What’s next for US energy policy after the midterm elections?

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What’s next for US energy policy after the midterm elections?

中期选举后，美国能源政策何去何从？

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY I’ve been locked in to my various screens since results from midterm elections started to roll in last night. And it didn’t take long to see the beginning of the blue wave: Democrats took control of both the US House of Representatives and the Senate, a dramatic swing from Donald Trump’s victory two years ago. While the results are striking, we probably won’t be seeing some of the big climate and energy policy shifts that have come in recent years as Congress and the presidency have changed hands. Instead, we’re entering a period of divided government, with a Congress that will likely do battle with Trump’s White House over the next two years.

执行摘要：自昨晚中期选举结果开始陆续出炉以来，我一直紧盯着各种屏幕。没过多久，“蓝色浪潮”的迹象便显现出来：民主党夺回了美国众议院和参议院的控制权，这与两年前唐纳德·特朗普的胜利相比是一个巨大的转折。尽管选举结果令人瞩目，但我们可能不会看到近年来随着国会和总统易手而出现的那种重大的气候和能源政策转变。相反，我们正进入一个政府分裂的时期，未来两年国会很可能会与特朗普的白宫展开博弈。

But even if the federal government isn’t likely to pass laws that overhaul energy and climate policy, the midterm results could be a big deal for energy, especially at the state and local level. Let’s step back for just a moment to put these results in context. Readers might remember huge laws affecting climate and energy that were passed in just the last four years. The 2022 Inflation Reduction Act included massive support for clean energy, including tax credits and government grants and loans. Then the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act essentially slashed much of the support and financial incentives in the IRA from two years before. What those two laws had in common was a period when the government was entirely united, with the Senate, House of Representatives, and presidency all controlled by the same party—the Democrats in the first case and the Republicans in the second.

即便联邦政府不太可能通过彻底改革能源和气候政策的法律，中期选举的结果对能源领域仍可能产生重大影响，特别是在州和地方层面。让我们退后一步，将这些结果置于背景中审视。读者可能还记得过去四年中通过的那些影响气候和能源的重大法律。《2022年通胀削减法案》（IRA）包含了对清洁能源的大力支持，包括税收抵免、政府拨款和贷款。随后，《2025年宏伟法案》实质上削减了IRA中大部分的支持和财政激励措施。这两项法律的共同点在于，当时政府处于完全统一的状态，参议院、众议院和总统职位均由同一政党控制——前者是民主党，后者是共和党。

Now Democrats have captured a majority in both the Senate and the House. But Donald Trump is still in the White House. And crucially, neither chamber is anywhere close to a two-thirds Democratic majority. That’s the ratio that would be needed to override a presidential veto. So even if Congress puts together new legislation to boost climate measures and clean energy, Trump will need to sign it—and that dramatically narrows the scope of what might happen legislatively between now and the next election. There could be some bipartisan compromises. One interesting bit of legislation to watch immediately after the election is what happens with permitting reform. In late September, a bipartisan group of senators put forward a bill that would overhaul how new energy projects are reviewed and approved in the US. The law aims to cut red tape and speed up the permitting process. The Senate is set to vote on that package, called the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act, on November 9, before the new Congress takes control in January.

目前，民主党已在参众两院获得多数席位。但唐纳德·特朗普仍入主白宫。至关重要的是，两院的民主党席位都远未达到三分之二的多数。这是推翻总统否决权所需的比例。因此，即使国会制定了促进气候措施和清洁能源的新立法，也需要特朗普签字——这极大地缩小了从现在到下次选举期间立法可能取得的进展空间。可能会有一些两党妥协。选举后值得立即关注的一项有趣立法是关于许可改革的进展。9月下旬，一个两党参议员小组提出了一项法案，旨在彻底改革美国对新能源项目的审查和批准方式。该法律旨在减少繁文缛节并加快许可流程。参议院定于11月9日对该方案（即《两党美国负担能力与就业法案》）进行投票，此时新一届国会尚未在1月份接管权力。

The White House has supported the bill, and it could pass the Senate if just a handful of Democrats join the Republican majority. But now, we might see Democrats wait until next year to try to renegotiate a deal, though anything would still need to pass muster with Trump. With Democratic control of Congress, we’ll likely see much more scrutiny of Trump and agencies controlled by his appointees. Democratic leaders have already signaled plans to go after leaders like EPA commissioner Lee Zeldin over cuts to staff and investments. Democrats will have the power to subpoena cabinet members and open investigations.

白宫支持该法案，如果仅有少数民主党人加入共和党多数派，它就有可能在参议院获得通过。但现在，我们可能会看到民主党人等到明年再尝试重新谈判协议，尽管任何方案仍需通过特朗普的审查。随着民主党控制国会，我们可能会看到对特朗普及其任命官员所控制机构的更多审查。民主党领导人已经表示计划针对环保署署长李·泽尔丁（Lee Zeldin）等领导人，追究其削减人员和投资的责任。民主党将有权传唤内阁成员并展开调查。

Looking beyond the national results, a major trend to watch moving forward will be local action. Democrats swept local control of Pennsylvania, and officials there have signaled plans to support renewable energy and efforts to cut greenhouse-gas emissions. Democrats also took control of the Georgia Public Service Commission for the first time in 30 years. The group regulates electric utilities, essentially controlling much of the grid’s buildout. Among the broadest effects of these election results, though, will be for the data center industry. According to tracking from Ballotpedia, there were 41 local ballot questions related to data centers. And overwhelmingly, voters chose to restrict their development. Nearly every single one of these measures looks set to come down against data center development, as of the morning of November 4.

放眼全国选举结果之外，未来值得关注的一个主要趋势是地方行动。民主党横扫了宾夕法尼亚州的地方控制权，当地官员已表示计划支持可再生能源和减少温室气体排放的努力。民主党还30年来首次夺取了佐治亚州公共服务委员会的控制权。该机构负责监管电力公用事业，实质上控制着大部分电网的建设。然而，这些选举结果影响最广泛的领域之一将是数据中心行业。根据Ballotpedia的追踪，有41个与数据中心相关的地方投票议题。绝大多数选民选择限制其发展。截至11月4日上午，几乎每一项此类措施似乎都将不利于数据中心的发展。

And AI critics fared well in their races, too. Democrat Gina Hinojosa won the governor’s seat in Texas, ousting Republican incumbent Greg Abbott. During her campaign, Hinojosa called for a law to completely pause data center development; if passed, it could have major implications for both the state’s grid and the data center industry more broadly. We might not see dramatic new climate- or energy-related federal legislation between now and the next major US election. But many voters signaled, and quite loudly, that they wanted a change. We’ll see how much will shift in the next two years, and where that leaves us.

人工智能的批评者在竞选中也表现不俗。民主党人吉娜·伊诺霍萨（Gina Hinojosa）赢得了德克萨斯州州长席位，击败了共和党现任州长格雷格·阿博特（Greg Abbott）。在竞选期间，伊诺霍萨呼吁制定一项法律，全面暂停数据中心的发展；如果该法案获得通过，可能会对该州的电网以及更广泛的数据中心行业产生重大影响。从现在到下一次美国大选，我们可能不会看到重大的气候或能源相关联邦立法。但许多选民非常响亮地表达了他们想要改变的意愿。我们将拭目以待未来两年会有多少变化，以及这会将我们引向何方。