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A new bill could change how the US builds energy infrastructure

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY A sweeping bit of legislation designed to cut red tape could speed up the buildout of energy infrastructure in the US. With the dust barely settled on this week’s momentous midterms, the Senate is set to vote on the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act (BAAJA) on November 9. It’s a plan that could finally start an overhaul of the slow, complicated process for getting energy projects approved, as part of something called permitting reform. People on both sides of the political aisle have been pushing for this type of change for some years. The key question is whether this will cut greenhouse-gas emissions from the US energy sector or push them higher still.

执行摘要：一项旨在减少繁文缛节的全面立法可能会加速美国能源基础设施的建设。随着本周重大中期选举尘埃落定，参议院定于 11 月 9 日对《两党美国负担能力与就业法案》（BAAJA）进行投票。作为所谓的“许可改革”的一部分，该计划最终可能启动对缓慢且复杂的能源项目审批流程的彻底改革。多年来，政治两派的人士一直在推动这种变革。关键问题在于，这究竟会减少美国能源行业的温室气体排放，还是会使其进一步增加。

The federal permitting system is designed to protect the environment against industrial pollution from large projects like power plants, transmission lines, and natural-gas pipelines. Today, permitting is governed by a range of laws, including the National Environmental Policy Act and the Clean Water Act. And if there’s one thing you might know about the current state of permitting in the US it’s that it’s slow and incredibly complicated. So in its 417 pages, BAAJA attempts to tighten things up. The bill has provisions that narrow the sorts of projects that need to apply for federal permits and others that enact deadlines in hopes of speeding up a process that today can take years. (There are also specific provisions about transmission planning, mining, and the rest of the kitchen sink; this thing is dense.)

联邦许可制度旨在保护环境，防止发电厂、输电线路和天然气管道等大型项目的工业污染。如今，许可工作受《国家环境政策法》和《清洁水法》等一系列法律管辖。如果你对美国目前的许可现状有所了解，那就是它缓慢且极其复杂。因此，BAAJA 在其 417 页的篇幅中试图精简这些流程。该法案包含了一些条款，缩小了需要申请联邦许可的项目范围，并制定了最后期限，希望以此加快目前可能需要数年时间才能完成的流程。（法案中还有关于输电规划、采矿以及其他琐碎事项的具体规定；内容非常密集。）

One thing to know about this bill is that it’s largely technology neutral: It opens the doors for the buildout of projects involving both fossil fuels and renewables. So there’s a weird mishmash of legislators and outside groups supporting it. The bill’s four sponsors in the Senate are two Republicans and two Democrats. The White House has backed this permitting reform bill, with its Council of Economic Advisors finding that it would reduce review times and have economic benefits like boosting GDP. Clean energy groups like the American Clean Power Association have largely come out in favor of the bill too, with the group’s analysis finding that it could unlock 350 gigawatts of new clean energy for the grid.

关于这项法案，有一点需要了解，那就是它在很大程度上是技术中立的：它为化石燃料和可再生能源项目的建设敞开了大门。因此，支持该法案的立法者和外部团体组成了一个奇怪的混合体。该法案在参议院的四位发起人包括两名共和党人和两名民主党人。白宫支持这项许可改革法案，其经济顾问委员会认为，该法案将缩短审查时间，并带来促进国内生产总值（GDP）增长等经济效益。美国清洁能源协会等清洁能源团体也大多对该法案表示支持，该组织的分析发现，它可能为电网释放 350 吉瓦的新清洁能源。

Some environmental groups, however, oppose the bill, or parts of it. An assessment from the Natural Resources Defense Council says the parts about transmission could have substantial benefits for the grid, but the narrowing of environmental reviews could be damaging for public and private lands. Many in the climate world have long been calling for permitting reform, arguing that renewables stand to benefit more than fossil fuels. The thinking is that solar and wind power are some of the cheapest sources available today, so if we unlock the ability to build more energy, they are likely to win out economically.

