Cracks are emerging in the AI spending boom
Cracks are emerging in the AI spending boom
Investors are getting nervous about AI infrastructure spending just as the Big Tech companies double down. Over the past two weeks, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft have outlined plans to spend more than $740 billion on capital expenditures this year, which Wall Street is reading as AI infrastructure spending, including data centers and chips.
随着大型科技公司加倍投入，投资者对人工智能基础设施支出的担忧日益加剧。在过去两周里，Alphabet、亚马逊、Meta 和微软概述了今年超过 7400 亿美元的资本支出计划，华尔街将其解读为包括数据中心和芯片在内的人工智能基础设施支出。
Earlier in the AI boom, investors largely rewarded such big outlays, viewing them as a sign of confidence in the technology’s growth potential. But as we enter the fourth quarter, that enthusiasm seems to be giving way to concerns about negative free cash flow (spending more cash than a company brings in), mounting debt, and whether these enormous investments will ever generate enough returns.
在人工智能热潮初期，投资者大多对这些巨额支出持奖励态度，将其视为对该技术增长潜力充满信心的标志。但随着我们进入第四季度，这种热情似乎正在让位于对负自由现金流（支出超过公司收入）、债务增加以及这些巨额投资能否产生足够回报的担忧。
The anxiety spilled across the market on Friday. The Nasdaq fell 2.9%, and chip stocks took a drubbing, too: Nvidia dropped 4%, Broadcom more than 5%, and Qualcomm 11%. Alphabet, which plummeted 12% on Thursday, its worst day on record, wiping out $500 billion in market value, fell again.
这种焦虑情绪在周五蔓延至整个市场。纳斯达克指数下跌 2.9%，芯片股也遭受重创：英伟达下跌 4%，博通下跌超过 5%，高通下跌 11%。周四暴跌 12%（创下历史最差单日表现并蒸发 5000 亿美元市值）的 Alphabet 再次下跌。
A big part of the concern is that companies that used to have overflowing free cash flow from their core businesses are getting hit as AI threatens the economics of those businesses. Alphabet provided the clearest example of that this week. Google’s parent company reported negative free cash flow of $9.1 billion in the third quarter, its second consecutive quarter in the red, even as quarterly capex grew to $51.4 billion.
担忧的一个重要原因是，随着人工智能威胁到核心业务的经济效益，那些曾经拥有充沛自由现金流的公司正受到冲击。Alphabet 本周提供了最明显的例子。这家谷歌母公司报告第三季度自由现金流为负 91 亿美元，这是其连续第二个季度出现亏损，尽管其季度资本支出增长至 514 亿美元。
Alphabet expects to spend up to $205 billion this year, and expects that spending to keep rising in 2027. Meanwhile, the wild success of AI Mode — Google’s AI-powered chatbot feature built directly into Search — is eating into the company’s money-maker. Google’s Search advertising business, which makes up roughly half of its revenue, saw growth slow to 12%, its weakest pace in five quarters.
Alphabet 预计今年支出将高达 2050 亿美元，并预计该支出在 2027 年将继续增加。与此同时，谷歌直接内置于搜索中的人工智能聊天机器人功能“AI Mode”的巨大成功，正在蚕食公司的盈利来源。谷歌的搜索广告业务约占其总收入的一半，其增长速度放缓至 12%，为五个季度以来的最低水平。
That leaves Google walking a tightrope. It’s spending billions on the AI technology that could undermine the search business that pays it. Amazon is in a similar boat after reporting negative free cash flow of $42.4 billion over the past 12 months, compared with $14.8 billion in positive free cash flow the year before. The company says it expects to spend $220 billion in capex this year.
这让谷歌如履薄冰。它正在斥巨资投入可能破坏其核心搜索业务的人工智能技术。亚马逊也处于类似的境地，过去 12 个月的自由现金流为负 424 亿美元，而前一年则为正 148 亿美元。该公司表示，预计今年资本支出将达到 2200 亿美元。
Even though revenue at its cloud business, AWS, grew 39%, Amazon’s stock tumbled 7% after it reported earnings Thursday. Meta is also burning cash, reporting negative free cash flow of $2.1 billion in the third quarter as capex outpaced its operating cash. It’s guiding to as much as $145 billion in capex this year.
尽管其云业务 AWS 的收入增长了 39%，但亚马逊在周四发布财报后股价仍下跌了 7%。Meta 也在烧钱，第三季度自由现金流为负 21 亿美元，资本支出超过了其运营现金流。该公司预计今年的资本支出将高达 1450 亿美元。
The company noted that Muse, its new free personal AI agent, is a bit of a money pit (it’s “very compute-intensive to run,” CEO Mark Zuckerberg has said). But ad revenue grew 26%. Still, no amount of good news saved Meta from taking a 10% hit on its stock last week.
该公司指出，其新的免费个人人工智能代理 Muse 是一个“烧钱坑”（首席执行官马克·扎克伯格曾表示，它“运行起来非常消耗算力”）。尽管广告收入增长了 26%，但任何利好消息都未能阻止 Meta 上周股价下跌 10%。
Microsoft was the only exception when it came to free cash flow — it recorded $18.6 billion in positive free cash flow in its latest quarter, with spending on capex at $45.2 billion, less than the $50 billion it projected. Microsoft said that wasn’t an intentional pullback from AI spending, blaming delays in capacity from third-party providers. As a result, shares of smaller companies that rent out AI computing power sank.
微软是自由现金流方面的唯一例外——其最近一个季度录得 186 亿美元的正自由现金流，资本支出为 452 亿美元，低于其预期的 500 亿美元。微软表示，这并非有意缩减人工智能支出，而是归咎于第三方供应商的产能延迟。受此影响，出租人工智能算力的小型公司股价下跌。
It’s worth noting that the money to pay for all of this AI infrastructure isn’t just coming from the Big Tech companies’ profits. It’s also showing up in stock and bond sales. According to S&P Global Market Intelligence, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Oracle raised a combined $326 billion in debt in 2026, triple the amount raised last year.
值得注意的是，支付所有这些人工智能基础设施的资金不仅来自大型科技公司的利润，还来自股票和债券销售。根据标普全球市场情报的数据，微软、Alphabet、亚马逊、Meta 和甲骨文在 2026 年共筹集了 3260 亿美元的债务，是去年筹集金额的三倍。
Demand for AI compute remains strong. Google, Amazon, and Microsoft all saw gains in their cloud businesses. But investors are getting spooked by the costs of meeting that demand. These muddied waters could complicate Anthropic’s highly anticipated IPO.
对人工智能算力的需求依然强劲。谷歌、亚马逊和微软的云业务均有所增长。但投资者对满足这些需求所需的成本感到恐慌。这种混乱的局面可能会使 Anthropic 备受期待的首次公开募股（IPO）变得复杂。
The AI company filed to go public earlier this week, and its future growth depends on securing enormous amounts of compute. Financial Times reported Friday that Blackstone has warned investors the company might not qualify for an investment-grade rating after its IPO, meaning it might end up being more reliant on the hyperscalers and third-parties to fund its infrastructure ambitions.
这家人工智能公司本周早些时候提交了上市申请，其未来的增长取决于能否获得海量的算力。据《金融时报》周五报道，黑石集团已警告投资者，该公司在 IPO 后可能无法获得投资级评级，这意味着它最终可能更依赖超大规模云服务商和第三方来为其基础设施雄心提供资金。