涨。SpaceX 不会公开其发射价格，但惠特曼·科布和卡拉苏都表示，他们听到过关于“猎鹰 9 号”发射费用越来越贵的抱怨，特别是在近地轨道部署方面。而星链服务也已经……