Anthropic Flags Gas Supply as One of Its Biggest Near-Term Risks
Anthropic Flags Gas Supply as One of Its Biggest Near-Term Risks
Data centers’ reliance on private natural gas plants is a key near-term risk to Anthropic. In the company’s IPO filing on Monday, it warned that the data center gas buildout could drive prices higher in some regions, affecting its AI ambitions and other data center operators around the country.
数据中心对私营天然气发电厂的依赖是 Anthropic 面临的一个关键近期风险。该公司在周一提交的首次公开募股（IPO）文件中警告称，数据中心天然气设施的扩建可能会推高某些地区的能源价格，从而影响其人工智能雄心以及全国各地的其他数据中心运营商。
As America’s data center boom keeps growing, the facilities are set to consume a staggering amount of natural gas, with many companies opting to build their own plants rather than wait years for grid connection. Energy analyst company Cleanview estimates behind-the-meter gas projects in development as of October 2026 at 110 gigawatts, up from just 20 gigawatts in July 2025.
随着美国数据中心热潮的持续增长，这些设施预计将消耗惊人的天然气量，许多公司选择自行建造发电厂，而不是等待数年以接入电网。能源分析公司 Cleanview 估计，截至 2026 年 10 月，正在开发中的“表后”（behind-the-meter）天然气项目规模将达到 110 吉瓦，而 2025 年 7 月仅为 20 吉瓦。
Competition from other natural-gas-fired data centers could leave Anthropic exposed to “fuel price volatility and supply disruptions that are outside of [its] control,” the company wrote in its IPO filing, and “could drive up the price of natural gas in such areas and may adversely affect [its] ability to contract for firm fuel supply.”
Anthropic 在 IPO 文件中写道，来自其他燃气数据中心的竞争可能会使其面临“其无法控制的燃料价格波动和供应中断”，并“可能推高这些地区的天然气价格，并可能对其签订固定燃料供应合同的能力产生不利影响”。
The surge in demand for gas comes on top of an already tight market for natural gas. US export terminals are sending more gas abroad for a variety of reasons, including geopolitical conflicts and federal support for exports. Export demand is expected to double over the next decade.
天然气需求的激增发生在一个本已紧张的市场之上。由于地缘政治冲突和联邦政府对出口的支持等多种原因，美国出口终端正在向海外输送更多的天然气。预计未来十年出口需求将翻一番。
Still, data centers could add a hefty chunk of demand, even if just some of what’s in the pipeline is built. BloombergNEF estimates that grid-connected data centers alone could add an additional 15 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas demand by 2035, a 15 percent increase in overall demand. Adding on a conservative estimate of onsite gas capacity in the pipeline would add another 3 billion cubic feet per day by the next decade.
尽管如此，即使只有部分在建项目得以完成，数据中心仍可能增加巨大的需求。彭博新能源财经（BloombergNEF）估计，仅并网数据中心到 2035 年就可能每天额外增加 150 亿立方英尺的天然气需求，使总需求增加 15%。如果加上对在建现场天然气产能的保守估计，到下一个十年，每天还将增加 30 亿立方英尺的需求。
Anthropic has traditionally relied on renting compute from major cloud service providers. Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and SpaceX are specifically named in the IPO. (Anthropic is renting server space from the latter’s Colossus data centers in Memphis, Tennessee, which is facing a lawsuit for relying on unpermitted gas turbines.)
Anthropic 传统上依赖于租用主要云服务提供商的计算资源。亚马逊、谷歌、微软和 SpaceX 在 IPO 文件中被明确提及。（Anthropic 正在租用后者位于田纳西州孟菲斯的 Colossus 数据中心的服务器空间，该中心因依赖未经许可的燃气轮机而面临诉讼。）
But the company has moved in recent months to directly lease and develop data centers, in a bid to lessen its reliance on other tech giants and more directly control its own data centers. In the IPO, it singles out its $50 billion partnership with Fluidstack, announced last year, which “provides data center development and operations services” for the company. It has announced data center sites in Texas and New York.
