Kalshi court losses pile up as judges refuse to block state gambling laws

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Kalshi is having a bad week in the federal court system. Two circuit appeals courts rejected the prediction market’s latest attempts to block state gambling laws in Connecticut, New York, and Nevada. Kalshi is separately facing a new lawsuit filed by the Arkansas attorney general. In all cases involving Kalshi and state governments around the US, the main issue is whether state gambling laws apply to prediction markets despite Kalshi’s claim that its platform offers “swaps” that can only be regulated by the US Commodity Futures Exchange (CFTC).

Kalshi 在联邦法院系统度过了糟糕的一周。两个巡回上诉法院驳回了该预测市场试图阻止康涅狄格州、纽约州和内华达州实施州博彩法的最新尝试。此外，Kalshi 还面临阿肯色州总检察长提起的诉讼。在所有涉及 Kalshi 与美国各州政府的案件中，核心争议在于：尽管 Kalshi 声称其平台提供的是只能由美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）监管的“掉期合约”，但州博彩法是否适用于此类预测市场。

The Trump administration is on Kalshi’s side, with Donald Trump Jr. serving as an advisor to Kalshi in exchange for a generous equity deal. “Kalshi insists that its products are not gambling,” but “Arkansas law is concerned with substance, not semantics,” Arkansas Attorney General Tim Griffin said yesterday when announcing his lawsuit against Kalshi. Kalshi’s prediction market lets customers “wager money on the outcome of just about anything” despite the fact that “gambling on an unregulated platform is squarely prohibited by Arkansas law,” he said.

特朗普政府站在 Kalshi 一边，小唐纳德·特朗普担任 Kalshi 的顾问，并以此换取了丰厚的股权交易。阿肯色州总检察长蒂姆·格里芬（Tim Griffin）在昨日宣布对 Kalshi 提起诉讼时表示：“Kalshi 坚称其产品不是博彩，但阿肯色州法律关注的是实质，而非语义。”他指出，Kalshi 的预测市场允许客户“就几乎任何事情的结果进行金钱投注”，尽管“在不受监管的平台上进行博彩在阿肯色州法律中是明确禁止的”。

Griffin’s lawsuit was filed in an Arkansas state court. Kalshi violated state law by offering gambling to people as young as 18 and by failing to pay taxes or comply with other restrictions, Griffin said. Arkansas law permits gambling within certain limits, such as an age minimum of 21 years old for electronic wagering accounts. “Instead of obtaining the licenses, submitting to the oversight, complying with the restrictions, and paying the taxes required of lawful gambling operators in Arkansas, Kalshi opened its platforms to Arkansas consumers, including individuals as young as 18 years old, encouraged them to wager real money on sporting and entertainment events, and profited from those wagers,” Griffin said.

格里芬的诉讼是在阿肯色州地方法院提起的。格里芬称，Kalshi 向年仅 18 岁的年轻人提供博彩服务，且未缴纳税款或遵守其他限制规定，违反了州法律。阿肯色州法律在一定范围内允许博彩，例如电子投注账户的最低年龄限制为 21 岁。格里芬表示：“Kalshi 没有获得许可、接受监管、遵守限制并缴纳阿肯色州合法博彩运营商所需的税款，而是向阿肯色州消费者（包括年仅 18 岁的个人）开放了平台，鼓励他们对体育和娱乐赛事进行真钱投注，并从中获利。”

Arkansas filed its lawsuit about a week after Utah Attorney General Derek Brown lodged criminal charges against Kalshi and its founders for violating Utah’s ban on gambling. A federal judge in Utah previously ruled that Utah can enforce its anti-gambling laws against Kalshi. Many other states are trying to enforce their gambling laws against Kalshi, and the Supreme Court may ultimately decide whether they are able to do so. We contacted Kalshi today and will update this article if it provides a response.

在阿肯色州提起诉讼约一周前，犹他州总检察长德里克·布朗（Derek Brown）对 Kalshi 及其创始人提起刑事指控，指控其违反了犹他州的博彩禁令。此前，犹他州的一名联邦法官裁定，犹他州可以对 Kalshi 执行其反博彩法。许多其他州也正试图对 Kalshi 执行其博彩法，最高法院最终可能会决定它们是否有权这样做。我们今天联系了 Kalshi，如果对方做出回应，我们将更新本文。

For example, the US Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit ruled in August that Nevada can stop the prediction market from allowing sports bets. A panel of three judges unanimously found that sports bets on Kalshi are not swaps and can be regulated under state gambling laws. Kalshi sought to overturn the judges’ panel ruling by seeking a rehearing in front of the entire Ninth Circuit appeals court, which has 29 judges. None of the judges supported a rehearing. “The full court has been advised of the petition for rehearing en banc and no judge has requested a vote on whether to rehear the matter en banc,” the court said in a ruling yesterday.

例如，美国第九巡回上诉法院在 8 月裁定，内华达州可以阻止该预测市场提供体育博彩。由三名法官组成的合议庭一致认为，Kalshi 上的体育博彩并非掉期合约，可以根据州博彩法进行监管。Kalshi 试图通过向由 29 名法官组成的第九巡回上诉法院全体法官申请重审来推翻该合议庭的裁决。但没有法官支持重审。法院在昨日的裁决中表示：“全体法官已获悉全席重审的请求，且没有法官要求就此事项进行全席重审投票。”

Kalshi also lost on Tuesday in the Second Circuit, where it was trying to overturn earlier losses to New York and Connecticut. Kalshi sought preliminary injunctions to prevent New York and Connecticut from enforcing their gambling laws, but both requests were rejected by US district court judges. A plaintiff seeking a preliminary injunction must show that it is likely to succeed on the merits of its case, and judges decided that Kalshi had not done so. The Second Circuit appeals court considered Kalshi’s losses to New York and Connecticut in a single case and upheld the lower-court decisions.

周二，Kalshi 在第二巡回法院也遭遇败诉，此前它试图推翻在纽约州和康涅狄格州的败诉。Kalshi 曾寻求初步禁令以阻止纽约州和康涅狄格州执行其博彩法，但两项请求均被美国地方法院法官驳回。寻求初步禁令的原告必须证明其案件胜诉的可能性较大，而法官认为 Kalshi 未能做到这一点。第二巡回上诉法院将 Kalshi 在纽约州和康涅狄格州的败诉合并审理，并维持了下级法院的判决。

The CFTC, claiming sole authority to regulate platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, has sued Arizona, Connecticut, Illinois, Kentucky, Minnesota, New Mexico, New York, Rhode Island, Utah, and Wisconsin. Kalshi’s biggest win came in April in the Third Circuit, where the appeals court ruled that New Jersey cannot regulate sports bets on prediction markets. Judges there decided that wagers on Kalshi meet the federal definition of swaps, defined under US law as contracts in which payment “is dependent on the occurrence, nonoccurrence, or the extent of the occurrence of an event or contingency associated with a potential financial, economic, or commercial consequence.”

美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）声称拥有监管 Kalshi 和 Polymarket 等平台的唯一权力，并已起诉亚利桑那州、康涅狄格州、伊利诺伊州、肯塔基州、明尼苏达州、新墨西哥州、纽约州、罗德岛州、犹他州和威斯康星州。Kalshi 在 4 月份于第三巡回法院取得了最大胜利，该上诉法院裁定新泽西州无权监管预测市场上的体育博彩。那里的法官认为，Kalshi 上的投注符合美国法律对掉期合约的定义，即支付“取决于与潜在金融、经济或商业后果相关的事件或偶然事件的发生、不发生或发生程度”的合同。