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Rivian’s autonomy gamble faces its first real test

RJ Scaringe spent nearly half of Rivian’s earnings call hyping self-driving tech. But taking on Tesla’s FSD with custom chips and pricey lidar is an enormous gamble while the mass-market R2 is still scaling up.

在Rivian的财报电话会议上，RJ Scaringe花费了近一半的时间来宣传自动驾驶技术。然而，在面向大众市场的R2车型仍在扩大产能之际，利用定制芯片和昂贵的激光雷达去挑战特斯拉的FSD（全自动驾驶）是一场巨大的赌博。

During an hourlong earnings call last night, Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe spent less time talking about the production ramp of the all-important R2 SUV than he did hyping the company’s still-unproven autonomous vehicle ambitions.

在昨晚长达一小时的财报电话会议中，Rivian首席执行官RJ Scaringe谈论至关重要的R2 SUV产能爬坡的时间，甚至少于他为公司尚未得到验证的自动驾驶雄心所做的宣传。

But the company faces a crucial test later this year, when it rolls out its point-to-point hands-free driving feature — first to its own employees for testing and validation in 2026, and later to customers in 2027. Following that, Rivian says it will launch its first robotaxi vehicles in partnership with Uber in 2028. In short, the next two years will determine whether Rivian will succeed or fail in its high-stakes quest to become a full-stack autonomy player.

但该公司今年晚些时候将面临一次关键考验，届时它将推出点对点免提驾驶功能——首先于2026年提供给内部员工进行测试和验证，随后于2027年提供给客户。此后，Rivian表示将于2028年与Uber合作推出首批自动驾驶出租车。简而言之，未来两年将决定Rivian在成为全栈自动驾驶参与者这一高风险追求中是成功还是失败。

“We believe autonomy is a primary product differentiator, market share driver, and long-term value creator,” Derek Mulvey, VP for finance, said during the call.

“我们认为自动驾驶是主要的差异化产品、市场份额驱动力以及长期价值创造者，”财务副总裁Derek Mulvey在电话会议上表示。

Success is not guaranteed. Tesla has a huge head start with its Full Self-Driving (Supervised) in over 1.7 million active customer cars. But trying to match Tesla’s driver-assist features — while simultaneously designing its own silicon chips, buying pricey sensors, and paying for massive AI computing power — is a huge financial gamble, especially while Rivian is still struggling to build and sell its mass-market R2 vehicles at scale.

成功并非板上钉钉。特斯拉凭借其在超过170万辆活跃客户车辆上的全自动驾驶（受监督）功能，拥有巨大的领先优势。但试图在匹配特斯拉驾驶辅助功能的同时，还要自行设计硅芯片、购买昂贵的传感器并支付巨额的AI计算能力费用，是一场巨大的财务赌博，尤其是在Rivian仍在努力大规模生产和销售其大众市场R2车型的情况下。

But it’s unclear whether Rivian sees the R2 as its make-or-break vehicle or if solving autonomy will be the true decider. That leaves the company in the middle of a difficult balancing act: launching an ambitious, mass-market electric vehicle while simultaneously reinventing itself as a full-stack autonomous driving powerhouse.

但目前尚不清楚Rivian是将R2视为其成败的关键车型，还是将解决自动驾驶问题视为真正的决定性因素。这使得该公司陷入了一种艰难的平衡：在推出雄心勃勃的大众市场电动汽车的同时，还要将自己重塑为全栈自动驾驶领域的强力竞争者。

Of course, the feature itself needs to work for Rivian to succeed. During the call, Scaringe revealed that he has been using the new point-to-point driving system in his own commute to the office every day, calling it “a wonderful” experience.

当然，要让Rivian取得成功，该功能本身必须有效。在电话会议中，Scaringe透露他每天都在自己的通勤路上使用这套新的点对点驾驶系统，并称其为“美妙的”体验。

But Scaringe was cagey about other details. When asked about Rivian’s take rate for its Autonomy Plus package — in other words, what percentage of Rivian buyers who purchase or subscribe to the software out of the total customer base — the chief executive declined to share the exact number. “The take rate on Autonomy Plus has exceeded our expectations,” he said, “and we’re quite encouraged by it.”

但Scaringe对其他细节守口如瓶。当被问及Rivian的Autonomy Plus套餐的采用率（即在总客户群中购买或订阅该软件的Rivian买家比例）时，这位首席执行官拒绝透露具体数字。“Autonomy Plus的采用率超出了我们的预期，”他说，“我们对此感到非常振奋。”

Rivian’s execs are no doubt envious of Tesla’s take rates for FSD: Over 75 percent of new Tesla buyers in North America opted to get FSD in the third quarter of 2026, the company recently reported. Meanwhile, Rivian reported $605 million in revenue from software and subscription services in Q3 2026, a 45 percent increase year over year. And Rivian brought in $256 million in profit in software and services, up $102 million from last year, with a strong 42 percent profit margin.

Rivian的高管们无疑羡慕特斯拉FSD的采用率：据特斯拉最近报告，2026年第三季度，超过75%的北美新特斯拉买家选择了FSD。与此同时，Rivian报告称2026年第三季度软件和订阅服务收入为6.05亿美元，同比增长45%。Rivian在软件和服务方面获得了2.56亿美元的利润，比去年增加了1.02亿美元，利润率高达42%。

Rivian will likely spend more money than it brings in as it keeps buying expensive computers and AI systems. On the call, the company pointed out that computer chips, memory, and electronics are getting pricier. It also warned that adding two processors and costly lidar sensors to some R2 models could eat into the profits it hoped to make by building the vehicle in large numbers.

随着Rivian不断购买昂贵的计算机和AI系统，其支出很可能会超过收入。在电话会议上，该公司指出计算机芯片、内存和电子元件的价格正在上涨。它还警告称，在部分R2车型中增加两个处理器和昂贵的激光雷达传感器，可能会蚕食其通过大规模生产该车型所期望获得的利润。

The point-to-point system will face its own hurdles, including edge cases and the complexities of urban driving. A vehicle crash could damage Rivian’s brand and reputation, just as Tesla has experienced many times with FSD. And even though Rivian intends to roll out the feature to require active driver supervision, the company will likely face legal challenges when things inevitably go wrong.

点对点系统将面临自身的障碍，包括边缘情况和城市驾驶的复杂性。车辆碰撞可能会损害Rivian的品牌和声誉，正如特斯拉在FSD上多次经历的那样。尽管Rivian打算推出的该功能需要驾驶员主动监督，但当不可避免地出现问题时，该公司很可能会面临法律挑战。

To be sure, Rivian couldn’t afford to sit on the sidelines and concede the autonomous crown to Tesla and Waymo. Self-driving tech could help Rivian post big, software-company-style profits, but paying for expensive AI development while also trying to build the R2 at scale makes the next year or two its riskiest period ever.

可以肯定的是，Rivian无法袖手旁观，将自动驾驶的桂冠拱手让给特斯拉和Waymo。自动驾驶技术可以帮助Rivian实现类似软件公司的大额利润，但在支付昂贵的AI开发费用的同时还要努力大规模生产R2，这使得未来一两年成为其有史以来风险最高的时期。