然而，一些环保组织反对该法案或其部分内容。自然资源保护委员会的一项评估指出，关于输电的部分可能对电网有重大益处，但缩减环境审查范围可能会对公共和私人土地造成损害。气候界的许多人长期以来一直呼吁进行许可改革，认为可再生能源比化石燃料更能从中受益。他们的想法是，太阳能和风能是当今最便宜的能源来源，因此如果我们释放出建设更多能源的能力，它们很可能在经济上胜出。

A few early analyses have tried to quantify just what BAAJA would mean for emissions in the US. One, from the think tank Rhodium Group, found that in the best-case scenario, the bill would cut economy-wide emissions by 4%, reduce annual energy bills by $78 per household, and add 200 gigawatts of new clean energy by 2040. In the worst case, emissions would stay about the same. Another report, from the nonprofit research group Resources for the Future, found that the bill could cut power-sector emissions 6% by 2041 and save more than $350 billion on system costs by midcentury.

一些早期的分析试图量化 BAAJA 对美国排放量的具体影响。智库 Rhodium Group 的一项分析发现，在最佳情况下，该法案将使全经济范围的排放量减少 4%，使每个家庭的年度能源账单减少 78 美元，并在 2040 年前增加 200 吉瓦的新清洁能源。在最坏的情况下，排放量将保持不变。非营利研究组织“未来资源”（Resources for the Future）的另一份报告发现，该法案可能在 2041 年前将电力部门的排放量减少 6%，并在本世纪中叶前节省超过 3500 亿美元的系统成本。

But there are some concerns that this permitting bill’s real effect would be to open the floodgates for new natural-gas plants. As data centers have put more pressure on the grid, a wave of such plants have been announced. “You get down to a trade-off between essentially growing the clean electricity industry on the one hand and then, as a compromise, growing the fossil-fuel industry on the other,” says Kevin Kircher, an energy modeler and assistant professor of mechanical engineering at Purdue. To quantify that trade-off, Kircher also modeled the potential emissions effects of the bill and found that if BAAJA had been in place in 2025, energy sector emissions would have been higher than the actual baseline. Health and mortality risks associated with air pollution would also have increased.

但也有人担心，这项许可法案的真正影响将是为新建天然气发电厂打开闸门。随着数据中心给电网带来更大压力，一批此类发电厂已宣布建设。普渡大学能源建模师兼机械工程助理教授凯文·基尔彻（Kevin Kircher）表示：“你最终要在发展清洁电力行业和作为妥协发展化石燃料行业之间进行权衡。”为了量化这种权衡，基尔彻还对该法案的潜在排放影响进行了建模，发现如果 BAAJA 在 2025 年实施，能源行业的排放量将高于实际基准线。与空气污染相关的健康和死亡风险也会增加。

This bill is scheduled for a Senate vote on November 9, well before the next Congress takes control. It’s not clear what the dramatic victories for Democrats might mean for the legislation, which was expected to pass the Senate with largely Republican support if a few Democrats got on board. Democrats could decide to wait for next year, when they’ll have control of both chambers. But any deal would ultimately need to win Trump’s signature, limiting what a future bill might be able to change. In a world where permitting new projects is easier, we’ll see more clean energy, but we’ll see more natural gas, too. And while prices could get lower, that could push demand for electricity higher, leading to more emissions overall. Simplifying the permitting system and cutting red tape is a worthy goal. But when it comes to emissions, it still really matters what, exactly, you want to build.

该法案定于 11 月 9 日在参议院进行投票，远在下一届国会接管之前。民主党的巨大胜利对这项立法意味着什么尚不清楚，该法案此前预计在获得少数民主党人支持的情况下，主要依靠共和党的支持在参议院获得通过。民主党人可能会决定等到明年，届时他们将控制参众两院。但任何协议最终都需要获得特朗普的签署，这限制了未来法案可能做出的改变。在一个新项目许可更容易的世界里，我们将看到更多的清洁能源，但也会看到更多的天然气。虽然价格可能会降低，但这可能会推高电力需求，从而导致整体排放量增加。简化许可制度和减少繁文缛节是一个值得追求的目标。但就排放而言，你究竟想建造什么仍然至关重要。