This Is What the GOP’s Final Midterms Push Looks Like
This Is What the GOP’s Final Midterms Push Looks Like
Republicans are spending the final week ahead of the midterm elections defending historically red Senate seats that have suddenly become competitive, according to federal filings and sources familiar with the matter.
根据联邦备案文件和知情人士透露，共和党人正在中期选举前的最后一周，全力保卫那些突然变得竞争激烈的传统红州参议院席位。
A significant focus is now on four Senate races in Kansas, South Carolina, Nebraska, and even Mississippi, all traditionally red seats, in what’s an ominous development for Republicans in their effort to at least keep control of the upper chamber.
目前，人们的关注焦点集中在堪萨斯州、南卡罗来纳州、内布拉斯加州，甚至是密西西比州的四场参议院竞选上。这些席位历来是共和党的票仓，如今局势的发展对共和党试图保住参议院控制权的努力来说，是一个不祥的信号。
Trump operatives tell Inner Loop that they do not expect Democrats to win those Senate seats and that they have mainly directed GOP outside groups to spend there to help boost incumbents that only have a narrow lead.
特朗普的竞选团队成员告诉《Inner Loop》，他们并不认为民主党能赢得这些参议院席位，并表示他们主要是引导共和党的外部团体在这些地区投入资金，以帮助那些仅以微弱优势领先的现任议员。
But the operatives also concede that they are having to divert an increasing amount of resources to those states—states that president Donald Trump carried by double digits in 2024 and where Republicans never dreamed of having to spend tens of millions of dollars.
但这些竞选人员也承认，他们不得不将越来越多的资源转移到这些州——在2024年，唐纳德·特朗普总统曾以两位数的优势在这些州获胜，而共和党人此前从未想过需要在这些地方花费数千万美元。
In total, in the penultimate week of the campaign, the Senate Republican–aligned Senate Leadership Fund spent $14 million across those four states, according to a WIRED review of federal filings. The biggest spend has been in Kansas, where SLF has abruptly dumped more than $5 million.
根据《连线》杂志对联邦备案文件的审查，在竞选倒数第二周，与共和党参议院相关的“参议院领导基金”（SLF）在上述四个州总共花费了1400万美元。其中支出最大的是堪萨斯州，SLF在此突然投入了超过500万美元。
Trump operatives say Kansas has been a major headache since the start of October, when Trafalgar Group, a GOP pollster, found Democratic candidate Adam Hamilton one point ahead of incumbent GOP senator Roger Marshall.
特朗普的竞选团队表示，自10月初以来，堪萨斯州一直让他们头疼不已。当时，共和党民调机构Trafalgar Group发现，民主党候选人亚当·汉密尔顿（Adam Hamilton）以一个百分点的优势领先于现任共和党参议员罗杰·马歇尔（Roger Marshall）。
Marshall, a doctor, has had an unusually tough race following a slew of negative stories about how he pursued legal action against his patients with unpaid bills and how much time he spends in Florida. Some political operatives have also complained that he has not taken his race seriously, sources say.
身为医生的马歇尔经历了一场异常艰难的竞选，此前一系列负面报道披露了他对拖欠账单的患者采取法律行动，以及他在佛罗里达州花费了大量时间。据消息人士称，一些政治操盘手也抱怨他没有认真对待这场竞选。
But the last-minute spending is also coming in places like South Carolina, where SLF spent another roughly $5 million to help incumbent Darline Graham, who has struggled to galvanize Trump’s base despite having the president’s endorsement that propelled her to victory in the primary.
但这种临阵磨枪的支出也出现在南卡罗来纳州等地，SLF在此又花费了约500万美元来帮助现任议员达琳·格雷厄姆（Darline Graham）。尽管她拥有曾助其在初选中获胜的总统背书，但她一直难以动员特朗普的选民基础。
SLF also spent nearly $3 million in Nebraska to help Republican incumbent senator Pete Ricketts, who has been behind in some polls, and in Mississippi, the fund put just under $1 million toward Republican incumbent senator Cindy Hyde-Smith.