但该公司近几个月来已转向直接租赁和开发数据中心，旨在减少对其他科技巨头的依赖，并更直接地控制自己的数据中心。在 IPO 文件中，它特别提到了去年宣布的与 Fluidstack 价值 500 亿美元的合作伙伴关系，该公司为 Anthropic “提供数据中心开发和运营服务”。它已宣布在德克萨斯州和纽约州选址建设数据中心。
Doing so, though, exposes it to more risks, including the rises in natural gas prices. The company has also been tied to developing data centers with major onsite gas projects in states as spread out as Louisiana, Texas, and West Virginia. The latter could eventually be among the largest gas plants in the US, according to developer Nscale’s own IPO filing.
然而，这样做使其面临更多风险，包括天然气价格上涨。该公司还被发现在路易斯安那州、德克萨斯州和西弗吉尼亚州等分散的州开发带有大型现场天然气项目的数据中心。根据开发商 Nscale 自己的 IPO 文件，后者最终可能成为美国最大的天然气发电厂之一。
The geographical dispersion of its data centers opens Anthropic up to regional gas supply shocks and markets. That’s particularly true in the Southeast, where projects will have to compete with LNG exports.
数据中心的地理分散使 Anthropic 容易受到区域性天然气供应冲击和市场波动的影响。在东南部地区尤其如此，那里的项目将不得不与液化天然气（LNG）出口竞争。
“It wouldn’t be surprising if you start to see gas start to get more expensive in Louisiana and Texas, where all the LNG projects are concentrated,” says Enrique Gonzalez, BNEF’s head of gas research for the Americas.
彭博新能源财经美洲天然气研究主管恩里克·冈萨雷斯（Enrique Gonzalez）表示：“如果你开始看到路易斯安那州和德克萨斯州（所有液化天然气项目集中的地方）的天然气价格开始上涨，那也就不足为奇了。”
Texas is also the national hot spot for behind-the-meter data center development, putting multiple developers in competition for the same, potentially limited gas supply. Anthropic acknowledges this risk in its IPO filing, writing that “we expect increased competition among users for the same natural gas supply and pipeline capacity in those areas. This competition could drive up the price of natural gas in such areas and may adversely affect our ability to contract for firm fuel supply.”
德克萨斯州也是全国“表后”数据中心开发的热点地区，这使得多家开发商竞相争夺同样可能有限的天然气供应。Anthropic 在其 IPO 文件中承认了这一风险，写道：“我们预计在这些地区，用户对相同天然气供应和管道容量的竞争将会加剧。这种竞争可能会推高这些地区的天然气价格，并可能对我们签订固定燃料供应合同的能力产生不利影响。”
Any strain on gas supply could have knock-on prices for home energy bills. Gonzalez thinks that natural gas producers learned their lesson from the energy crisis of 2022, when high gas prices caused production to increase, in turn knocking down prices. While markets are unlikely to be that extreme in the coming years, “if hub prices rise, there’s a chance—unless you have legislation—that it goes to consumers,” he says.
天然气供应的任何紧张都可能对家庭能源账单产生连锁反应。冈萨雷斯认为，天然气生产商从 2022 年的能源危机中吸取了教训，当时高昂的天然气价格导致产量增加，进而压低了价格。虽然未来几年市场不太可能出现那种极端情况，但他表示：“如果枢纽价格上涨，除非有立法干预，否则很有可能会转嫁给消费者。”
One solution for this is, of course, to look at renewables, which also have the added climate benefit of being carbon-free. But Anthropic mentions them once in its IPO filing, and only to dismiss them. “Newer sources of generation, such as solar, wind, battery storage, nuclear, and geothermal power, may not be available in the quantities or on the timelines we require, or may be available only at higher cost,” the prospectus states.
解决这个问题的一个办法当然是转向可再生能源，它还具有零碳排放的额外气候效益。但 Anthropic 在其 IPO 文件中只提到了一次，而且只是为了否定它们。招股说明书称：“较新的发电来源，如太阳能、风能、电池储能、核能和地热能，可能无法以我们要求的数量或时间表提供，或者可能只能以更高的成本获得。”