Anthropic Says It Will Revolutionize Biology—Some Day

AI giant Anthropic and CEO Dario Amodei have repeatedly claimed that the company’s models will revolutionize biology and drug discovery. But in its IPO filing Monday, Anthropic struck a humbler note, acknowledging its lack of experience in physical experimentation and the potential pitfalls of drug development. Wherever it’s going, it seems, it will take some time to get there.

人工智能巨头 Anthropic 及其首席执行官达里奥·阿莫代（Dario Amodei）曾多次声称，该公司的模型将彻底改变生物学和药物研发领域。然而，在周一提交的首次公开募股（IPO）文件中，Anthropic 的态度变得更加谦逊，承认其在物理实验方面缺乏经验，并指出了药物开发中潜在的陷阱。无论其目标何在，看来都需要一些时间才能实现。

Two years ago, Amodei wrote that he was “open” to the idea that AI systems could produce a thousand years of progress in biology in just five to 10 years. In August, he said on X that “Anthropic is ramping up its efforts very quickly in biology and medicine.” In the same post, he predicted that AI will make it possible to cure most human diseases in the next five to 10 years and promised a “deluge of AI-accelerated drugs.” The company also promoted the discovery of a “Crispr-like” enzyme by Claude in September.

两年前，阿莫代曾写道，他“乐于接受”这样一种观点，即人工智能系统可以在短短 5 到 10 年内实现生物学领域一千年的进步。今年 8 月，他在 X（原推特）上表示：“Anthropic 正在迅速加大在生物学和医学领域的投入。”在同一篇帖子中，他预测人工智能将在未来 5 到 10 年内使治愈大多数人类疾病成为可能，并承诺将迎来“人工智能加速药物的井喷”。该公司还在 9 月份宣传了 Claude 对一种“类似 Crispr”酶的发现。

While the new IPO filing still touts AI’s ability to “profoundly accelerate the rate of progress in biology and medicine” and compress “decades of scientific progress into years,” it’s reserved about how it will turn the potential into the actual.

尽管这份新的 IPO 文件仍然吹捧人工智能有能力“深刻地加速生物学和医学的进步速度”，并将“数十年的科学进步压缩到几年内”，但对于如何将这种潜力转化为现实，文件表现得十分谨慎。

The company says that its teams “need first-hand experience doing scientific research and drug discovery” and that its life sciences activities will require it “to engage in activities outside our historical experience as a software and research organization.” That includes handling potentially hazardous materials, operating laboratory equipment, and complying with a bevy of regulations.

该公司表示，其团队“需要进行科学研究和药物发现的第一手经验”，并且其生命科学活动将要求它“从事超出我们作为软件和研究组织历史经验范围的活动”。这包括处理潜在的危险材料、操作实验室设备以及遵守一系列法规。

Anthropic also toned down its language about its enzyme discovery, saying it “might have the potential to be developed into a novel biotechnology tool, perhaps for gene editing.” (Italics added for emphasis.) Researchers previously told WIRED they were skeptical of the enzyme discovery’s value and utility, and one scientist who had been studying these exact enzymes became suspicious that Claude used his research. (The company said neither its model nor its molecular biology team would have had access to this material.)

Anthropic 还降低了对其酶发现的描述语调，称其“可能具有被开发成一种新型生物技术工具的潜力，或许可用于基因编辑”。（斜体为强调所加。）研究人员此前曾告诉《连线》（WIRED）杂志，他们对这一酶发现的价值和实用性持怀疑态度，一位一直在研究这些特定酶的科学家甚至怀疑 Claude 使用了他的研究成果。（该公司表示，其模型和分子生物学团队均无法接触到这些材料。）

The IPO filing indicates that Anthropic no longer sees itself solely as an outside provider of AI tools to the biotech industry; it sees biotech discovery as a core part of its business model. And like all biotech companies, it faces the long timeline of drug development. Any AI-assisted discoveries still have to be researched in a test tube, then in animals, and eventually in people. Even if AI could help sort out which new drugs or targets will work in humans versus those likely to be duds, it will still take years of testing to prove their safety and efficacy.

IPO 文件显示，Anthropic 不再仅仅将自己视为生物技术行业的外部人工智能工具提供商；它已将生物技术发现视为其商业模式的核心部分。像所有生物技术公司一样，它面临着药物开发漫长的周期。任何人工智能辅助的发现仍然必须在试管中、动物身上，最终在人体中进行研究。即使人工智能能够帮助筛选出哪些新药或靶点在人体中有效，哪些可能失败，仍需要多年的测试来证明其安全性和有效性。

Anthropic recognizes these challenges in its filing. “Any drug candidates or other discoveries resulting from these efforts would face the lengthy, costly, and uncertain development and regulatory pathways characteristic of the life sciences industry, and may never generate revenue,” the filing says. (For his part, Amodei made the case in his August X post for streamlining regulations for the coming wave of AI-generated drugs.)

Anthropic 在文件中承认了这些挑战。文件称：“由这些努力产生的任何候选药物或其他发现，都将面临生命科学行业特有的漫长、昂贵且不确定的开发和监管路径，并且可能永远无法产生收入。”（就阿莫代而言，他在 8 月份的 X 帖子中主张为即将到来的 AI 生成药物浪潮简化监管流程。）

US Securities and Exchange Commission filings are generally more cautious than statements made by companies or their executives, given the legal risks of overstating claims to would-be investors. And the IPO makes clear that the company believes its technology will drive revolutionary advancements.

鉴于向潜在投资者夸大声明存在法律风险，美国证券交易委员会的文件通常比公司或其高管发表的声明更为谨慎。而此次 IPO 也明确表明，该公司相信其技术将推动革命性的进步。

But as Anthropic pushes further into biological discovery, it will face the same conundrum as other biotech companies: proving their worth in trials that can’t be hastened simply by adding computers.

但随着 Anthropic 在生物发现领域不断深入，它将面临与其他生物技术公司相同的难题：在无法仅靠增加计算机算力来加速的试验中证明自身的价值。