SLF还在内布拉斯加州花费了近300万美元，以帮助在一些民调中落后的共和党现任参议员皮特·里基茨（Pete Ricketts）；在密西西比州，该基金则为共和党现任参议员辛迪·海德-史密斯（Cindy Hyde-Smith）投入了不到100万美元。
The final sprint has highlighted the fraught predicament for Republicans, who are having to patch a seemingly ever-growing number of vulnerabilities.
最后的冲刺凸显了共和党人面临的严峻困境，他们不得不修补似乎越来越多且不断扩大的漏洞。
Trump’s campaign schedule has also added several deep-red states that are flashing warning signs, in addition to the expected campaign stops in battleground states. Last week, Trump went to Kansas and South Carolina. This week, he has been in Mississippi and will return to Kansas and South Carolina, as well.
除了在预期的摇摆州进行竞选活动外，特朗普的竞选日程还增加了几个亮起警示灯的深红州。上周，特朗普去了堪萨斯州和南卡罗来纳州。本周，他已前往密西西比州，并将再次回到堪萨斯州和南卡罗来纳州。
Still, several Trump operatives tell Inner Loop they have been encouraged by the fact that Democratic candidates lately have not expanded their leads in several key Senate races—a concern that has cropped up among some Senate Democratic leadership aides.
尽管如此，几位特朗普的竞选人员告诉《Inner Loop》，他们感到鼓舞的是，民主党候选人最近在几个关键的参议院竞选中并没有扩大领先优势——这已成为一些参议院民主党领导层助手担忧的问题。
Chief among their concerns is Michigan, the best GOP pickup opportunity. Many of the most viable paths to Democrats taking the Senate majority pass through the state, but Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed has suffered lingering issues with key voting blocs.
他们最担心的是密歇根州，这是共和党最有希望夺取的席位。民主党获得参议院多数席位的许多可行路径都经过该州，但民主党候选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德（Abdul El-Sayed）在关键选民群体中一直存在挥之不去的问题。
Black voters turned out in droves to help Barack Obama carry the state in 2008 and 2012, and the conventional wisdom in Washington is that El-Sayed will need similar support in order to keep the seat blue, one of the Democratic aides tells Inner Loop.
一位民主党助手告诉《Inner Loop》，黑人选民在2008年和2012年大举投票，帮助巴拉克·奥巴马赢得了该州。华盛顿的普遍共识是，埃尔-赛义德需要类似的支持才能保住这个民主党的席位。
But the trouble for El-Sayed, they add, has been the decades-long animosity between Arab and Black communities in Michigan, a divide that was further strained during the primary when supporters of his challenger, Haley Stevens, ran ads featuring Barack Obama praising her earlier work during the financial crisis.
但他们补充说，埃尔-赛义德的麻烦在于密歇根州阿拉伯裔和非裔社区之间长达数十年的敌意。在初选期间，这种分歧进一步加剧，当时他的竞争对手海莉·史蒂文斯（Haley Stevens）的支持者投放了广告，内容是巴拉克·奥巴马称赞她在金融危机期间的早期工作。
In an effort to rebuild at least part of that coalition, Obama held a joint rally with El-Sayed in Detroit over the weekend, which aides are hoping could persuade some voters. Operatives aren’t sure if it’ll be enough.
为了至少重建部分选民联盟，奥巴马周末在底特律与埃尔-赛义德举行了联合集会，助手们希望这能说服一些选民。但竞选人员并不确定这是否足够。
We will have to see how it pans out. See you next week, on the other side!
我们拭目以待结果如何。下周见！
This is an edition of Hugo Lowell’s Inner Loop newsletter. Read previous newsletters here.
这是雨果·洛厄尔（Hugo Lowell）的《Inner Loop》通讯的一期。点击此处阅读往期通讯。